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    Insights to empower better decisions

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    Weekly Market Recap
    New U.S. 09 - 18 - 2023
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    Discover J.P. Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, drawing on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide.

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    Market Commentary

    What are the investment implications of the September FOMC meeting?

    As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50% at its September meeting.

    Read more

    The transformative power of generative AI

    Last quarter, 40% of S&P 500 companies mentioned artificial intelligence (AI) in their earnings calls – more than double from a year earlier – and their collective investments in AI are exploding.

    Read more

    What do financial conditions tell us about future growth?

    With the possibility of tighter financial conditions going forward, investors may be well served by looking for any signs that tighter conditions are beginning to weigh on activity.

    Read more

    What is the outlook for the relationship between stocks and bonds?

    Over the long run, duration will be an investor’s friend for both asset classes: not only will lower rates push bond prices higher, but a lower opportunity cost of owning equities and easy monetary policy should allow valuations and earnings expectations to move higher.

    Read more

    Have the rest of EM been faring as badly as China?

    While what happens in China will continue to influence growth, sentiment, and performance in the broader EM universe, powerful structural and cyclical themes can lead to differentiated performance.

    Read more

    How might the outlook for real yields impact market performance?

    We expect a slower growth and cooling inflation environment will allow the Fed to gradually reduce rates next year, thus stabilizing real yields and potentially biasing them lower.

    Read more

    What do I need to know after summer vacation?

    With many parents (and investors!) taking the end of summer to be with their families and go to the beach one last time, kids are not the only ones who need a refresher before they head back to the classroom; in today’s blog, we try to help parents get ready to go “back to school.”

    Read more

    What is really going on with real assets?

    2023 has seen more office conversion activity – while sometimes this can be easier said than done, it does suggest that there is an evolving opportunity in the office space for investors who can deploy additional capital.

    Read more

    Is the excitement toward Indian equities justified?

    India’s smaller share in global manufacturing exports and its lower dependence on the China reopening story helps to explain its strength versus other export-oriented Asian economies’ struggles.

    Read more

    What is ‘up’ with rates?

    While the probability of a soft landing has risen given the generally strong incoming data, the concern is that most leading indicators continue to point to recession.

    Read more

    Will U.S. investment grade credit spreads remain tight amid economic uncertainty?

    The rally in corporate credit may have caught some investors by surprise given the consensus that a recession would materialize this year, a historically bad environment for credit spreads.

    Read more

    Is it true that when the U.S. sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold?

    Looking back at the past six U.S. stock market declines greater than 10%, international has not always sold off more. In some instances, it has performed in line or even better.

    Read more

    2Q23 earnings: Resilient

    This combination of resilient growth, better than expected profits and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence has led to a strong rally in U.S. equities so far this year.

    Read more

    What is the outlook for oil prices?

    The likely cause for declining oil prices is increased U.S. production, which is expected to reach an all-time high in 2023.

    Read more

    Will the Federal Reserve hike rates again?

    While the Fed may need some more convincing over the next two meetings, it seems reasonable to expect this tightening cycle will end this year.

    Read more

    What is the outlook for private equity?

    It would not be surprising to see a more notable re-rating in valuations later this year or in early 2024; this, in turn, will create opportunity for both primary and secondary market investors.

    Read more

    Have U.S. equities rallied too much?

    Beneath the surface are two market dynamics: the megacap tech stocks, which account for the lion’s share of positive market performance year-to-date, and everything else.

    Read more

    What is the outlook for capital spending?

    The combination of slower economic growth, higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions are likely to weigh on CapEx and could be the thing that tips the U.S. economy into a mild recession.

    Read more

    What trends are persisting across alternative investments?

    Fundamentals differ significantly at the sector level. For example, office remains the weakest sector, as vacancy rates remain elevated, and firms struggle to fully exit remote working.

    Read more

    Was the June FOMC meeting a Fed pause or hawkish skip?

    Today’s announcement made it clear that the committee still needs more compelling evidence that inflation is under control and could very well tighten at least once more this summer.

    Read more

    Is the Fed getting inflation wrong?

    While labor market conditions may have had some effect on pushing up services prices, we think its impact is overstated. Over the last 4 months, more than half of the year-over-year gain in core services ex-shelter inflation has come from transportation services alone.

    Read more

    How can private infrastructure fit in my portfolio?

    Core infrastructure continues to represent a way to generate income without taking on more equity risk, while proactively hedging portfolios from the chance that inflation is harder to tame than many currently expect.

    Read more

    Will the debt ceiling aftermath push up interest rates?

    Although rates have risen across the curve in recent weeks due to debt ceiling uncertainty, more hawkish Fed expectations, and resilient economic data, the overall macro landscape is one of slowing growth and receding inflation.

    Read more

    How have higher rates impacted alternatives?

    In real estate, industrial asset valuations have barely flinched given low vacancy rates and rising rents, whereas the office space has seen (and is expected to see) further pain as we determine what the future of work will look like.

    Read more

    How will challenges in commercial real estate impact regional banks?

    Given the rapid tightening from the Federal Reserve, property values are likely to be marked down in the quarters ahead impacting loan values on bank balance sheets.

    Read more

    How sustainable is equity market performance?

    This combination of lower rates, higher equity valuations, and declining earnings – with a potential recession on the horizon – leaves us cautious on the equity market at current levels.

