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    Insights to empower better decisions

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    Weekly Market Recap
    New U.S. 03 - 27 - 2023
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    Guide to the Markets

    The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

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    Discover J.P. Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, drawing on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide.

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            Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist

    Our thought leaders sit down for a conversational breakdown of big ideas, future trends, emerging topics and their investment implications complete with key takeaways to help inform building stronger investment plans and portfolios for the long-term.

    Episodes

    • The regional bank crisis and its implications for bonds
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    • Market Insights: Instant Reaction to February CPI Report
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    Trending Topics

    Healthcare expenses may be about $500 per month per person starting at age 65, and triple that by the end of one’s life. Check out our 2022 Guide to Retirement to learn more about the need to stay invested for the long term to help keep up with these rising costs.

    Market Commentary

    What are the opportunities in municipal bonds?

    However, with a potential recession on the horizon and vulnerabilities in the financial system, investors ought to be selective, gearing towards the highest quality areas of the bond market.

    Read more

    The March FOMC decision: Is the Fed done tightening?

    In the statement, the Federal Reserve (Fed) acknowledged the potential implications of banking turmoil on the economic outlook but highlighted that at this point, it’s uncertain how big that impact will be.

    Read more

    Where will the U.S. dollar go from here?

    However, we seem to be at the beginning of a turnaround given the change in the international growth and interest rate backdrop, together with a potential shift in market leadership.

    Read more

    How do investors make sense of economic data, bank failures and central bank actions?

    Putting aside the obvious implications of the above – namely uncertainty and, in turn, volatility – it would be wise to also consider what this means for the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

    Read more

    How does the February CPI print influence the FOMC’s March rate decision?

    This highly anticipated print was overshadowed by the fallout from regional bank failures, which could also impact how the Federal Reserve (Fed) approaches its March rate decision.

    Read more

    What is the outlook for commercial real estate?

    With the U.S. housing market struggling under the weight of higher mortgage rates, higher home prices, and limited supply, more and more questions have been coming in around the outlook for commercial properties.

    Read more

    Are the stars aligning for Emerging Markets?

    While uncertainty remains about the cyclical path of U.S. policy and growth, the picture has gotten much clearer (and more positive) in China since late 2022.

    Read more

    Will higher rates return inflation to 2%?

    The recent surge in inflation has been driven by both demand and supply factors as fiscal stimulus and low rates supported a boost in demand, while lockdowns put significant pressure on supply chains.

    Read more

    Have government labor data become unreliable?

    In general, these concerns remind us that the government’s monthly jobs report should be seen as just one piece of the broader labor market mosaic.

    Read more

    Can bonds again provide both income and insurance?

    By the second half of the year, growth is likely to slow as the cumulative effects of higher rates are felt and inflation moderates as food and shelter consumer price index (CPI) soften.

    Read more

    Should Certificates of Deposit be a part of portfolio construction?

    Ultimately, the conversation around cash and traditional long-term assets should not be framed as “either/or”, but rather as “both, for different reasons.”

    Read more

    Is China unavoidable in 2023?

    Several pro-growth changes occurred late last year that investors should not ignore: support to the real estate sector, conclusion of the regulatory review of the internet sector, dialing down of geopolitical tensions – and crucially, a changing of the “Zero COVID policy".

    Read more

    Will disinflation be transitory?

    Markets had largely expected the uptick, but the underlying components showed a more mixed inflation picture compared to the broad-based declines seen in prior months.

    Read more

    How might financial conditions impact Federal Reserve rate hikes?

    Although financial conditions are tighter now than in early 2022, they have retreated significantly in recent months.

    Read more

    Is international equity outperformance sustainable this time?

    The next decade is likely to be characterized by more “normal” inflation. As a result, not all recent central bank rate hikes will be unwound - the era of free money is over.

    Read more

    How soon could the Federal Reserve finish hiking?

    The statement language and press conference were somewhat dovish.

    Read more

    Is there an opportunity in small caps?

    Importantly, however, significant valuation dispersion suggests that as investors gain more clarity about the health of the U.S. economy and trajectory of inflation and rates, small caps could lead the charge as we embark on the next bull run.

    Read more

    4Q22 Earnings: The calm before the storm?

    2022 was a year to forget in the capital markets. Stock/bond correlations turned positive and left traditional investors with nowhere to hide as volatility spiked and prices plunged.

    Read more

    Are bonds a good investment?

    Compared to the past decade, bond yields across every major sector are above their ten-year median.

    Read more

    What does the rental market mean for inflation this year?

    To have a clear view on where inflation may be heading, it is therefore worth understanding how the rental market is faring.

    Read more

    Can alternative investments deliver in 2023?

    Looking ahead to 2023 we see slower growth, a gradual deceleration in inflation, and monetary policy that remains tight; as always, this will create risks, as well as opportunities, across the spectrum of alternative investments.

    Read more

    Will the U.S. run out of funding after reaching the debt ceiling?

    For investors, we anticipate a slowdown in economic growth and inflation should bring bond yields lower, but debt ceiling risks, although certainly not our base case, could derail the bond market recovery and foment significant volatility if realized.

    Read more

    What do you expect from 4Q earnings?

    Operating leverage, which is the relationship between changes in revenue and changes in earnings, continues to be key for profitability.

    Read more

    What to do with fixed income in 2023?

