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    1. Insights

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    New U.S. 16 - 05 - 2022
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    On the Minds of Investors

    05/18/2022

    What are the investment opportunities in renewable energy?

    Progress on mitigating climate change hinges on cleaner energy as 73% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from energy usage in industry, buildings, and transport.

    Read more
    05/13/2022

    How do investors navigate market volatility?

    The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.

    Read more
    05/11/2022

    When will China’s economy and markets find their footing?

    The Year of the Tiger was expected to be a year of stabilization for China’s economy and of recovery for its equity market, following last year’s tough Year of the Ox. However, instead of positive surprises, investors have continued to grapple with uncertainties, both new and old.

    Read more
    05/06/2022

    Tax planning? Or a plan for taxes?

    At the end of the day, active tax management is a way to take advantage of volatility. Volatility is a hallmark of the capital markets, but it also tends to derail investors and undermine their ability to reach their long-term retirement goals.

    Read more
    05/05/2022

    How aggressive will the Federal Reserve (Fed) tighten monetary policy?

    At its May meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by 0.50% to 0.75%-1.00% and signaled similar 50 basis point rate increases would be on the table for the next couple of meetings.

    Read more
    04/29/2022

    Does China’s “COVID zero” approach threaten global supply chains?

    Since the onset of the pandemic, global supply chains have been stressed, weighing on economic growth and lifting consumer core goods inflation. Supply chain issues had seemed to peak in December, with some encouraging improvement in the first two months of 2022.

    Read more
    04/27/2022

    How do geopolitics highlight the need for more sustainable innovation?

    Although climate change is a key consideration in sustainable investing, sustainable investing is more broadly about finding companies that are durable in the long run and identifying risks that traditional company analysis may not capture.

    Read more
    04/22/2022

    What’s going on with the housing market?

    U.S. home prices have experienced incredible appreciation over the last decade, with particular strength in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.

    Read more
    04/20/2022

    What are the investment opportunities in recycling and re-use?

    The first thing most of us learned as children about protecting the environment was reduce, reuse, recycle. Those enduring principles are particularly relevant for companies looking to reduce their environmental footprint and their costs.

    Read more
    04/14/2022

    What should investors expect for 1Q22 earnings?

    With financials kicking off the first quarter earnings season this week, our current estimate for 1Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $51.01 ($42.80 ex-financials), representing year-over-year growth of 7.6%.

    Read more
    04/13/2022

    Why is there so much demand for labor?

    The March employment report showed that the U.S. economy continues to recover in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, with the labor force exhibiting signs of multi-generational tightness.

    Read more
    04/08/2022

    Has the sell-off created an opportunity in growth stocks?

    2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic – as well as over the prior cycle – under pressure.

    Read more
    04/06/2022

    Should investors hedge the currency when investing in international equities?

    Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.

    Read more
    04/01/2022

    Just how hot is the labor market?

    One of the most critical levers to reduce carbon emissions globally is transportation. Transportation accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with nearly three-quarters coming from passenger travel and road freight.

    Read more
    03/30/2022

    What are the opportunities in sustainable transportation?

    One of the most critical levers to reduce carbon emissions globally is transportation. Transportation accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with nearly three-quarters coming from passenger travel and road freight.

    Read more
    03/25/2022

    Is market timing worth it during periods of intense volatility?

    2022 will likely remain volatile for equity markets, as central banks normalize alongside persistently hot-inflation and geopolitical issues result in prolonged uncertainty.

    Read more
    03/23/2022

    What’s been driving the equity market rebound?

    Last week marked the best week for U.S. equities since November 2020, with the S&P 500 erasing almost half of its year-to-date losses. The S&P 500 is now only down 6.4% versus its max drawdown of 13% in 2022.

    Read more
    03/18/2022

    How might markets perform as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates?

    For the first time since December 2018, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by a ¼ percent to 0.25%-0.50% at its March meeting and made clear further increases would be appropriate to tame inflation.

    Read more
    03/16/2022

    Does the case for investing in EM equities still hold?

    Emerging market (EM) equities are underperforming for a second year, down -16.4% year-to-date after last year’s -2.2%.

    Read more
    03/11/2022

    What are the impacts of rising energy prices?

    Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on commodity markets, we thought inflation might finally see its peak in February.

    Read more
    03/09/2022

    How should investors position for a yield curve inversion?

    An inverted yield curve driven by short rates rising more than long-term yields has preceded every US recession since 1960 and is therefore a closely watched metric among investors regarding the outlook for the economy and markets.

