Navigating market volatility while finding opportunities

From mid-term elections to market volatility

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Webcasts this week

An asset allocation playbook: Building stronger portfolios in an evolving landscape

November 30, 2022 @ 11:00 am ET; featuring Corey Hill, Amy Moroz

Rising from the ashes: New opportunities in fixed income

December 1, 2022 @ 11:00 am ET; featuring Bob Michele, Steven Lear, Andrew Norelli

1Q23 Asset Allocation Views

December 5, 2022 @ 11:00 am ET; featuring Dr. David Kelly, Michael Albrecht

Investment strategy update: Evolving opportunities in value investing

December 8, 2022 @ 11 am ET; featuring Clare Hart, Andrew Brandon, David Silberman

JPMorgan Strategic Income Opportunities Fund Update

December 16, 2022 @ 11 am ET; featuring Bill Eigen

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Have global markets reached a turning point?

For many investors, the “pivot” promise from October’s CPI print elicited a sigh of relief. Given that stock prices are higher, bond yields are lower and the dollar has softened in the weeks after the inflation reading, it would appear that markets have reached a turning point.

How do the midterm elections impact the outlook for markets and the economy?

Markets often rally after elections, and the 2022 midterms were no exception with markets up 5.9% during election week. In the future, market prognosticators will point to this as another data point confirming the pattern of post-election rallies.

What is the outlook for long-term returns?

The start of this month saw the release of our 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, where we forecast economic growth, inflation, and asset returns over a 10–15-year horizon. The current report stands in stark contrast to prior years, which were characterized by a relatively muted outlook for returns from both stocks and bonds.

How can Millennials ride out the current market storm?

2022 has been a year of remarkable volatility across asset classes. Stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies have been rocked by a confluence of challenges that could be described as a “perfect storm.”

Is a slower rate hike path on the horizon?

The committee’s tone remained hawkish and inflation-vigilant, but investors took initial relief at new statement language acknowledging the significant amount of tightening the Federal Reserve (Fed) has already delivered and the lags with which it will affect the economy and inflation.

Is this a bear market rally?

Markets picked up steam recently, anticipating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could follow a 75 bps rate hike in November with a smaller 50 bps rate increase in December. Markets have been rallying since mid-October, up 7% since the mid-month low. But is this just another bear market rally?

What are the investment implications of China’s Party Congress?

As usual, China has been going through its own economic, policy, and political cycle. While the rest of the global economy is slowing down and facing the possibility of recession ahead due to elevated inflation and rapid policy tightening, China’s economy began to slow down over a year ago and already went through a contraction in the second quarter.

What to do with fixed income?

The hallmark of core bonds is their diversification benefits and lower volatility to risk assets, which make them an important ballast in portfolios. However, with bonds down double digits this year , investors are struggling with their fixed income allocations.

After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?

The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.

Are falling job openings a sign of cooling labor markets?

For investors, while it may seem reasonable to assume a fall in job openings would precede an uptick in the unemployment rate, the still huge gap between labor demand and supply suggests that job openings can come down further without meaningfully pushing up the unemployment rate.

Are we already in a recession?

Looking ahead, we recognize that recession risk has risen. That said, it seems premature to make a call that we are already in recession today.

Should I time the bottom in today’s market?

Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.

Are we in or headed towards a recession?

The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

How do investors navigate market volatility?

The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.

Tax planning? Or a plan for taxes?

At the end of the day, active tax management is a way to take advantage of volatility. Volatility is a hallmark of the capital markets, but it also tends to derail investors and undermine their ability to reach their long-term retirement goals.

Is market timing worth it during periods of intense volatility?

2022 will likely remain volatile for equity markets, as central banks normalize alongside persistently hot-inflation and geopolitical issues result in prolonged uncertainty.

Has the outlook for monetary and fiscal policy changed?

While geopolitical tensions have reached a boiling point overseas, American investors have recently faced a set of potentially market-moving events at home: President Biden’s first State of the Union address and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony in front of Congress on monetary policy.

How should I think about geopolitics and volatility?

Despite the horrible human and social impact, the conflict in Eastern Europe is currently noise for the market. Time will tell how things evolve, but the key risk is that higher commodity prices – and energy prices in particular – fail to be transitory.

Should I worry about Russia/Ukraine tensions impacting markets?

Geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine have been a source of market volatility, especially since February 11th when President Biden warned there was a “very distinct possibility” of a coming Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Investing with Composure

Uncertainty around geopolitics and monetary policy have significantly increased volatility. Rather than fear volatile markets investors should maintain their composure by staying focused on long-term economic and market expectations.