    Read more

    How could stress in the banking sector impact the real economy?

    A pause from the Fed is certainly welcome from a broader macro perspective, but the challenges facing local and regional banks in particular, are still prevalent.

    Read more

    Beware Medicare: Why is Medicare funding a big problem?

    For Americans planning for retirement, the obvious implication is to save and invest more. Beyond this, it has become increasingly necessary to have some assets outside of traditional 401(k)s and IRAs.

    Read more

    What happens if the U.S. breaches the debt ceiling?

    The U.S. reached its debt limit of USD 31.4 trillion on January 19th and has since been relying on funds in the Treasury General Account (TGA) and so-called “extraordinary measures” to fund its obligations.

    Read more

    How to position after a Fed pause?

    The statement language has shifted from “ongoing increases will be appropriate” to a data-dependent approach “in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate”, hinting the committee is ready to pause rate increases.

    Read more

    When will Chinese markets react to China’s economic reopening boost?

    After an initial rally of 60% from late October to late January, Chinese equities have corrected 15% and are now down marginally for the year.

    Read more

    1Q23 earnings: Better than expected

    The bottom line is that performance in U.S. equity markets so far this year has been all about rates, a theme that should persist as earnings expectations gradually align with reality.

    Read more

    Have the odds of a U.S. recession this year increased?

    The first estimate of 1Q23 real GDP showed the economy grew at a 1.1% annualized rate, below the consensus expectation for 1.9% growth.

    Read more

    What is going on with private credit?

    Moreover, many banks stepped away from riskier lending in the aftermath of 2008, creating an opportunity for private credit firms and other direct lenders to increase their market share.

    Read more

    Are inflation and employment signaling the Fed is not done?

    Those waiting for a pick-up in unemployment to signal a looming recession or that the Fed can finally declare victory may be too late.

    Read more

    Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

    Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.

    Read more

    Will the U.S. dollar go “digital”?

    These financial institutions would incorporate FedNow into their existing transfer infrastructure, so consumers, businesses and non-bank payment providers would use the system indirectly, rather than treat it as a third-party application.

    Read more

    The changing shape of Europe’s energy transition

    Accelerating efforts to achieve a green and secure energy supply are having an impact on the economy and markets.

    Read more

    Will the March CPI print force the Fed to hike in May?

    The key point, though, is that much of the “stickiness” that has been ascribed to core services may largely reflect the lingering hangover of supply chain issues, where Fed policy has little impact.

    Read more

    Is the window of opportunity closing for bond investors?

    As the Fed ponders its next step, investors should be mindful that the window of opportunity that has emerged in fixed income may slam shut quickly.

    Read more

    What mattered for equity markets in 1Q23?

    The bottom line is that performance in U.S. equity markets so far this year has been all about rates, a theme that should persist as earnings expectations gradually align with reality.

    Read more

    A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

    A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

    Read more

    What are the opportunities in municipal bonds?

    However, with a potential recession on the horizon and vulnerabilities in the financial system, investors ought to be selective, gearing towards the highest quality areas of the bond market.

    Read more

    The March FOMC decision: Is the Fed done tightening?

    In the statement, the Federal Reserve (Fed) acknowledged the potential implications of banking turmoil on the economic outlook but highlighted that at this point, it’s uncertain how big that impact will be.

    Read more

    Where will the U.S. dollar go from here?

    However, we seem to be at the beginning of a turnaround given the change in the international growth and interest rate backdrop, together with a potential shift in market leadership.

    Read more

    How do investors make sense of economic data, bank failures and central bank actions?

    Putting aside the obvious implications of the above – namely uncertainty and, in turn, volatility – it would be wise to also consider what this means for the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

    Read more

    How does the February CPI print influence the FOMC’s March rate decision?

    This highly anticipated print was overshadowed by the fallout from regional bank failures, which could also impact how the Federal Reserve (Fed) approaches its March rate decision.

    Read more

    What is the outlook for commercial real estate?

    With the U.S. housing market struggling under the weight of higher mortgage rates, higher home prices, and limited supply, more and more questions have been coming in around the outlook for commercial properties.

    Read more

    Are the stars aligning for Emerging Markets?

    While uncertainty remains about the cyclical path of U.S. policy and growth, the picture has gotten much clearer (and more positive) in China since late 2022.

    Read more

    Will higher rates return inflation to 2%?

    The recent surge in inflation has been driven by both demand and supply factors as fiscal stimulus and low rates supported a boost in demand, while lockdowns put significant pressure on supply chains.

    Read more

    Have government labor data become unreliable?

    In general, these concerns remind us that the government’s monthly jobs report should be seen as just one piece of the broader labor market mosaic.

    Read more

    Can bonds again provide both income and insurance?

    By the second half of the year, growth is likely to slow as the cumulative effects of higher rates are felt and inflation moderates as food and shelter consumer price index (CPI) soften.

    Read more

    Should Certificates of Deposit be a part of portfolio construction?

    Ultimately, the conversation around cash and traditional long-term assets should not be framed as “either/or”, but rather as “both, for different reasons.”

    Read more

    Is China unavoidable in 2023?

    Several pro-growth changes occurred late last year that investors should not ignore: support to the real estate sector, conclusion of the regulatory review of the internet sector, dialing down of geopolitical tensions – and crucially, a changing of the “Zero COVID policy".

    Read more

    Will disinflation be transitory?