    Read more
    03/04/2022

    Has the outlook for monetary and fiscal policy changed?

    While geopolitical tensions have reached a boiling point overseas, American investors have recently faced a set of potentially market-moving events at home: President Biden’s first State of the Union address and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony in front of Congress on monetary policy.

    Read more
    03/02/2022

    How should I think about geopolitics and volatility?

    Despite the horrible human and social impact, the conflict in Eastern Europe is currently noise for the market. Time will tell how things evolve, but the key risk is that higher commodity prices – and energy prices in particular – fail to be transitory.

    Read more
    02/24/2022

    Should I worry about Russia/Ukraine tensions impacting markets?

    Geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine have been a source of market volatility, especially since February 11th when President Biden warned there was a “very distinct possibility” of a coming Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    Read more
    02/23/2022

    Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by 50 basis points in March?

    Since the start of the year, markets have meaningfully repriced expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (the Fed) this year; projections have risen from 2-3 25 basis point (0.25%) increases to 6-7 currently.

    Read more
    02/18/2022

    Where are the opportunities in sustainable food and water?

    The coexistence of food waste and world hunger reflects a classic market failure. About 17% of food goes to waste globally, and yet an estimated 690 million people (8.9% of the world population) are undernourished.

    Read more
    02/16/2022

    How would international equities perform during a U.S. boom-bust recession?

    In both a U.S. led boom-bust recession and global synchronous growth, international equities could outperform, suggesting a key role for the asset class in portfolio construction.

    Read more
    02/11/2022

    Do investors really chase performance?

    Time and time again, investors get caught up in the good times and buy an asset when its price is inflated, only to turn around and sell it once optimism has receded and the price has fallen.

    Read more
    02/09/2022

    Why do advisors need to re-think retirement income?

    Retirement income can be a challenge for many advisors, and advice given to clients has often relied on rules of thumb based on assumptions of how households spend post-retirement.

    Read more
    02/04/2022

    What does the Social Cost of Carbon mean for investors?

    Regulatory action on carbon emissions is likely to intensify over the coming years, and companies that are actively addressing these risks could have a competitive advantage in the future.

    Read more
    02/02/2022

    What to expect in China from the Year of the Tiger?

    2021 was a year of steady reform introduction by Chinese authorities, focused on the long-term goals of improving the quality of growth and on addressing non-economic priorities like inequality, leverage, and decarbonization.

    Read more
    01/28/2022

    Jay be nimble, Jay be quick: How to position for a more hawkish Fed?

    Fixed income can still play defense during periods of market turbulence and investors would be wise to maintain exposure through a more active approach as rates grind higher.

    Read more
    01/26/2022

    U.S. equity markets are in or near correction: now what?

    After a rocky start to the year, a number of major U.S. equity markets are in or near correction territory.

    Read more
    01/14/2022

    What is the outlook for alternatives in 2022?

    There are plenty of opportunities across the alternative investment landscape. However, any allocation to alternatives should be outcome-oriented.

    Read more
    01/12/2022

    Is the case for international equities just about discounted valuations and currencies?

    2022 and beyond should present investors with those in the form of above trend international growth and stabilization in China.

    Read more
    01/07/2022

    December recap: Are investors positioned for monetary shifts in 2022?

    There was no shortage of market catalysts to begin December, with the emergence of the Omicron variant and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell stirring the markets.

    Read more
    01/05/2022

    What will happen to the top 10 S&P 500 companies in 2022?

    2021 was a better year than expected for U.S. equities, as a 34.5% increase in earnings expectations offset a 7.6% decline in valuations, leading to a price return of 26.9%.

    Read more
    12/23/2021

    Is Build Back Better dead?

    This week, hopes of passing the Build Back Better (BBB) Act, the climate and social spending package, were dashed when Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia said he would not vote for it due to concerns over further stoking inflation and increasing the national debt.

    Read more
    12/22/2021

    Should I expect a year-end correction?

    Although lockdowns and restrictions may drag on economic activity in the near term, we see three key drivers of economic growth in 2022.

    Read more
    12/17/2021

    How can employer-sponsored plans better serve younger adults?

    It is key that employers innovate the employee experience for younger professionals. Explore how employer-sponsored plans can better serve young adults.

    Read more
    12/16/2021

    Has the Federal Reserve (Fed) shifted more hawkish?

    Overall, investors should be prepared for an active Fed over the next few years. We expect the Fed to begin raising rates in June, and deliver one hike per quarter thereafter.

    Read more
    12/10/2021

    Does a continued inflation heatwave mean a more hawkish Fed?

