Navigating market volatility while finding opportunities

Could higher tariffs reverse the Fed's easing course?

Today’s economic environment differs meaningfully from 2018—while the inflation heatwave is mostly past us, its embers are still alive.

Who would be the biggest beneficiaries of a corporate tax cut?

In 2018, the U.S. corporate tax rate was slashed from 35% to 21% when the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) went into effect. On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump proposed a further reduction from 21% to 15%, specifying this would apply to companies that make their products in America.

How does the Republican sweep impact the outlook for China and the rest of Asia?

With the U.S. election results settled, investors are now evaluating the economic policy implications. U.S. risk assets are buoyed by the ongoing soft landing and prospects of deregulation and lower corporate taxes.

How will the Fed respond to fiscal policy in future rate decisions?

In its penultimate meeting of 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%.

A potential Republican sweep sends markets higher, but policy uncertainty looms

Former President Trump has been declared the winner of the U.S. Presidential election, securing the Electoral College and likely the popular vote. Republicans regained control of the Senate and are expected to gain control of the House as well.

Why are yields moving higher?

Since the Fed’s jumbo 50 basis point rate cut in September, U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield have risen by 54bps and 59bps to 4.15% and 4.29%, respectively.

How would the U.S. dollar respond to a Trade War 2.0?

With the U.S. elections just a week away and polls indicating a tight race, investors are closely assessing potential impacts for currency markets.

With the economy so strong, why don’t Americans feel better?

If the U.S. economy were a pop star, it might be peak Taylor Swift. On nearly every major measure of economic health, the economy is in great shape and far ahead of its developed market peers.

Why is housing supply still so low?

Housing inventories remain near record lows, yet builders are not increasing construction volumes enough to sufficiently meet demand. Why aren't builders ramping up activity?

Have equity flows gone back to China after the stimulus announcement?

The combination of the stimulus announcement plus cheap valuations and underweight positions resulted in a surge in net flows into Chinese equities summing up to $12.7 billion from September 24th to October 14th.

Where are consumers spending today?

The American consumer has been resilient in the face of significant headwinds, helping keep the U.S. economy afloat and increasing the likelihood of a "soft landing". However, while aggregate consumption has remained robust, the way the consumer is spending across categories has changed since the start of 2020.

How might the U.S. election affect the clean energy transition?

Recent years have seen a significant acceleration in clean energy investment and grid decarbonization alongside the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act passed in August 2022.

The quarter in review: what happened in 3Q 2024?

After retracing 8.5% by early August, the S&P 500 had just about fully recovered by the end of the month, and subsequently powered to new highs after the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut.

Will China’s stimulus move the needle this time?

Chinese equities had a spectacular end to September, with the MSCI China up 21% from September 24th to 30th. The catalyst was the announcement of a series of economic stimulus measures focused on the housing market, domestic consumption, and the stock market.

Will U.S. port worker strikes negatively impact the economic outlook?

Utilities have traditionally been known for their defensive properties, which makes the combination of robust economic growth, technological excitement and elevated bond yields an unlikely recipe for their outperformance.

What is behind the rally in utility stocks?

Utilities have traditionally been known for their defensive properties, which makes the combination of robust economic growth, technological excitement and elevated bond yields an unlikely recipe for their outperformance.

What’s the latest in emerging markets?

Emerging market equities sold off along with other markets in early August. However, they have since rebounded 8%, bringing YTD performance to 11%. While China lags due to ongoing economic challenges, recent developments have sparked a small recovery.

Is the strong-dollar era over?

The relative strength and direction of the U.S. dollar matters: trade balances can fluctuate, multinational corporations can see foreign sales rise or fall and U.S. dollar-denominated investors in international markets can see returns amplified or diminished.

What message did the Federal Reserve deliver with its 50bp rate cut?

In a highly anticipated decision, the FOMC voted to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75%-5.00%, a larger-than-expected move and their first move lower since March 2020.

Are companies moving production out of China?

The change is most evident in international trade data. China's share of U.S. imports peaked at 22% in 2018 during the U.S.-China trade conflicts and sits at 11.5% as of June 2024.

How is inflation progressing ahead of the first rate cut?

The August CPI report showed further progress in inflation making its way down to 2%, setting the Fed up to begin normalizing monetary policy next week with a quarter point rate cut.

What are the key policy implications in the 2024 presidential race?

In this piece, we compare the proposals of Vice-President Harris and former President Trump across taxes, trade and immigration, and the potential market implications of different election outcomes.

What’s going on in alternative markets?

Elevated public market valuations, historically low bond yields and positive stock-bond correlation are all challenges facing the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Moving forward, investors may need to rely on alternative asset allocations to enhance return, income, and diversification in their portfolios.

