The week in review

• Retail sales rose 0.3% m/m
• Import prices fell -0.1% m/m
• Ind. production increased 1.1% m/m
• Housing starts at 1.530mm
• Existing home sales at 6.85mm
• Jobless claims at 742k

The week ahead

• FOMC minutes
• Flash mfg. and services PMIs
• 3Q20 GPD (2nd estimate)
• Personal income
• Durable goods
• Consumer confidence/sentiment
• New home sales

Thought of the week
China’s October activity data showed that the economy continues to recover, with annual growth rates in industrial production (6.9%), fixed asset investment (1.8%) and retail sales (4.3%) picking up steadily. Notably, last month’s consumer spending came in below expectations, but the recent Single’s Day shows that demand remains strong in China. This week’s chart highlights that the 24-hour shopping event, held annually on November 11, has consistently surpassed U.S. holiday sales in previous years. In 2020, Single’s Day was extended to an 11-day shopping festival and sold $74.1 billion of merchandise. In comparison, Amazon’s 48-hour Prime Day event, which was delayed from July to October this year, sold $10.4 billion, and Cyber 5, the 5-day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is expected to sell $39.8 billion according to Adobe Analytics. This amounts close to $50 billion in sales in the U.S., which is still significantly dwarfed by Chinese consumption. Going forward, we expect this trend to continue to hold over the next decade with the rise of the middle class population, and investors should make sure they have enough exposure to tap into this consumer story.

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