    The November CPI report showed consumer prices rising at their fastest pace in nearly 40 years as surging gasoline prices, vehicle prices, and owner’s equivalent rent continued to drive inflation upwards.

    Read more
    12/08/2021

    November recap: How were portfolios positioned for November markets?

    Although risk assets enjoyed positive returns for most of November, the emergence of a new COVID variant and a hawkish pivot from the Fed prompted a risk-off environment to close the month, with investors positioned accordingly.

    Read more
    12/03/2021

    Is volatility higher because of omicron?

    Volatility has come roaring back, with the S&P 500 seeing its worst 2-day performance in over a year and the VIX back above 30 for the first time since February.

    Read more
    12/01/2021

    When will China’s economy find its footing?

    It is now becoming clear that Chinese policy makers no longer focus exclusively on the quantity of growth, but also on its quality. In addition, several other policy goals are taking priority as well, such as deleveraging, decarbonization, common prosperity and public health.

    Read more
    11/24/2021

    Is Jay here to stay?

    President Biden voted for continuity in monetary policy with his renomination of Jerome Powell to another four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair. He also elevated Governor Lael Brainard to Vice Chair, replacing Richard Clarida.

    Read more
    11/19/2021

    What progress was made at COP26?

    Some areas of the agenda were advanced, true progress may have been postponed to the end of 2022, when countries are expected to recommit or strengthen their net zero commitments, which currently fall short of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

    Read more
    11/17/2021

    Why are rates moving, just not higher?

    Rates have experienced some big swings recently, even though they have traded within a fairly narrow range over the past couple of months.

    Read more
    11/12/2021

    What does Fed policy mean for a fixed income portfolio?

    Looking forward, while we don’t yet know which of the previous periods the next cycle will best resemble, the market is currently pricing Fed “liftoff” in mid-2022, with a total of five hikes complete by the end of 2023.

    Read more
    11/10/2021

    Where do we stand on infrastructure spending?

    From our vantage point, it seems like a given that the President will sign the bipartisan bill into law. Looking at the budget reconciliation package, a deal will get done but it may come down to the wire.

    Read more
    11/05/2021

    Are all global central banks on the move?

    Investors should not paint all central banks with the same brush stroke as normalization will come in different shades: some central banks are already or close to being on the move, others will remain somewhat patient until next year, while others will remain firmly on hold.

    Read more
    11/04/2021

    How will the FOMC begin to reduce policy support?

    Tapering is not tightening, and while purchases will slow in the months ahead, the balance sheet will still expand by roughly $400 billion from now until mid-2022 and settle at around $9 trillion.

    Read more
    10/29/2021

    When will supply chain disruptions be resolved?

    Semiconductors have come into focus as one of the best examples of the supply constraints faced by the global economy.

    Read more
    10/27/2021

    What can we expect from the U.N. Climate Change Conference?

    The last summit in 2015 resulted in the Paris Agreement, an international treaty addressing climate change mitigation (by aiming to limit the increase in global temperatures by 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels), climate adaptation, and climate financing. Therefore, we anticipate meaningful discussion on these topics: achieving net zero, fiscal efforts , climate financing, carbon pricing.

    Read more
    10/22/2021

    What challenges are the Chinese economy and markets facing?

    Recent economic data affirms China’s slowdown as the economy normalizes while still facing lingering pandemic obstacles and the consequences of its intentional long-term reforms.

    Read more
    10/20/2021

    Has the government run out of funding?

    While these fears were warranted following the near technical defaults experienced in 2011 and 2013 due to the same debt ceiling issue, by a narrow vote, the House raised the debt ceiling on October 12th by $480 billion to $28.9 trillion, averting a technical default.

    Read more
    10/14/2021

    Is inflation still transitory?

    While higher inflation and a recent slowdown in economic growth have stoked stagflation fears amongst investors, we continue to expect inflation to tame in the coming months.

    Read more
    10/13/2021

    Why do investors love technology companies?

    Most investors seem to agree that technological adoption looks set to continue, but more and more we see people questioning the price they are paying for this exposure.

    Read more
    10/07/2021

    Why are oil prices soaring?

    While it was expected that easing pandemic conditions would support demand for oil, the move in spot prices this year has caused investors to question whether these price pressures will persist and lead to higher inflation.

    Read more
    10/05/2021

    Should investors worry about stagflation?

    The result of the supply bottlenecks has been slower sales and inventory build-up than desired, depressing growth. In addition, the short supply of goods and services has led to higher prices, with input and output price indices accelerating at record speed this year.