    Current data suggest three realities: inflation is cooling; job growth remains firm, but is likely to moderate, as will wage growth; and services and manufacturing data point to broader economic slowing.

    Read more

    What are the investment implications of China’s reopening?

    China’s resumption of normal manufacturing activity should continue to support supply chain normalization, maintaining global inflation on its cooling trend.

    Read more

    Will diversification make a comeback in 2023?

    For long-term investors, buying the dips – in both stocks and bonds—could become attractive in 2023, and diversification could stage a comeback.

    Read more

    How will investors remember 2022?

    2022 was a roller coaster for investors with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine challenging global energy supply, central banks pivoting aggressively to combat high inflation, fading, yet still widespread effects of a global pandemic impacting consumers, businesses, and supply chains, and elevated political uncertainty shifting the landscape of economies globally. In summary, 2022 was a volatile year.

    Read more

    What is the consumer spending on?

    The past few weeks have seen much ink spilled on 2023 outlooks, with strategists and analysts suggesting an increased likelihood of recession next year as the consumer begins to show signs of stress at a time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled there is more room for rates to rise.

    Read more

    Why isn’t the market agreeing with the Federal Reserve?

    As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate target range by 0.50% to 4.25%-4.50% at its December meeting.

    Read more

    Is inflation finally slowing?

    November’s CPI report showed a second month of softening inflation despite still-elevated price growth. Headline CPI increased 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) and 7.1% year-over-year (y/y), while core CPI (ex-food and energy) increased 0.2% m/m and 6.0% y/y, all below consensus expectations.

    Read more

    Is the labor market as strong as investors fear?

    Today’s investing landscape is dominated by a sentiment that may seem odd at first glance: namely, that good news is bad news. More specifically, good news for the economy is bad news for the stock market.

    Read more

    Have international equity markets already priced in the worst?

    International equities are down -13.6% year-to-date (in U.S. dollars), with multiple contraction and weaker currencies dragging on returns, as investors price in higher rates and more uncertainty about fundamentals.

    Read more

    Just how bad (or good) is economic growth?

    The prevailing economic resiliency coincides with softening inflation, which gives the Federal Reserve an opportune window of slowing inflation but solid growth to tighten monetary policy to an appropriately restrictive stance and maintain that level for a period of time before growth starts to bite.

    Read more

    Are banks capitalized for another recession?

    Numerous data suggests the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months; 46% of professional forecasters in the Philadelphia Fed Survey project a recession, the Conference Board recession probability model predicts a 96% likelihood of recession, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve is deeply inverted which has been a decent predictor of prior recessions.

    Read more

    Have global markets reached a turning point?

    For many investors, the “pivot” promise from October’s CPI print elicited a sigh of relief. Given that stock prices are higher, bond yields are lower and the dollar has softened in the weeks after the inflation reading, it would appear that markets have reached a turning point.

    Read more

    How do the midterm elections impact the outlook for markets and the economy?

    Markets often rally after elections, and the 2022 midterms were no exception with markets up 5.9% during election week. In the future, market prognosticators will point to this as another data point confirming the pattern of post-election rallies.

    Read more

    What is the outlook for long-term returns?

    The start of this month saw the release of our 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, where we forecast economic growth, inflation, and asset returns over a 10–15-year horizon. The current report stands in stark contrast to prior years, which were characterized by a relatively muted outlook for returns from both stocks and bonds.

    Read more

    What led inflation to slow in October?

    There's still a question of whether the Fed will allow its policies to work their way through the economy, as there is still a risk that they knock the economy into a recession to combat an inflation problem that, based on this report, is receding on its own.

    Read more

    How can Millennials ride out the current market storm?

    2022 has been a year of remarkable volatility across asset classes. Stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies have been rocked by a confluence of challenges that could be described as a “perfect storm.”

    Read more

    3Q22 Earnings: Higher costs

    The third quarter saw yet another decline in the S&P 500, as concerns that higher rates and tighter monetary policy would weigh on economic activity and earnings remained top of mind for investors. While the rally in October has been refreshing, it seems unlikely it is the beginning of a new bull market; investors are looking for signs of a pivot at the Federal Reserve (Fed), whereas best case they will get a pause.

    Read more

    Is a slower rate hike path on the horizon?

    The committee’s tone remained hawkish and inflation-vigilant, but investors took initial relief at new statement language acknowledging the significant amount of tightening the Federal Reserve (Fed) has already delivered and the lags with which it will affect the economy and inflation.

    Read more

    How should I invest around the midterm elections?

    The 2022 midterm elections are just days away and many investors are wondering how these elections may impact their portfolios. Although many investors fear the impact of politics on their portfolios, history shows election-related market volatility is typically short-lived and it is policy, not politics, that influences the economy and markets over time.

    Read more

    Is this a bear market rally?

    Markets picked up steam recently, anticipating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could follow a 75 bps rate hike in November with a smaller 50 bps rate increase in December. Markets have been rallying since mid-October, up 7% since the mid-month low. But is this just another bear market rally?

    Read more

    What are the investment implications of China’s Party Congress?

    As usual, China has been going through its own economic, policy, and political cycle. While the rest of the global economy is slowing down and facing the possibility of recession ahead due to elevated inflation and rapid policy tightening, China’s economy began to slow down over a year ago and already went through a contraction in the second quarter.

    Read more

    When will earnings estimates begin to decline?