    Markets had largely expected the uptick, but the underlying components showed a more mixed inflation picture compared to the broad-based declines seen in prior months.

    Read more

    How might financial conditions impact Federal Reserve rate hikes?

    Although financial conditions are tighter now than in early 2022, they have retreated significantly in recent months.

    Read more

    Is international equity outperformance sustainable this time?

    The next decade is likely to be characterized by more “normal” inflation. As a result, not all recent central bank rate hikes will be unwound - the era of free money is over.

    Read more

    How soon could the Federal Reserve finish hiking?

    The statement language and press conference were somewhat dovish.

    Read more

    Is there an opportunity in small caps?

    Importantly, however, significant valuation dispersion suggests that as investors gain more clarity about the health of the U.S. economy and trajectory of inflation and rates, small caps could lead the charge as we embark on the next bull run.

    Read more

    4Q22 Earnings: The calm before the storm?

    2022 was a year to forget in the capital markets. Stock/bond correlations turned positive and left traditional investors with nowhere to hide as volatility spiked and prices plunged.

    Read more

    Are bonds a good investment?

    Compared to the past decade, bond yields across every major sector are above their ten-year median.

    Read more

    What does the rental market mean for inflation this year?

    To have a clear view on where inflation may be heading, it is therefore worth understanding how the rental market is faring.

    Read more

    Can alternative investments deliver in 2023?

    Looking ahead to 2023 we see slower growth, a gradual deceleration in inflation, and monetary policy that remains tight; as always, this will create risks, as well as opportunities, across the spectrum of alternative investments.

    Read more

    Will the U.S. run out of funding after reaching the debt ceiling?

    For investors, we anticipate a slowdown in economic growth and inflation should bring bond yields lower, but debt ceiling risks, although certainly not our base case, could derail the bond market recovery and foment significant volatility if realized.

    Read more

    What do you expect from 4Q earnings?

    Operating leverage, which is the relationship between changes in revenue and changes in earnings, continues to be key for profitability.

    Read more

    What to do with fixed income in 2023?

    Current data suggest three realities: inflation is cooling; job growth remains firm, but is likely to moderate, as will wage growth; and services and manufacturing data point to broader economic slowing.

    Read more

    What are the investment implications of China’s reopening?

    China’s resumption of normal manufacturing activity should continue to support supply chain normalization, maintaining global inflation on its cooling trend.

    Read more

    Will diversification make a comeback in 2023?

    For long-term investors, buying the dips – in both stocks and bonds—could become attractive in 2023, and diversification could stage a comeback.

    Read more

    How will investors remember 2022?

    2022 was a roller coaster for investors with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine challenging global energy supply, central banks pivoting aggressively to combat high inflation, fading, yet still widespread effects of a global pandemic impacting consumers, businesses, and supply chains, and elevated political uncertainty shifting the landscape of economies globally. In summary, 2022 was a volatile year.

    Read more

    What is the consumer spending on?

    The past few weeks have seen much ink spilled on 2023 outlooks, with strategists and analysts suggesting an increased likelihood of recession next year as the consumer begins to show signs of stress at a time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled there is more room for rates to rise.

    Read more

    Why isn’t the market agreeing with the Federal Reserve?

    As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate target range by 0.50% to 4.25%-4.50% at its December meeting.

    Read more

    Is inflation finally slowing?

    November’s CPI report showed a second month of softening inflation despite still-elevated price growth. Headline CPI increased 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) and 7.1% year-over-year (y/y), while core CPI (ex-food and energy) increased 0.2% m/m and 6.0% y/y, all below consensus expectations.

    Read more

    Is the labor market as strong as investors fear?

    Today’s investing landscape is dominated by a sentiment that may seem odd at first glance: namely, that good news is bad news. More specifically, good news for the economy is bad news for the stock market.

    Read more

    Have international equity markets already priced in the worst?

    International equities are down -13.6% year-to-date (in U.S. dollars), with multiple contraction and weaker currencies dragging on returns, as investors price in higher rates and more uncertainty about fundamentals.

    Read more

    Just how bad (or good) is economic growth?

    The prevailing economic resiliency coincides with softening inflation, which gives the Federal Reserve an opportune window of slowing inflation but solid growth to tighten monetary policy to an appropriately restrictive stance and maintain that level for a period of time before growth starts to bite.

    Read more

    Are banks capitalized for another recession?

    Numerous data suggests the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months; 46% of professional forecasters in the Philadelphia Fed Survey project a recession, the Conference Board recession probability model predicts a 96% likelihood of recession, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve is deeply inverted which has been a decent predictor of prior recessions.

    Read more

    Have global markets reached a turning point?

    For many investors, the “pivot” promise from October’s CPI print elicited a sigh of relief. Given that stock prices are higher, bond yields are lower and the dollar has softened in the weeks after the inflation reading, it would appear that markets have reached a turning point.

    Read more

    How do the midterm elections impact the outlook for markets and the economy?

    Markets often rally after elections, and the 2022 midterms were no exception with markets up 5.9% during election week. In the future, market prognosticators will point to this as another data point confirming the pattern of post-election rallies.

    Read more

    What is the outlook for long-term returns?

    The start of this month saw the release of our 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, where we forecast economic growth, inflation, and asset returns over a 10–15-year horizon. The current report stands in stark contrast to prior years, which were characterized by a relatively muted outlook for returns from both stocks and bonds.