    Read more
    09/30/2021

    The debt ceiling dilemma: what should investors know?

    From an investment perspective, elevated uncertainty will likely fuel additional volatility in both equity and credit markets through the first half of October.

    Read more
    09/28/2021

    What is behind the rise in volatility?

    Rising volatility reflects a broader distribution of outcomes – clearly, the events of recent weeks have forced investors to broaden their horizons and embrace a wider range of scenarios.

    Read more
    09/23/2021

    Should global investors worry about the Chinese company Evergrande?

    Chinese equities can still provide investors higher return and low correlation to other equity markets, while Chinese bonds can provide higher yields and low correlation to the global bond market.

    Read more
    09/22/2021

    Is Fed tapering all but certain?

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sent a slightly hawkish signal to markets on its monetary policy outlook, recognizing that the delta variant has slowed economic progress, but also that inflation may prove somewhat stickier than they previously assumed.

    Read more
    09/16/2021

    What are the driving forces behind ESG investing?

    Sustainable investing, which considers environmental, social, and governance factors (ESG), is a philosophy most investors are aware of, but not all may fully understand it, as it has evolved meaningfully over the past few years

    Read more
    09/15/2021

    How is private equity doing in a post-pandemic world?

    As we move into the final months of 2021, it has become increasingly clear that the private market momentum which began to build in the back half of 2020 has shown no sign of abating.

    Read more
    09/07/2021

    Is the pandemic changing the long-term outlook for Social Security?

    Due to pandemic-related unemployment, funding from payroll taxes is down, but this is expected to be temporary, so it shouldn’t set back the program significantly.

    Read more
    09/02/2021

    Cash crusade: What are banks doing with the cash from quantitative easing?

    Until there is a resolution on the debt ceiling, net Treasury bill issuance is likely to remain materially negative in the coming month, putting continued downward pressure on short term interest rates.

    Read more
    09/01/2021

    Cash crusade: Where does money created via QE actually go?

    As tapering moves to the forefront of policy discussions, investors should understand the mechanics of quantitative easing, how money is created and flows into the financial system, and the impact it’s having on financial markets.

    Read more
    08/25/2021

    Where are Millennials investing their money?

    With greater attention being paid to younger Americans by the investment management industry, financial professionals are increasingly curious about the what, why and how of Millennial money management.

    Read more
    08/17/2021

    What is the cost of extreme weather?

    Extreme weather has prompted policy makers to focus on more resilient infrastructure and investments to mitigate climate change, which has meaningfully exacerbated extreme weather events.

    Read more
    08/11/2021

    When will the semiconductor shortage be resolved?

    While a variety of different input costs have been rising, a shortage of semiconductors has led to tight supply and demand dynamics around the world.

    Read more
    08/04/2021

    What should investors do after China’s increase in regulations?

    Investing in China the right way is key: with a portfolio of companies, listed both offshore and onshore, with a manager that has a local presence and can do long-term fundamental analysis.

    Read more
    07/28/2021

    How should investors view the recent Chinese equity sell-off?

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the Chinese new reforms and the subsequent selling pressure in Chinese equities, and what this means for investors.

    Read more
    07/27/2021

    Progress towards (substantial) progress

    The FOMC statement highlighted the continued improvement in economic conditions due to progress on vaccinations, but noted risks to the outlook still remain, largely reflecting the rise in cases over the past few weeks in unvaccinated communities.

    Read more
    07/20/2021

    Should I be worried about another recession?

    It is reasonable to believe that at some point we will see the U.S. economy return to a trend pace of growth, and furthermore, it would not be surprising for the recovery to be a bit more uneven that was originally anticipated.

    Read more
    07/14/2021

    Millennials: unique challenges for younger investors

    Understanding how to properly navigate conversations with Millennials and recognize the unique challenges that face younger investors today are important steps in building a successful relationship with the next generation of wealth.

    Read more
    07/07/2021

    Navigating conversations with the next generation of wealth

    Generational differences can present a challenge when navigating money management. Discover our best practices for making these conversations more fruitful.

    Read more
    06/30/2021

    Where is inflation heading?

    One of the most prevalent concerns among investors today is where inflation is heading next.

    Read more
    06/23/2021

    What are the investment implications of rising global inflation?

    After a sharp drop in 2020, global inflation is rising due to recovering energy, surging goods and normalizing services prices. This reflation signals building momentum in the global economy, a support for credit and equities, especially of cyclical regions like Europe, Japan, and EM ex-North Asia.