    2022 has been a volatile year, and this volatility has been almost entirely driven by fluctuations in valuations; until recently, earnings estimates had been climbing or stable.

    Read more

    What to do with fixed income?

    The hallmark of core bonds is their diversification benefits and lower volatility to risk assets, which make them an important ballast in portfolios. However, with bonds down double digits this year , investors are struggling with their fixed income allocations.

    Read more

    What should investors expect for 3Q22 earnings?

    The third quarter earnings season is set to kick-off with the large U.S. banks releasing results. Our current estimate for 3Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $53.82, representing year-over-year (y/y) growth of 3.5% and quarter-over-quarter (q/q) growth of 14.8%.

    Read more

    Does inflation impact younger and older investors differently?

    In the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, global economies are reeling in the face of decades-high inflation, brought about first by unprecedented levels of fiscal stimulus and more recently by supply-chain snarls, which in turn are largely attributable to China’s continued COVID-zero policy and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

    Read more

    After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?

    The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.

    Read more

    Are falling job openings a sign of cooling labor markets?

    For investors, while it may seem reasonable to assume a fall in job openings would precede an uptick in the unemployment rate, the still huge gap between labor demand and supply suggests that job openings can come down further without meaningfully pushing up the unemployment rate.

    Read more

    What just happened to Gilts and Sterling?

    In recent weeks, a series of fiscal and monetary developments led volatility to spike in the United Kingdom’s government bond and currency markets. By our lights, the combination of these events amplified uncertainty about the UK’s institutional architecture and the Bank of England’s commitment to sustainable monetary and fiscal policy.

    Read more

    When can the Fed stop hiking interest rates?

    During the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference, Chair Powell noted that the Committee would like to see positive real rates across the entire yield curve as one indication that they have reached an appropriate policy stance.

    Read more

    Are markets more in line with Fed rate expectations?

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to raise the Federal funds rate target range by 0.75% to 3.00%-3.25%. The tone of the committee remains hawkish given policymakers are “highly attentive” to taming inflation that runs well above its 2% target.

    Read more

    How does a softening housing market complicate the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening plan?

    The housing market has had a difficult year. Mortgage rates have skyrocketed from 3.1% to over 6.0% and home prices are up 18% year-over-year. As a result, housing affordability has been crushed leading to a sizeable decline in single-family housing construction and mortgage origination activity.

    Read more

    What is the risk of a market correction?

    We still believe headline inflation has peaked on a year-over-year basis, but more clarity on the trajectory of inflation will be key in order for interest rate volatility – and therefore capital market volatility broadly – to decline. The Fed looks set to continue raising interest rates in a fairly aggressive way through the end of 2022, and potentially into 2023 if inflation proves stickier than expected.

    Read more

    When will the U.S. dollar peak?

    At first glance, a “strong U.S. dollar” may seem like a positive. There are advantages: overseas trips are cheaper for U.S. tourists and foreign goods are cheaper to import for U.S. companies and consumers (helping bring down elevated inflation). However, important disadvantages exist: U.S. exports are more expensive for foreigners and foreign earnings of U.S. companies are dragged lower.

    Read more

    Policy and Politics: The Fiscal and Midterm Election Outlook

    The fast-approaching midterm elections and the recent spate of legislation has brought policy and politics back to the fore. This has investors considering several key questions.

    Read more

    What should I know about President Biden’s Student Loan Relief Plan?

    President Biden’s announcement on a set of changes to student loan repayment has generated several questions from clients. The most common boil down to: How will student debt relief impact consumers? Will the deficit impact lead to a further rise in inflationary pressures? And, is it likely to be passed?

    Read more

    How healthy is the consumer?

    Coming into 2022, investors expected that a healthy consumer – supported by significant fiscal stimulus during the pandemic – would power the economy at an above-trend pace. While this was indeed the case at the start of the year, a series of idiosyncratic factors pushed aggregate growth into negative territory.

    Read more

    Is it a bad idea to invest in EM equities during a Fed rate hike cycle?

    In the short-term, rate hikes may pressure EM equities, but not as much as investors may think due to: lower vulnerability to capital outflows, high interest rate differentials limiting outflows, and a greater dependence on China’s cycle versus the Fed.

    Read more

    What will a buyback tax mean for dividends?

    The tax on buybacks will be particularly relevant for equity investors given the role share repurchases played in enhancing profit growth during the post-GFC cycle. The big question is whether or not this buyback tax will lead companies to reduce share repurchases and increase dividend payments going forward.

    Read more

    How will the Inflation Reduction Act impact the economy?

    This week, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a legislative package that includes climate spending, prescription drug pricing reform, and tax reform, was signed into law. The IRA represents a meaningful commitment to climate goals and should reduce the deficit over the next decade but is unlikely to reduce inflation and will weigh on 2023 profits.

    Read more

    2Q22 Earnings: Where have all the earnings gone?

    Earnings will remain the primary driver of returns. With 90% of S&P 500 market capitalization reporting, we are currently tracking earnings per share (EPS) of $47.25 for the second quarter.

    Read more

    Will global central banks’ fight against inflation lead to a global recession?

    The broad takeaway is that economic conditions are softening globally, and aggressive central bank tightening is contributing to it. The global economy could avoid a recession if a stronger recovery emanates from China in the second half of 2022, and a soft landing is achieved in regions like the U.S. and Europe, however, that outcome looks increasingly challenging.