    Read more

    What led inflation to slow in October?

    There's still a question of whether the Fed will allow its policies to work their way through the economy, as there is still a risk that they knock the economy into a recession to combat an inflation problem that, based on this report, is receding on its own.

    Read more

    How can Millennials ride out the current market storm?

    2022 has been a year of remarkable volatility across asset classes. Stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies have been rocked by a confluence of challenges that could be described as a “perfect storm.”

    Read more

    3Q22 Earnings: Higher costs

    The third quarter saw yet another decline in the S&P 500, as concerns that higher rates and tighter monetary policy would weigh on economic activity and earnings remained top of mind for investors. While the rally in October has been refreshing, it seems unlikely it is the beginning of a new bull market; investors are looking for signs of a pivot at the Federal Reserve (Fed), whereas best case they will get a pause.

    Read more

    Is a slower rate hike path on the horizon?

    The committee’s tone remained hawkish and inflation-vigilant, but investors took initial relief at new statement language acknowledging the significant amount of tightening the Federal Reserve (Fed) has already delivered and the lags with which it will affect the economy and inflation.

    Read more

    How should I invest around the midterm elections?

    The 2022 midterm elections are just days away and many investors are wondering how these elections may impact their portfolios. Although many investors fear the impact of politics on their portfolios, history shows election-related market volatility is typically short-lived and it is policy, not politics, that influences the economy and markets over time.

    Read more

    Is this a bear market rally?

    Markets picked up steam recently, anticipating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could follow a 75 bps rate hike in November with a smaller 50 bps rate increase in December. Markets have been rallying since mid-October, up 7% since the mid-month low. But is this just another bear market rally?

    Read more

    What are the investment implications of China’s Party Congress?

    As usual, China has been going through its own economic, policy, and political cycle. While the rest of the global economy is slowing down and facing the possibility of recession ahead due to elevated inflation and rapid policy tightening, China’s economy began to slow down over a year ago and already went through a contraction in the second quarter.

    Read more

    When will earnings estimates begin to decline?

    2022 has been a volatile year, and this volatility has been almost entirely driven by fluctuations in valuations; until recently, earnings estimates had been climbing or stable.

    Read more

    What to do with fixed income?

    The hallmark of core bonds is their diversification benefits and lower volatility to risk assets, which make them an important ballast in portfolios. However, with bonds down double digits this year , investors are struggling with their fixed income allocations.

    Read more

    What should investors expect for 3Q22 earnings?

    The third quarter earnings season is set to kick-off with the large U.S. banks releasing results. Our current estimate for 3Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $53.82, representing year-over-year (y/y) growth of 3.5% and quarter-over-quarter (q/q) growth of 14.8%.

    Read more

    Does inflation impact younger and older investors differently?

    In the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, global economies are reeling in the face of decades-high inflation, brought about first by unprecedented levels of fiscal stimulus and more recently by supply-chain snarls, which in turn are largely attributable to China’s continued COVID-zero policy and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

    Read more

    After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?

    The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.

    Read more

    Are falling job openings a sign of cooling labor markets?

    For investors, while it may seem reasonable to assume a fall in job openings would precede an uptick in the unemployment rate, the still huge gap between labor demand and supply suggests that job openings can come down further without meaningfully pushing up the unemployment rate.

    Read more

    What just happened to Gilts and Sterling?

    In recent weeks, a series of fiscal and monetary developments led volatility to spike in the United Kingdom’s government bond and currency markets. By our lights, the combination of these events amplified uncertainty about the UK’s institutional architecture and the Bank of England’s commitment to sustainable monetary and fiscal policy.

    Read more

    When can the Fed stop hiking interest rates?

    During the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference, Chair Powell noted that the Committee would like to see positive real rates across the entire yield curve as one indication that they have reached an appropriate policy stance.

    Read more

    Are we in or headed towards a recession?

    The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

    Read more

    1Q22 Earnings: Don’t stop believin’

    A re-rating of valuations has led to negative equity returns year-to-date, but importantly, earnings estimates have continued to trend higher. In an environment of rising rates, earnings will be the key driver of returns.

    Read more

    Inflation: A Somewhat Sticky Situation

    As we emerge from this pandemic with inflation now rising at its fastest pace since the 1980s, the biggest question for investors is whether some of this inflation will prove “sticky”.

    Read more

    What kind of equities should I own if inflation is rising?

    The remainder of 2021 should see an acceleration in economic activity, rising inflation, and higher interest rates. In general, this dynamic should support the outperformance of value relative to growth, with attractive relative valuations acting as an additional tailwind for value outperformance.

    Read more

    What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

    It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

    Read more

    Monetary medicine of limited effectiveness

    Even with this Fed action, there will likely be calls for fiscal action to support to businesses suffering from the response to virus fears, says David Kelly.

    Read more

    On the Minds of Investors

    09/21/2023

    What are the investment implications of the September FOMC meeting?

    As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50% at its September meeting.

    Read more
    09/20/2023

    What do financial conditions tell us about future growth?

    With the possibility of tighter financial conditions going forward, investors may be well served by looking for any signs that tighter conditions are beginning to weigh on activity.

    Read more
    09/15/2023

    What is the outlook for the relationship between stocks and bonds?

    Over the long run, duration will be an investor’s friend for both asset classes: not only will lower rates push bond prices higher, but a lower opportunity cost of owning equities and easy monetary policy should allow valuations and earnings expectations to move higher.