How should investors be positioned ahead of Fed rate cuts?

“The time has come” was a memorable phrase from Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. After a few false dawns this year, Federal Reserve rate cuts are imminent, with the discussion now shifting to how quickly rates will come down.

What do upcoming rate cuts mean for fixed income investing?

Interest rate expectations have changed wildly since the start of the year. While these expectations will continue to evolve as new data are released, one thing seems clear: the Federal Reserve will begin its rate cutting cycle this year, and it will cut by more in 2024 than it had previously telegraphed.

Is more volatility expected from here?

Markets have largely rebounded from the volatility of the past two weeks. The S&P 500 has recovered 3.0% after a 4.8% decline, U.S. Growth equities have risen 4.3% following a 5.5% drop, and the VIX has settled at 20.7, after spiking to 55.1, its highest level since March 2020.

What’s behind the volatility in Japanese markets?

Large moves were seen in Japanese markets, which dropped 6% on Friday (8/2) and another 12% on Monday (8/5), marking the worst daily sell-off since 1987.

Will the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates at its next meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%, but hinted rate cuts are on the horizon.

Could the U.S. small cap rotation continue?

Mega-cap tech has enjoyed a long winning streak, but the stars recently began to align for the underdogs to take the lead.

What are the potential implications of the U.S. Election for emerging markets?

With the U.S. election approaching, potential U.S. policy changes are a key concern for global investors. After most U.S. elections, the MSCI EM Index has had positive performance in the 100 days following.

Is now the time to add duration to bond portfolios?

Later this month will mark a year since the last rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Historically, the end of a hiking cycle should have been an opportune time to extend duration by deploying cash into high quality intermediate fixed income securities.

What do U.S. investors need to know about the French elections?

While French politics are somewhat unique, the New Popular Front’s victory is the second win for a left-wing party so far this month after a strong defeat of the Conservatives in the UK.

The quarter in review: what happened in 2Q 2024?

Looking to the back half of the year and beyond, lingering geopolitical uncertainty and an upcoming U.S. presidential election, coupled with the divergence in performance across assets, underscores the importance of diversification in a fundamentally uncertain world.

What’s “good” about goods equities?

The “Magnificent 7” has massively outperformed the rest of the market, up roughly 30% since the start of the year compared to around 5% for the remaining companies, on AI-related headlines and strong earnings growth.

Is stock market concentration a warning sign?

Markets have a tendency to over appreciate the near term and under appreciate the long term. We think AI will lead to all sorts of business transformation and productivity gains in the long term, but recent performance has been driven by significant upgrades in near-term AI demand projections.

How is homeowners’ insurance impacting the macro data?

The average homeowners’ insurance policy cost roughly $1,900 in 2023, up over 20% from the previous year and nearly 50% from before the pandemic.

Is the Fed confident it can cut rates this year?

In the May CPI report, year-over-year headline inflation cooled to 3.3% from 3.4% - down one decimal, yet the median FOMC rate forecast for 2024 moved higher by half a percent.

What are the investment implications of MORENA’s landslide victory in the 2024 Mexican elections?

MORENA party’s candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, won the Mexican presidential election with a historic margin, receiving 60% of votes. This victory was anticipated, but the scale of left-leaning MORENA's win in Congress was unexpected.

How can investors diversify portfolios if when equities zig, bonds zig too?

For three years, stock and bond returns have been moving in the same direction. When times are good, this is not thought of as a problem; however, when stocks sell off and bonds are not there to catch them, then investors are faced with an important portfolio construction challenge to solve.

Is U.S. concentration in global equity indices too extreme?

The U.S. is the largest equity market in the world, but its weighting in the MSCI AC World Index exceeds its global equity market weighting and its projected contribution to global GDP in 2023.

Where are mortgage rates headed?

While we don’t expect home prices to decline materially from here given structural dynamics, Americans that have been sidelined from being able to purchase a home over the past couple of years are perhaps hoping and waiting for at least one area of reprieve: lower mortgage rates.

Can investment management harness the power of AI?

If 2023 was the year for AI excitement, this year may be the year for deployment. In first quarter earnings calls, approximately 45% of S&P 500 companies mentioned AI, marking a fresh high by our measures, and their collective investments continue to climb.

What’s going on with auto insurance costs?

Within that “super core” index, one small category (only 3% of the overall CPI basket) has been making outsized contributions: auto insurance.

Is investing in Asia about more than just China?

2023 marked a third consecutive year of double-digit declines for Chinese equity markets. Investors are now reconsidering how to invest in that market and whether investing in Asia is about more than just China.