    Read more

    How should I think about investing in alternatives?

    There are three roles that alternative investments can play in a diversified portfolio – they can provide income, diversification, or enhance returns. Importantly, these are not mutually exclusive; some alternatives – like core real assets – can provide a combination of both income and diversification.

    Read more

    Has the Fed shifted more or less hawkish?

    For investors, further tightening is ahead; however, a data-dependent committee suggests an increase in the federal funds rate to above 3.5% in this cycle is now less likely.

    Read more

    Is the 60/40 dead?

    Since emerging from the Financial Crisis, a 60/40 portfolio of U.S. stocks and bonds has earned a whopping 11.5% average annual return. However, 2022 has been a particularly challenging year for the 60/40, which declined 16.1% in the first half of the year.

    Read more

    Is there a role for private real estate in my portfolio?

    What has not come into question is whether investors will need alternative sources of income and diversification. As such, it seems increasingly likely that private real estate will be part of the broader investment conversation in the years to come.

    Read more

    Are we already in a recession?

    Looking ahead, we recognize that recession risk has risen. That said, it seems premature to make a call that we are already in recession today.

    Read more

    Does investing in European equities still make sense?

    The tragic war in Ukraine has led to an indiscriminate sell-off in European equities. While headlines weigh on sentiment, the 1Q earnings season was strong for Europe.

    Read more

    Will the Fed tip the economy into recession?

    For investors, the Fed has laid out a hawkish path for rate increases with the intent to front load rate hikes. With such aggressive tightening this year, recession risks have risen further in 2023.

    Read more

    What should I know about quantitative tightening?

    Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.

    Read more

    Are you worried about an earnings recession?

    While rising interest rates and a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) help to explain what has gone on with valuations, it was not as clear why earnings estimates continued to move higher. Interestingly, however, companies have begun guiding earnings expectations lower in recent weeks, as it appears too difficult to continue ignoring rising costs and economic growth that is decelerating back toward trend.

    Read more

    Should I time the bottom in today’s market?

    Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.

    Read more

    Are bonds attractive?

    The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.

    Read more

    Are we in or headed towards a recession?

    The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

    Read more

    How do investors navigate market volatility?

    The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.

    Read more

    1Q22 Earnings: Don’t stop believin’

    A re-rating of valuations has led to negative equity returns year-to-date, but importantly, earnings estimates have continued to trend higher. In an environment of rising rates, earnings will be the key driver of returns.

    Read more

    When will China’s economy and markets find their footing?

    The Year of the Tiger was expected to be a year of stabilization for China’s economy and of recovery for its equity market, following last year’s tough Year of the Ox. However, instead of positive surprises, investors have continued to grapple with uncertainties, both new and old.

    Read more

    Tax planning? Or a plan for taxes?

    At the end of the day, active tax management is a way to take advantage of volatility. Volatility is a hallmark of the capital markets, but it also tends to derail investors and undermine their ability to reach their long-term retirement goals.

    Read more

    How aggressive will the Federal Reserve (Fed) tighten monetary policy?

    At its May meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by 0.50% to 0.75%-1.00% and signaled similar 50 basis point rate increases would be on the table for the next couple of meetings.

    Read more

    Does China’s “COVID zero” approach threaten global supply chains?

    Since the onset of the pandemic, global supply chains have been stressed, weighing on economic growth and lifting consumer core goods inflation. Supply chain issues had seemed to peak in December, with some encouraging improvement in the first two months of 2022.

    Read more

    How do geopolitics highlight the need for more sustainable innovation?

    Although climate change is a key consideration in sustainable investing, sustainable investing is more broadly about finding companies that are durable in the long run and identifying risks that traditional company analysis may not capture.

    Read more

    What’s going on with the housing market?

    U.S. home prices have experienced incredible appreciation over the last decade, with particular strength in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.

    Read more

    What should investors expect for 1Q22 earnings?

    With financials kicking off the first quarter earnings season this week, our current estimate for 1Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $51.01 ($42.80 ex-financials), representing year-over-year growth of 7.6%.

    Read more

    Why is there so much demand for labor?

    The March employment report showed that the U.S. economy continues to recover in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, with the labor force exhibiting signs of multi-generational tightness.

    Read more

    Has the sell-off created an opportunity in growth stocks?

    2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic – as well as over the prior cycle – under pressure.

    Read more

    Should investors hedge the currency when investing in international equities?

    Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.

    Read more

    Just how hot is the labor market?

    One of the most critical levers to reduce carbon emissions globally is transportation. Transportation accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with nearly three-quarters coming from passenger travel and road freight.

    Read more

    Inflation: A Somewhat Sticky Situation

    As we emerge from this pandemic with inflation now rising at its fastest pace since the 1980s, the biggest question for investors is whether some of this inflation will prove “sticky”.

    Read more

    What kind of equities should I own if inflation is rising?

    The remainder of 2021 should see an acceleration in economic activity, rising inflation, and higher interest rates. In general, this dynamic should support the outperformance of value relative to growth, with attractive relative valuations acting as an additional tailwind for value outperformance.

    Read more

    What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

    It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

    Read more

    Monetary medicine of limited effectiveness

    Even with this Fed action, there will likely be calls for fiscal action to support to businesses suffering from the response to virus fears, says David Kelly.

    Read more

    On the Minds of Investors

    03/29/2023

    What are the opportunities in municipal bonds?