    Read more
    06/16/2021

    What’s the Federal Reserve’s outlook for monetary policy?

    At the June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled a more hawkish stance towards its monetary policy outlook driven by a materially stronger growth and inflation outlook in the medium term.

    Read more
    06/11/2021

    What do higher wages mean for corporate profits?

    The bottom line is that if inflation begins to rise, interest rates will rise, and valuations will come under pressure. So far, 2021 has been characterized by range bound valuations and rising earnings estimates, which has allowed the equity market to trend higher during the first half of the year.

    Read more
    06/09/2021

    Money Moves: Where are the U.S. equity opportunities and how are investors positioned?

    Following the recession in the first half of 2020, U.S. equities rebounded quickly. Today, partly due to this and partly due to the strong domestic reopening story, U.S. equities make up roughly 79% of total investor equity allocation, just 20 bps shy of an all-time high.

    Read more
    06/04/2021

    How can I prepare for a market correction?

    Investors may want to focus on the intersection of valuation and historical volatility when positioning equity portfolios for what could be a bumpy ride this summer.

    Read more
    06/02/2021

    Why are Emerging Market equities underperforming during this year of the recovery?

    EM offers investors access to powerful structural growth stories of the expansion: technological innovation and the rise of the EM Asia middle class, themes that will come back into favor once investors look past the early cycle economic growth surge.

    Read more
    05/28/2021

    Will job growth disappoint?

    A disappointing April report suggested a combination of higher federal unemployment benefits, lingering COVID concerns, and remote schooling constrained job growth, but as many of these factors ease in the coming months, job growth should increase.

    Read more
    05/26/2021

    What has been going on with cryptocurrencies?

    Regardless of one’s personal view, digital assets and cryptocurrencies are becoming an increasingly large part of the global financial system. As such, more and more investors are asking how they should think about them as both investments and currencies.

    Read more
    05/24/2021

    Which markets have further room to run in the year of the recovery?

    Looking ahead, European equities should stay supported given a substantial improvement in vaccinations, upcoming fiscal support, and a sizable valuation discount relative to the U.S. for a market that offers access to both the cyclical recovery and an inflation hedge.

    Read more
    05/19/2021

    Net zero: What opportunities arise from a carbon neutral world?

    The most successful companies of the past decade are not necessarily going to be the leaders of the next decade. Sustainability is likely to be a decade-defining theme, creating opportunities for the next generation of innovative companies.

    Read more
    03/12/2021

    What kind of equities should I own if inflation is rising?

    The remainder of 2021 should see an acceleration in economic activity, rising inflation, and higher interest rates. In general, this dynamic should support the outperformance of value relative to growth, with attractive relative valuations acting as an additional tailwind for value outperformance.

    Read more
    01/13/2021

    When will U.S. debt become unsustainable?

    With U.S. federal debt at 100.1% of GDP, the highest since World War II and rising, investors wonder what the breaking point could be.

    Read more
    06/10/2020

    What’s going on with stock market sentiment?

    While fundamentals– valuations, earnings and economic growth – dominate in the long run, the short run is a different matter.

    Read more
    03/09/2020

    What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

    It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

    Read more
    03/03/2020

    Monetary medicine of limited effectiveness

    Even with this Fed action, there will likely be calls for fiscal action to support to businesses suffering from the response to virus fears, says David Kelly.

    Read more

    Featured Portfolio Insights

    Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q 2022

    As asset markets recalibrate, we expect ongoing volatility and reduce risk levels accordingly. We trim equities to neutral, keep our duration underweight and remain overweight credit. Later in 2022 we see potential for better returns as uncertainty clears.

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    Global Equity Views 1Q 2022

    Equity markets had a bumpy start to the year even before the outbreak of war in Ukraine. We see profit growth continuing, though at a much slower pace. Our strategies have a strong bias to better-quality companies. Valuations look mostly reasonable.

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    Global Fixed Income Views 2Q 2022

    We revised our 2Q scenario expectations: Above Trend Growth fell to 50% while Sub Trend Growth rose to 25%, Recession to 15% and Crisis to 10%. Our best ideas include a combination of corporate credit, both investment grade and high yield, and short-duration securitized credit.

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    Factor Views 2Q 2022

    Amid tumultuous markets, factors generally had a positive quarter. Equity value, merger arbitrage and commodity factors all fared particularly well. We see an attractive outlook for equity factors, which remain historically cheap.

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    Portfolio Analysis

    Make the most of the economic recovery

    See the potential impact that various recovery scenarios may have on client portfolios.

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