    Read more
    09/13/2023

    Have the rest of EM been faring as badly as China?

    While what happens in China will continue to influence growth, sentiment, and performance in the broader EM universe, powerful structural and cyclical themes can lead to differentiated performance.

    Read more
    09/08/2023

    How might the outlook for real yields impact market performance?

    We expect a slower growth and cooling inflation environment will allow the Fed to gradually reduce rates next year, thus stabilizing real yields and potentially biasing them lower.

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    09/06/2023

    What do I need to know after summer vacation?

    With many parents (and investors!) taking the end of summer to be with their families and go to the beach one last time, kids are not the only ones who need a refresher before they head back to the classroom; in today’s blog, we try to help parents get ready to go “back to school.”

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    08/30/2023

    What is really going on with real assets?

    2023 has seen more office conversion activity – while sometimes this can be easier said than done, it does suggest that there is an evolving opportunity in the office space for investors who can deploy additional capital.

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    08/23/2023

    Is the excitement toward Indian equities justified?

    India’s smaller share in global manufacturing exports and its lower dependence on the China reopening story helps to explain its strength versus other export-oriented Asian economies’ struggles.

    Read more
    08/16/2023

    What is ‘up’ with rates?

    While the probability of a soft landing has risen given the generally strong incoming data, the concern is that most leading indicators continue to point to recession.

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    08/09/2023

    Will U.S. investment grade credit spreads remain tight amid economic uncertainty?

    The rally in corporate credit may have caught some investors by surprise given the consensus that a recession would materialize this year, a historically bad environment for credit spreads.

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    08/02/2023

    Is it true that when the U.S. sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold?

    Looking back at the past six U.S. stock market declines greater than 10%, international has not always sold off more. In some instances, it has performed in line or even better.

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    07/19/2023

    What is the outlook for oil prices?

    The likely cause for declining oil prices is increased U.S. production, which is expected to reach an all-time high in 2023.

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    07/19/2023

    Will the Federal Reserve hike rates again?

    While the Fed may need some more convincing over the next two meetings, it seems reasonable to expect this tightening cycle will end this year.

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    07/12/2023

    What is the outlook for private equity?

    It would not be surprising to see a more notable re-rating in valuations later this year or in early 2024; this, in turn, will create opportunity for both primary and secondary market investors.

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    07/05/2023

    Have U.S. equities rallied too much?

    Beneath the surface are two market dynamics: the megacap tech stocks, which account for the lion’s share of positive market performance year-to-date, and everything else.

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    06/28/2023

    What is the outlook for capital spending?

    The combination of slower economic growth, higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions are likely to weigh on CapEx and could be the thing that tips the U.S. economy into a mild recession.

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    06/21/2023

    What trends are persisting across alternative investments?

    Fundamentals differ significantly at the sector level. For example, office remains the weakest sector, as vacancy rates remain elevated, and firms struggle to fully exit remote working.

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    06/15/2023

    Was the June FOMC meeting a Fed pause or hawkish skip?

    Today’s announcement made it clear that the committee still needs more compelling evidence that inflation is under control and could very well tighten at least once more this summer.

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    06/14/2023

    Is the Fed getting inflation wrong?

    While labor market conditions may have had some effect on pushing up services prices, we think its impact is overstated. Over the last 4 months, more than half of the year-over-year gain in core services ex-shelter inflation has come from transportation services alone.

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    06/07/2023

    How can private infrastructure fit in my portfolio?

    Core infrastructure continues to represent a way to generate income without taking on more equity risk, while proactively hedging portfolios from the chance that inflation is harder to tame than many currently expect.

    Read more
    05/31/2023

    Will the debt ceiling aftermath push up interest rates?

    Although rates have risen across the curve in recent weeks due to debt ceiling uncertainty, more hawkish Fed expectations, and resilient economic data, the overall macro landscape is one of slowing growth and receding inflation.

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    05/26/2023

    How have higher rates impacted alternatives?

    In real estate, industrial asset valuations have barely flinched given low vacancy rates and rising rents, whereas the office space has seen (and is expected to see) further pain as we determine what the future of work will look like.

    Read more
    05/24/2023

    How will challenges in commercial real estate impact regional banks?

    Given the rapid tightening from the Federal Reserve, property values are likely to be marked down in the quarters ahead impacting loan values on bank balance sheets.

    Read more
    05/19/2023

    How sustainable is equity market performance?

    This combination of lower rates, higher equity valuations, and declining earnings – with a potential recession on the horizon – leaves us cautious on the equity market at current levels.

    Read more
    05/17/2023

    How could stress in the banking sector impact the real economy?

    A pause from the Fed is certainly welcome from a broader macro perspective, but the challenges facing local and regional banks in particular, are still prevalent.

    Read more
    05/12/2023

    Beware Medicare: Why is Medicare funding a big problem?

    For Americans planning for retirement, the obvious implication is to save and invest more. Beyond this, it has become increasingly necessary to have some assets outside of traditional 401(k)s and IRAs.

    Read more
    05/10/2023

    What happens if the U.S. breaches the debt ceiling?

    The U.S. reached its debt limit of USD 31.4 trillion on January 19th and has since been relying on funds in the Treasury General Account (TGA) and so-called “extraordinary measures” to fund its obligations.