    However, with a potential recession on the horizon and vulnerabilities in the financial system, investors ought to be selective, gearing towards the highest quality areas of the bond market.

    Read more
    03/23/2023

    The March FOMC decision: Is the Fed done tightening?

    In the statement, the Federal Reserve (Fed) acknowledged the potential implications of banking turmoil on the economic outlook but highlighted that at this point, it’s uncertain how big that impact will be.

    Read more
    03/22/2023

    Where will the U.S. dollar go from here?

    However, we seem to be at the beginning of a turnaround given the change in the international growth and interest rate backdrop, together with a potential shift in market leadership.

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    03/17/2023

    How do investors make sense of economic data, bank failures and central bank actions?

    Putting aside the obvious implications of the above – namely uncertainty and, in turn, volatility – it would be wise to also consider what this means for the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

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    03/15/2023

    How does the February CPI print influence the FOMC’s March rate decision?

    This highly anticipated print was overshadowed by the fallout from regional bank failures, which could also impact how the Federal Reserve (Fed) approaches its March rate decision.

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    03/10/2023

    What is the outlook for commercial real estate?

    With the U.S. housing market struggling under the weight of higher mortgage rates, higher home prices, and limited supply, more and more questions have been coming in around the outlook for commercial properties.

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    03/08/2023

    Are the stars aligning for Emerging Markets?

    While uncertainty remains about the cyclical path of U.S. policy and growth, the picture has gotten much clearer (and more positive) in China since late 2022.

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    03/03/2023

    Will higher rates return inflation to 2%?

    The recent surge in inflation has been driven by both demand and supply factors as fiscal stimulus and low rates supported a boost in demand, while lockdowns put significant pressure on supply chains.

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    03/01/2023

    Have government labor data become unreliable?

    In general, these concerns remind us that the government’s monthly jobs report should be seen as just one piece of the broader labor market mosaic.

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    02/24/2023

    Can bonds again provide both income and insurance?

    By the second half of the year, growth is likely to slow as the cumulative effects of higher rates are felt and inflation moderates as food and shelter consumer price index (CPI) soften.

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    02/22/2023

    Should Certificates of Deposit be a part of portfolio construction?

    Ultimately, the conversation around cash and traditional long-term assets should not be framed as “either/or”, but rather as “both, for different reasons.”

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    02/17/2023

    Is China unavoidable in 2023?

    Several pro-growth changes occurred late last year that investors should not ignore: support to the real estate sector, conclusion of the regulatory review of the internet sector, dialing down of geopolitical tensions – and crucially, a changing of the “Zero COVID policy".

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    02/15/2023

    Will disinflation be transitory?

    Markets had largely expected the uptick, but the underlying components showed a more mixed inflation picture compared to the broad-based declines seen in prior months.

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    02/10/2023

    How might financial conditions impact Federal Reserve rate hikes?

    Although financial conditions are tighter now than in early 2022, they have retreated significantly in recent months.

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    02/08/2023

    Is international equity outperformance sustainable this time?

    The next decade is likely to be characterized by more “normal” inflation. As a result, not all recent central bank rate hikes will be unwound - the era of free money is over.

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    02/02/2023

    How soon could the Federal Reserve finish hiking?

    The statement language and press conference were somewhat dovish.

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    02/01/2023

    Is there an opportunity in small caps?

    Importantly, however, significant valuation dispersion suggests that as investors gain more clarity about the health of the U.S. economy and trajectory of inflation and rates, small caps could lead the charge as we embark on the next bull run.

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    01/27/2023

    Are bonds a good investment?

    Compared to the past decade, bond yields across every major sector are above their ten-year median.

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    01/25/2023

    What does the rental market mean for inflation this year?

    To have a clear view on where inflation may be heading, it is therefore worth understanding how the rental market is faring.

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    01/20/2023

    Can alternative investments deliver in 2023?

    Looking ahead to 2023 we see slower growth, a gradual deceleration in inflation, and monetary policy that remains tight; as always, this will create risks, as well as opportunities, across the spectrum of alternative investments.

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    01/18/2023

    Will the U.S. run out of funding after reaching the debt ceiling?

    For investors, we anticipate a slowdown in economic growth and inflation should bring bond yields lower, but debt ceiling risks, although certainly not our base case, could derail the bond market recovery and foment significant volatility if realized.

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    01/13/2023

    What do you expect from 4Q earnings?

    Operating leverage, which is the relationship between changes in revenue and changes in earnings, continues to be key for profitability.

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    01/11/2023

    What to do with fixed income in 2023?

    Current data suggest three realities: inflation is cooling; job growth remains firm, but is likely to moderate, as will wage growth; and services and manufacturing data point to broader economic slowing.

    Read more
    01/06/2023

    What are the investment implications of China’s reopening?

    China’s resumption of normal manufacturing activity should continue to support supply chain normalization, maintaining global inflation on its cooling trend.

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    01/04/2023

    Will diversification make a comeback in 2023?

    For long-term investors, buying the dips – in both stocks and bonds—could become attractive in 2023, and diversification could stage a comeback.

    Read more
    12/28/2022

    How will investors remember 2022?

    2022 was a roller coaster for investors with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine challenging global energy supply, central banks pivoting aggressively to combat high inflation, fading, yet still widespread effects of a global pandemic impacting consumers, businesses, and supply chains, and elevated political uncertainty shifting the landscape of economies globally. In summary, 2022 was a volatile year.

