Asset Class Views

Global Asset Allocation Views 3Q21

Amid above-trend global growth, we overweight stocks, favoring cyclical regions. We underweight duration and pared our credit overweight. Inflation risks are fading, but we’re watching risks related to vaccine/virus data, earnings and policy.

Global Fixed Income Views 3Q21

With central banks committed to over-accommodation, Above Trend Growth remains our base case (at 90%); the probability of Recession and Crisis are both at just 5%. Our best ideas include U.S. and European high yield, bank loans, bank capital notes.

Global Equity Views 3Q21

Corporate profits are breaking records and we expect robust growth in 2022. But high valuations, especially for fast-growing companies, restrain our enthusiasm. We have modest return expectations overall, seeing good opportunities for stock selection.

Factor Views 3Q21

Factors generally performed well while volatility remained high. Equity value, quality and momentum rose early in the quarter but fell in June as market leadership shifted.