    Read more
    05/04/2023

    How to position after a Fed pause?

    The statement language has shifted from “ongoing increases will be appropriate” to a data-dependent approach “in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate”, hinting the committee is ready to pause rate increases.

    Read more
    05/03/2023

    When will Chinese markets react to China’s economic reopening boost?

    After an initial rally of 60% from late October to late January, Chinese equities have corrected 15% and are now down marginally for the year.

    Read more
    04/28/2023

    Have the odds of a U.S. recession this year increased?

    The first estimate of 1Q23 real GDP showed the economy grew at a 1.1% annualized rate, below the consensus expectation for 1.9% growth.

    Read more
    04/26/2023

    What is going on with private credit?

    Moreover, many banks stepped away from riskier lending in the aftermath of 2008, creating an opportunity for private credit firms and other direct lenders to increase their market share.

    Read more
    04/21/2023

    Are inflation and employment signaling the Fed is not done?

    Those waiting for a pick-up in unemployment to signal a looming recession or that the Fed can finally declare victory may be too late.

    Read more
    04/21/2023

    Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

    Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.

    Read more
    04/19/2023

    Will the U.S. dollar go “digital”?

    These financial institutions would incorporate FedNow into their existing transfer infrastructure, so consumers, businesses and non-bank payment providers would use the system indirectly, rather than treat it as a third-party application.

    Read more
    04/18/2023

    The changing shape of Europe’s energy transition

    Accelerating efforts to achieve a green and secure energy supply are having an impact on the economy and markets.

    Read more
    04/12/2023

    Will the March CPI print force the Fed to hike in May?

    The key point, though, is that much of the “stickiness” that has been ascribed to core services may largely reflect the lingering hangover of supply chain issues, where Fed policy has little impact.

    Read more
    04/05/2023

    Is the window of opportunity closing for bond investors?

    As the Fed ponders its next step, investors should be mindful that the window of opportunity that has emerged in fixed income may slam shut quickly.

    Read more
    03/31/2023

    What mattered for equity markets in 1Q23?

    The bottom line is that performance in U.S. equity markets so far this year has been all about rates, a theme that should persist as earnings expectations gradually align with reality.

    Read more
    03/30/2023

    A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

    A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

    Read more
    03/29/2023

    What are the opportunities in municipal bonds?

    However, with a potential recession on the horizon and vulnerabilities in the financial system, investors ought to be selective, gearing towards the highest quality areas of the bond market.

    Read more
    03/23/2023

    The March FOMC decision: Is the Fed done tightening?

    In the statement, the Federal Reserve (Fed) acknowledged the potential implications of banking turmoil on the economic outlook but highlighted that at this point, it’s uncertain how big that impact will be.

    Read more
    03/22/2023

    Where will the U.S. dollar go from here?

    However, we seem to be at the beginning of a turnaround given the change in the international growth and interest rate backdrop, together with a potential shift in market leadership.

    Read more
    03/17/2023

    How do investors make sense of economic data, bank failures and central bank actions?

    Putting aside the obvious implications of the above – namely uncertainty and, in turn, volatility – it would be wise to also consider what this means for the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

    Read more
    03/15/2023

    How does the February CPI print influence the FOMC’s March rate decision?

    This highly anticipated print was overshadowed by the fallout from regional bank failures, which could also impact how the Federal Reserve (Fed) approaches its March rate decision.

    Read more
    03/10/2023

    What is the outlook for commercial real estate?

    With the U.S. housing market struggling under the weight of higher mortgage rates, higher home prices, and limited supply, more and more questions have been coming in around the outlook for commercial properties.

    Read more
    03/08/2023

    Are the stars aligning for Emerging Markets?

    While uncertainty remains about the cyclical path of U.S. policy and growth, the picture has gotten much clearer (and more positive) in China since late 2022.

    Read more
    03/03/2023

    Will higher rates return inflation to 2%?

    The recent surge in inflation has been driven by both demand and supply factors as fiscal stimulus and low rates supported a boost in demand, while lockdowns put significant pressure on supply chains.

    Read more
    03/01/2023

    Have government labor data become unreliable?

    In general, these concerns remind us that the government’s monthly jobs report should be seen as just one piece of the broader labor market mosaic.

    Read more
    02/24/2023

    Can bonds again provide both income and insurance?

    By the second half of the year, growth is likely to slow as the cumulative effects of higher rates are felt and inflation moderates as food and shelter consumer price index (CPI) soften.

    Read more
    02/22/2023

    Should Certificates of Deposit be a part of portfolio construction?

    Ultimately, the conversation around cash and traditional long-term assets should not be framed as “either/or”, but rather as “both, for different reasons.”

    Read more
    02/17/2023

    Is China unavoidable in 2023?

    Several pro-growth changes occurred late last year that investors should not ignore: support to the real estate sector, conclusion of the regulatory review of the internet sector, dialing down of geopolitical tensions – and crucially, a changing of the “Zero COVID policy".

    Read more
    02/15/2023

    Will disinflation be transitory?

    Markets had largely expected the uptick, but the underlying components showed a more mixed inflation picture compared to the broad-based declines seen in prior months.

    Read more
    02/10/2023

    How might financial conditions impact Federal Reserve rate hikes?

    Although financial conditions are tighter now than in early 2022, they have retreated significantly in recent months.

    Read more
    02/08/2023

    Is international equity outperformance sustainable this time?