    Read more
    12/21/2022

    What is the consumer spending on?

    The past few weeks have seen much ink spilled on 2023 outlooks, with strategists and analysts suggesting an increased likelihood of recession next year as the consumer begins to show signs of stress at a time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled there is more room for rates to rise.

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    12/16/2022

    Why isn’t the market agreeing with the Federal Reserve?

    As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate target range by 0.50% to 4.25%-4.50% at its December meeting.

    Read more
    12/14/2022

    Is inflation finally slowing?

    November’s CPI report showed a second month of softening inflation despite still-elevated price growth. Headline CPI increased 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) and 7.1% year-over-year (y/y), while core CPI (ex-food and energy) increased 0.2% m/m and 6.0% y/y, all below consensus expectations.

    Read more
    12/09/2022

    Is the labor market as strong as investors fear?

    Today’s investing landscape is dominated by a sentiment that may seem odd at first glance: namely, that good news is bad news. More specifically, good news for the economy is bad news for the stock market.

    Read more
    12/07/2022

    Have international equity markets already priced in the worst?

    International equities are down -13.6% year-to-date (in U.S. dollars), with multiple contraction and weaker currencies dragging on returns, as investors price in higher rates and more uncertainty about fundamentals.

    Read more
    12/02/2022

    Just how bad (or good) is economic growth?

    The prevailing economic resiliency coincides with softening inflation, which gives the Federal Reserve an opportune window of slowing inflation but solid growth to tighten monetary policy to an appropriately restrictive stance and maintain that level for a period of time before growth starts to bite.

    Read more
    11/30/2022

    Are banks capitalized for another recession?

    Numerous data suggests the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months; 46% of professional forecasters in the Philadelphia Fed Survey project a recession, the Conference Board recession probability model predicts a 96% likelihood of recession, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve is deeply inverted which has been a decent predictor of prior recessions.

    Read more
    11/23/2022

    Have global markets reached a turning point?

    For many investors, the “pivot” promise from October’s CPI print elicited a sigh of relief. Given that stock prices are higher, bond yields are lower and the dollar has softened in the weeks after the inflation reading, it would appear that markets have reached a turning point.

    Read more
    11/18/2022

    How do the midterm elections impact the outlook for markets and the economy?

    Markets often rally after elections, and the 2022 midterms were no exception with markets up 5.9% during election week. In the future, market prognosticators will point to this as another data point confirming the pattern of post-election rallies.

    Read more
    11/16/2022

    What is the outlook for long-term returns?

    The start of this month saw the release of our 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, where we forecast economic growth, inflation, and asset returns over a 10–15-year horizon. The current report stands in stark contrast to prior years, which were characterized by a relatively muted outlook for returns from both stocks and bonds.

    Read more
    11/11/2022

    What led inflation to slow in October?

    There's still a question of whether the Fed will allow its policies to work their way through the economy, as there is still a risk that they knock the economy into a recession to combat an inflation problem that, based on this report, is receding on its own.

    Read more
    11/09/2022

    How can Millennials ride out the current market storm?

    2022 has been a year of remarkable volatility across asset classes. Stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies have been rocked by a confluence of challenges that could be described as a “perfect storm.”

    Read more
    11/03/2022

    Is a slower rate hike path on the horizon?

    The committee’s tone remained hawkish and inflation-vigilant, but investors took initial relief at new statement language acknowledging the significant amount of tightening the Federal Reserve (Fed) has already delivered and the lags with which it will affect the economy and inflation.

    Read more
    11/02/2022

    How should I invest around the midterm elections?

    The 2022 midterm elections are just days away and many investors are wondering how these elections may impact their portfolios. Although many investors fear the impact of politics on their portfolios, history shows election-related market volatility is typically short-lived and it is policy, not politics, that influences the economy and markets over time.

    Read more
    10/28/2022

    Is this a bear market rally?

    Markets picked up steam recently, anticipating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could follow a 75 bps rate hike in November with a smaller 50 bps rate increase in December. Markets have been rallying since mid-October, up 7% since the mid-month low. But is this just another bear market rally?

    Read more
    10/26/2022

    What are the investment implications of China’s Party Congress?

    As usual, China has been going through its own economic, policy, and political cycle. While the rest of the global economy is slowing down and facing the possibility of recession ahead due to elevated inflation and rapid policy tightening, China’s economy began to slow down over a year ago and already went through a contraction in the second quarter.

    Read more
    10/21/2022

    When will earnings estimates begin to decline?

    2022 has been a volatile year, and this volatility has been almost entirely driven by fluctuations in valuations; until recently, earnings estimates had been climbing or stable.

    Read more
    10/19/2022

    What to do with fixed income?

    The hallmark of core bonds is their diversification benefits and lower volatility to risk assets, which make them an important ballast in portfolios. However, with bonds down double digits this year , investors are struggling with their fixed income allocations.

    Read more
    10/14/2022

    What should investors expect for 3Q22 earnings?

    The third quarter earnings season is set to kick-off with the large U.S. banks releasing results. Our current estimate for 3Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $53.82, representing year-over-year (y/y) growth of 3.5% and quarter-over-quarter (q/q) growth of 14.8%.

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    10/11/2022

    Does inflation impact younger and older investors differently?