    The next decade is likely to be characterized by more “normal” inflation. As a result, not all recent central bank rate hikes will be unwound - the era of free money is over.

    Read more
    02/02/2023

    How soon could the Federal Reserve finish hiking?

    The statement language and press conference were somewhat dovish.

    Read more
    02/01/2023

    Is there an opportunity in small caps?

    Importantly, however, significant valuation dispersion suggests that as investors gain more clarity about the health of the U.S. economy and trajectory of inflation and rates, small caps could lead the charge as we embark on the next bull run.

    Read more
    01/27/2023

    Are bonds a good investment?

    Compared to the past decade, bond yields across every major sector are above their ten-year median.

    Read more
    01/25/2023

    What does the rental market mean for inflation this year?

    To have a clear view on where inflation may be heading, it is therefore worth understanding how the rental market is faring.

    Read more
    01/20/2023

    Can alternative investments deliver in 2023?

    Looking ahead to 2023 we see slower growth, a gradual deceleration in inflation, and monetary policy that remains tight; as always, this will create risks, as well as opportunities, across the spectrum of alternative investments.

    Read more
    01/18/2023

    Will the U.S. run out of funding after reaching the debt ceiling?

    For investors, we anticipate a slowdown in economic growth and inflation should bring bond yields lower, but debt ceiling risks, although certainly not our base case, could derail the bond market recovery and foment significant volatility if realized.

    Read more
    01/13/2023

    What do you expect from 4Q earnings?

    Operating leverage, which is the relationship between changes in revenue and changes in earnings, continues to be key for profitability.

    Read more
    01/11/2023

    What to do with fixed income in 2023?

    Current data suggest three realities: inflation is cooling; job growth remains firm, but is likely to moderate, as will wage growth; and services and manufacturing data point to broader economic slowing.

    Read more
    01/06/2023

    What are the investment implications of China’s reopening?

    China’s resumption of normal manufacturing activity should continue to support supply chain normalization, maintaining global inflation on its cooling trend.

    Read more
    01/04/2023

    Will diversification make a comeback in 2023?

    For long-term investors, buying the dips – in both stocks and bonds—could become attractive in 2023, and diversification could stage a comeback.

    Read more
    12/28/2022

    How will investors remember 2022?

    2022 was a roller coaster for investors with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine challenging global energy supply, central banks pivoting aggressively to combat high inflation, fading, yet still widespread effects of a global pandemic impacting consumers, businesses, and supply chains, and elevated political uncertainty shifting the landscape of economies globally. In summary, 2022 was a volatile year.

    Read more
    12/21/2022

    What is the consumer spending on?

    The past few weeks have seen much ink spilled on 2023 outlooks, with strategists and analysts suggesting an increased likelihood of recession next year as the consumer begins to show signs of stress at a time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled there is more room for rates to rise.

    Read more
    12/16/2022

    Why isn’t the market agreeing with the Federal Reserve?

    As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate target range by 0.50% to 4.25%-4.50% at its December meeting.

    Read more
    12/14/2022

    Is inflation finally slowing?

    November’s CPI report showed a second month of softening inflation despite still-elevated price growth. Headline CPI increased 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) and 7.1% year-over-year (y/y), while core CPI (ex-food and energy) increased 0.2% m/m and 6.0% y/y, all below consensus expectations.

    Read more
    12/09/2022

    Is the labor market as strong as investors fear?

    Today’s investing landscape is dominated by a sentiment that may seem odd at first glance: namely, that good news is bad news. More specifically, good news for the economy is bad news for the stock market.

    Read more
    12/07/2022

    Have international equity markets already priced in the worst?

    International equities are down -13.6% year-to-date (in U.S. dollars), with multiple contraction and weaker currencies dragging on returns, as investors price in higher rates and more uncertainty about fundamentals.

    Read more
    12/02/2022

    Just how bad (or good) is economic growth?

    The prevailing economic resiliency coincides with softening inflation, which gives the Federal Reserve an opportune window of slowing inflation but solid growth to tighten monetary policy to an appropriately restrictive stance and maintain that level for a period of time before growth starts to bite.

    Read more
    11/30/2022

    Are banks capitalized for another recession?

    Numerous data suggests the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months; 46% of professional forecasters in the Philadelphia Fed Survey project a recession, the Conference Board recession probability model predicts a 96% likelihood of recession, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve is deeply inverted which has been a decent predictor of prior recessions.

    Read more
    11/23/2022

    Have global markets reached a turning point?

    For many investors, the “pivot” promise from October’s CPI print elicited a sigh of relief. Given that stock prices are higher, bond yields are lower and the dollar has softened in the weeks after the inflation reading, it would appear that markets have reached a turning point.

    Read more
    11/18/2022

    How do the midterm elections impact the outlook for markets and the economy?

    Markets often rally after elections, and the 2022 midterms were no exception with markets up 5.9% during election week. In the future, market prognosticators will point to this as another data point confirming the pattern of post-election rallies.

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    11/16/2022

    What is the outlook for long-term returns?

    The start of this month saw the release of our 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, where we forecast economic growth, inflation, and asset returns over a 10–15-year horizon. The current report stands in stark contrast to prior years, which were characterized by a relatively muted outlook for returns from both stocks and bonds.

    Read more
    11/11/2022

    What led inflation to slow in October?