    In the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, global economies are reeling in the face of decades-high inflation, brought about first by unprecedented levels of fiscal stimulus and more recently by supply-chain snarls, which in turn are largely attributable to China’s continued COVID-zero policy and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

    Read more
    10/07/2022

    After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?

    The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.

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    10/05/2022

    Are falling job openings a sign of cooling labor markets?

    For investors, while it may seem reasonable to assume a fall in job openings would precede an uptick in the unemployment rate, the still huge gap between labor demand and supply suggests that job openings can come down further without meaningfully pushing up the unemployment rate.

    Read more
    09/30/2022

    What just happened to Gilts and Sterling?

    In recent weeks, a series of fiscal and monetary developments led volatility to spike in the United Kingdom’s government bond and currency markets. By our lights, the combination of these events amplified uncertainty about the UK’s institutional architecture and the Bank of England’s commitment to sustainable monetary and fiscal policy.

    Read more
    09/28/2022

    When can the Fed stop hiking interest rates?

    During the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference, Chair Powell noted that the Committee would like to see positive real rates across the entire yield curve as one indication that they have reached an appropriate policy stance.

    Read more
    09/22/2022

    Are markets more in line with Fed rate expectations?

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to raise the Federal funds rate target range by 0.75% to 3.00%-3.25%. The tone of the committee remains hawkish given policymakers are “highly attentive” to taming inflation that runs well above its 2% target.

    Read more
    09/21/2022

    How does a softening housing market complicate the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening plan?

    The housing market has had a difficult year. Mortgage rates have skyrocketed from 3.1% to over 6.0% and home prices are up 18% year-over-year. As a result, housing affordability has been crushed leading to a sizeable decline in single-family housing construction and mortgage origination activity.

    Read more
    09/16/2022

    What is the risk of a market correction?

    We still believe headline inflation has peaked on a year-over-year basis, but more clarity on the trajectory of inflation will be key in order for interest rate volatility – and therefore capital market volatility broadly – to decline. The Fed looks set to continue raising interest rates in a fairly aggressive way through the end of 2022, and potentially into 2023 if inflation proves stickier than expected.

    Read more
    09/14/2022

    When will the U.S. dollar peak?

    At first glance, a “strong U.S. dollar” may seem like a positive. There are advantages: overseas trips are cheaper for U.S. tourists and foreign goods are cheaper to import for U.S. companies and consumers (helping bring down elevated inflation). However, important disadvantages exist: U.S. exports are more expensive for foreigners and foreign earnings of U.S. companies are dragged lower.

    Read more
    09/09/2022

    What should I know about President Biden’s Student Loan Relief Plan?

    President Biden’s announcement on a set of changes to student loan repayment has generated several questions from clients. The most common boil down to: How will student debt relief impact consumers? Will the deficit impact lead to a further rise in inflationary pressures? And, is it likely to be passed?

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    09/08/2022

    How healthy is the consumer?

    Coming into 2022, investors expected that a healthy consumer – supported by significant fiscal stimulus during the pandemic – would power the economy at an above-trend pace. While this was indeed the case at the start of the year, a series of idiosyncratic factors pushed aggregate growth into negative territory.

    Read more
    08/31/2022

    Is it a bad idea to invest in EM equities during a Fed rate hike cycle?

    In the short-term, rate hikes may pressure EM equities, but not as much as investors may think due to: lower vulnerability to capital outflows, high interest rate differentials limiting outflows, and a greater dependence on China’s cycle versus the Fed.

    Read more
    08/24/2022

    What will a buyback tax mean for dividends?

    The tax on buybacks will be particularly relevant for equity investors given the role share repurchases played in enhancing profit growth during the post-GFC cycle. The big question is whether or not this buyback tax will lead companies to reduce share repurchases and increase dividend payments going forward.

    Read more
    08/17/2022

    How will the Inflation Reduction Act impact the economy?

    This week, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a legislative package that includes climate spending, prescription drug pricing reform, and tax reform, was signed into law. The IRA represents a meaningful commitment to climate goals and should reduce the deficit over the next decade but is unlikely to reduce inflation and will weigh on 2023 profits.

    Read more
    08/10/2022

    Will global central banks’ fight against inflation lead to a global recession?

    The broad takeaway is that economic conditions are softening globally, and aggressive central bank tightening is contributing to it. The global economy could avoid a recession if a stronger recovery emanates from China in the second half of 2022, and a soft landing is achieved in regions like the U.S. and Europe, however, that outcome looks increasingly challenging.

    Read more
    08/03/2022

    How should I think about investing in alternatives?

    There are three roles that alternative investments can play in a diversified portfolio – they can provide income, diversification, or enhance returns. Importantly, these are not mutually exclusive; some alternatives – like core real assets – can provide a combination of both income and diversification.

    Read more
    07/28/2022

    Has the Fed shifted more or less hawkish?

    For investors, further tightening is ahead; however, a data-dependent committee suggests an increase in the federal funds rate to above 3.5% in this cycle is now less likely.

    Read more
    07/20/2022

    Is the 60/40 dead?

    Since emerging from the Financial Crisis, a 60/40 portfolio of U.S. stocks and bonds has earned a whopping 11.5% average annual return. However, 2022 has been a particularly challenging year for the 60/40, which declined 16.1% in the first half of the year.

    Read more
    07/13/2022

    Is there a role for private real estate in my portfolio?

    What has not come into question is whether investors will need alternative sources of income and diversification. As such, it seems increasingly likely that private real estate will be part of the broader investment conversation in the years to come.

    Read more
    07/06/2022

    Are we already in a recession?

    Looking ahead, we recognize that recession risk has risen. That said, it seems premature to make a call that we are already in recession today.

    Read more
    06/29/2022

    Does investing in European equities still make sense?

    The tragic war in Ukraine has led to an indiscriminate sell-off in European equities. While headlines weigh on sentiment, the 1Q earnings season was strong for Europe.

    Read more
    06/16/2022

    Will the Fed tip the economy into recession?

    For investors, the Fed has laid out a hawkish path for rate increases with the intent to front load rate hikes. With such aggressive tightening this year, recession risks have risen further in 2023.

    Read more
    06/09/2022

    What should I know about quantitative tightening?

    Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.

    Read more
    06/03/2022

    Are you worried about an earnings recession?

    While rising interest rates and a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) help to explain what has gone on with valuations, it was not as clear why earnings estimates continued to move higher. Interestingly, however, companies have begun guiding earnings expectations lower in recent weeks, as it appears too difficult to continue ignoring rising costs and economic growth that is decelerating back toward trend.

    Read more
    05/27/2022

    Should I time the bottom in today’s market?

    Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.

    Read more
    05/25/2022

    Are bonds attractive?

    The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.

    Read more
    05/20/2022

    Are we in or headed towards a recession?

    The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

    Read more
    05/13/2022

    How do investors navigate market volatility?

    The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.

    Read more
    05/11/2022

    When will China’s economy and markets find their footing?

    The Year of the Tiger was expected to be a year of stabilization for China’s economy and of recovery for its equity market, following last year’s tough Year of the Ox. However, instead of positive surprises, investors have continued to grapple with uncertainties, both new and old.

    Read more
    05/06/2022

    Tax planning? Or a plan for taxes?

    At the end of the day, active tax management is a way to take advantage of volatility. Volatility is a hallmark of the capital markets, but it also tends to derail investors and undermine their ability to reach their long-term retirement goals.

    Read more
    05/05/2022

    How aggressive will the Federal Reserve (Fed) tighten monetary policy?

    At its May meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by 0.50% to 0.75%-1.00% and signaled similar 50 basis point rate increases would be on the table for the next couple of meetings.

    Read more
    04/29/2022

    Does China’s “COVID zero” approach threaten global supply chains?

    Since the onset of the pandemic, global supply chains have been stressed, weighing on economic growth and lifting consumer core goods inflation. Supply chain issues had seemed to peak in December, with some encouraging improvement in the first two months of 2022.

    Read more
    04/27/2022

    How do geopolitics highlight the need for more sustainable innovation?

    Although climate change is a key consideration in sustainable investing, sustainable investing is more broadly about finding companies that are durable in the long run and identifying risks that traditional company analysis may not capture.

    Read more
    04/22/2022

    What’s going on with the housing market?

    U.S. home prices have experienced incredible appreciation over the last decade, with particular strength in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.

    Read more
    04/14/2022

    What should investors expect for 1Q22 earnings?

    With financials kicking off the first quarter earnings season this week, our current estimate for 1Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $51.01 ($42.80 ex-financials), representing year-over-year growth of 7.6%.

    Read more
    04/13/2022

    Why is there so much demand for labor?

    The March employment report showed that the U.S. economy continues to recover in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, with the labor force exhibiting signs of multi-generational tightness.

    Read more
    04/08/2022

    Has the sell-off created an opportunity in growth stocks?

    2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic – as well as over the prior cycle – under pressure.

    Read more
    04/06/2022

    Should investors hedge the currency when investing in international equities?

    Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.

    Read more
    04/01/2022

    Just how hot is the labor market?

    One of the most critical levers to reduce carbon emissions globally is transportation. Transportation accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with nearly three-quarters coming from passenger travel and road freight.

    Read more
    03/12/2021

    What kind of equities should I own if inflation is rising?

    The remainder of 2021 should see an acceleration in economic activity, rising inflation, and higher interest rates. In general, this dynamic should support the outperformance of value relative to growth, with attractive relative valuations acting as an additional tailwind for value outperformance.

    Read more
    03/09/2020

    What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

    It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

    Read more
    03/03/2020

    Monetary medicine of limited effectiveness

    Even with this Fed action, there will likely be calls for fiscal action to support to businesses suffering from the response to virus fears, says David Kelly.

    Read more

    Featured Portfolio Insights

    Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q 2023

    Subtrend growth and elevated recession risks call for cautious allocation. Our highest conviction call is to be overweight duration. We modestly underweight equity and take a neutral stance on credit, preferring investment grade to high yield.

    Learn more

    Global Equity Views 2Q 2023

    Our portfolio managers remain slightly cautious and emphasize quality in portfolios. Valuations look very reasonable in most regions and industries, but the impact of higher interest rates will be a challenge in 2023.

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    Global Fixed Income Views 2Q 2023

    Recession remains our base case, at 60% probability, as central bankers say they will fight inflation aggressively. We lowered Crisis to 5% and raised Sub Trend Growth to 35%, acknowledging the global economy’s resilience.

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    Factor Views 1Q 2023

    During one of the most challenging years for investors, equity factors, led by value and quality, continued to climb. A blend of factors hit a record high to close out the year.

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