    There's still a question of whether the Fed will allow its policies to work their way through the economy, as there is still a risk that they knock the economy into a recession to combat an inflation problem that, based on this report, is receding on its own.

    Read more
    11/09/2022

    How can Millennials ride out the current market storm?

    2022 has been a year of remarkable volatility across asset classes. Stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies have been rocked by a confluence of challenges that could be described as a “perfect storm.”

    Read more
    11/03/2022

    Is a slower rate hike path on the horizon?

    The committee’s tone remained hawkish and inflation-vigilant, but investors took initial relief at new statement language acknowledging the significant amount of tightening the Federal Reserve (Fed) has already delivered and the lags with which it will affect the economy and inflation.

    Read more
    11/02/2022

    How should I invest around the midterm elections?

    The 2022 midterm elections are just days away and many investors are wondering how these elections may impact their portfolios. Although many investors fear the impact of politics on their portfolios, history shows election-related market volatility is typically short-lived and it is policy, not politics, that influences the economy and markets over time.

    Read more
    10/28/2022

    Is this a bear market rally?

    Markets picked up steam recently, anticipating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could follow a 75 bps rate hike in November with a smaller 50 bps rate increase in December. Markets have been rallying since mid-October, up 7% since the mid-month low. But is this just another bear market rally?

    Read more
    10/26/2022

    What are the investment implications of China’s Party Congress?

    As usual, China has been going through its own economic, policy, and political cycle. While the rest of the global economy is slowing down and facing the possibility of recession ahead due to elevated inflation and rapid policy tightening, China’s economy began to slow down over a year ago and already went through a contraction in the second quarter.

    Read more
    10/21/2022

    When will earnings estimates begin to decline?

    2022 has been a volatile year, and this volatility has been almost entirely driven by fluctuations in valuations; until recently, earnings estimates had been climbing or stable.

    Read more
    10/19/2022

    What to do with fixed income?

    The hallmark of core bonds is their diversification benefits and lower volatility to risk assets, which make them an important ballast in portfolios. However, with bonds down double digits this year , investors are struggling with their fixed income allocations.

    Read more
    10/14/2022

    What should investors expect for 3Q22 earnings?

    The third quarter earnings season is set to kick-off with the large U.S. banks releasing results. Our current estimate for 3Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $53.82, representing year-over-year (y/y) growth of 3.5% and quarter-over-quarter (q/q) growth of 14.8%.

    Read more
    10/11/2022

    Does inflation impact younger and older investors differently?

    In the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, global economies are reeling in the face of decades-high inflation, brought about first by unprecedented levels of fiscal stimulus and more recently by supply-chain snarls, which in turn are largely attributable to China’s continued COVID-zero policy and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

    Read more
    10/07/2022

    After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?

    The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.

    Read more
    10/05/2022

    Are falling job openings a sign of cooling labor markets?

    For investors, while it may seem reasonable to assume a fall in job openings would precede an uptick in the unemployment rate, the still huge gap between labor demand and supply suggests that job openings can come down further without meaningfully pushing up the unemployment rate.

    Read more
    09/30/2022

    What just happened to Gilts and Sterling?

    In recent weeks, a series of fiscal and monetary developments led volatility to spike in the United Kingdom’s government bond and currency markets. By our lights, the combination of these events amplified uncertainty about the UK’s institutional architecture and the Bank of England’s commitment to sustainable monetary and fiscal policy.

    Read more
    09/28/2022

    When can the Fed stop hiking interest rates?

    During the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference, Chair Powell noted that the Committee would like to see positive real rates across the entire yield curve as one indication that they have reached an appropriate policy stance.

    Read more
    05/20/2022

    Are we in or headed towards a recession?

    The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

    Read more
    03/12/2021

    What kind of equities should I own if inflation is rising?

    The remainder of 2021 should see an acceleration in economic activity, rising inflation, and higher interest rates. In general, this dynamic should support the outperformance of value relative to growth, with attractive relative valuations acting as an additional tailwind for value outperformance.

    Read more
    03/09/2020

    What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

    It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

    Read more
    03/03/2020

    Monetary medicine of limited effectiveness

    Even with this Fed action, there will likely be calls for fiscal action to support to businesses suffering from the response to virus fears, says David Kelly.

    Read more

    Featured Portfolio Insights

    Global Asset Allocation Views 3Q 2023

    The economy faces slightly subtrend growth, with risks in both directions. We maintain a duration overweight, upgrade equity to neutral, remain neutral on credit and keep a slight overweight to cash. As stock-bond correlations follow inflation lower we favor selectively adding more risk-on positions.

    Learn more

    Global Equity Views 3Q 2023

    Our portfolio managers are modestly positive on markets. Despite high valuations, we think it is too early to take a stance against the AI winners. We prefer quality stocks across sectors, but the most obviously defensive stocks look overpriced.

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    Global Fixed Income Views 3Q 2023

    Recession is still our base case scenario, but we’ve lowered it to 55% while raising the likelihood of Sub Trend Growth to 40%. Our Crisis (5%) and Above Trend Growth (0%) scenarios are unchanged. Our top pick: agency mortgage-backed securities.

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    Factor Views 3Q 2023

    Factor performance remained broadly positive despite a quarter of twists and turns. Macro carry factors enjoyed their second best quarter since the global financial crisis. Equity factors, especially value, look well supported by current valuations.

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    Portfolio Analysis

    Make the most of the economic recovery

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