Is the growth in private credit cannibalizing the high yield market?

To understand these shifting dynamics and determine how to embrace this growing asset class, investors should consider: What’s driving the growth of private credit and the decline in high yield and, if private credit deserves a strategic allocation in a broader credit portfolio?

Why is home ownership unattainable for so many young Americans?

Following the pandemic, median home prices surged by double digits until peaking at the end of 2022. While prices are down roughly 12% since then, home affordability still sits at multi-decade lows.

Will the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates this year?

At its May meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%.

Is inflation reaccelerating?

Sticky price pressures pose a challenge for the data-dependent Fed, casting doubt on the possibility of any rate cuts this year.

Which overseas markets are particularly attractive?

Investors should consider trimming decade-long international equity underweights – and Asia is the key place to look for opportunities.

Will exit activity improve in private equity?

Private equity has been surprisingly resilient throughout the Fed hiking cycle. In 2022, PE only declined by 2%, but is now 3.2% higher than the end of 2021, compared to U.S. small cap stocks, which were 7% lower.

Will the U.S. consumer keep economic growth afloat?

It’s well understood that consumption is the largest contributor to economic growth in the United States accounting for just under 70% of GDP. Therefore, to a large extent, any outlook on the economy hinges on the health of the consumer.

Does conflict escalation in the Middle East change the investment outlook?

Investors should recognize that while geopolitical headlines have the ability to capture market attention, the shocks to sentiment are often short-lived.

Does AI have the power to enhance our health?

Well-positioned investors could take advantage of the new era unfolding in healthcare transformation.

Should investors be constructive given yields or cautious given spreads in corporate bonds?

We expect yields to stabilize in the near term and for spreads to remain tight given still healthy credit fundamentals and strong economic activity.

The quarter in review: what happened in the first three months of 2024?

2023’s so-called “everything rally” was confusing to many market watchers, given the pessimistic macro outlook at the beginning of last year. Now, a quarter into 2024, the rally has clearly continued.

Can multiples still support the equity rally?

The S&P 500 notched 24 new all-time highs in Q1, up 10.6%, with 2.7%-points from earnings, 7.4% from multiple expansion, and 0.4% from dividends.

Has the housing market turned a corner?

While we don’t expect a recession this year, whenever one occurs, the lack of private sector imbalances suggest that it is unlikely to be a severe one.

Would Fed rate cuts benefit EM equities?

Investors should focus on EM regions and sectors that benefit from structural, as well cyclical, tailwinds.

When will the Federal Reserve start cutting interest rates?

As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50% at its March meeting.

Does it make sense to buy bitcoin?

Cryptocurrency investments should be made cautiously, and only as part of a much larger diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. For investors with a long time horizon, traditional asset allocation remains an effective strategy.

Could AI adoption be the catalyst for Asia tech?

For investors looking to diversify concentration to U.S. tech names or to lean into underappreciated AI opportunities, Asian high-quality technology stocks could provide an attractive opportunity set.

Will Japanese Yen strength derail the Japanese equity rally?

Despite causing some short-term profit taking, gradual Yen strength can be digested by equities. Japan finally deserves to retake its place as a strategic allocation in global equity portfolios.

What’s behind the surge in working women?

The financial future for women looks promising, but for individual investors, a strong financial plan will be key in seizing the opportunity.

Is commercial real estate finding a floor?

After a significant pricing reset, private real estate could be on the verge of a rebound due to a few key drivers.

What has the Fed done in election years?

With monetary policy still at the forefront of the macro landscape in 2024, investors are left wondering how the election might influence Fed policymakers.

Can harvesting tax losses improve investor outcomes?

Investors should recognize that the challenging backdrop presents an opportunity for alpha generation, both through traditional security selection and through active tax management

Are there opportunities outside the “Magnificent 7” and outside the U.S.?

For over a year, investors have been hyper-focused on the performance of just seven U.S. companies, nicknamed the “Magnificent 7”*, and rightfully so, given their outsized returns, earnings growth, and long-term tailwinds.

How can investors avoid falling into the “Cash Trap”?

Over the last 30 years, cash has been unable to keep up with the creep of inflation. By contrast, other investments have been much better places to park capital.

What does the election mean for taxes?

Presidential candidates will be campaigning on various policy proposals throughout the year, but one policy item that must be addressed during the next administration is whether to sunset or extend tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Market cap or equal weight?

The S&P 500 has reached a new milestone: crossing 5000. It is up 5.4% year-to-date, compared to the equal weight S&P 500, up just 0.7%.

Should investors be bullish or bearish on US equities?

While recession risks in the US have receded, geopolitical risk, election risk and restrictive monetary policy all threaten the current rally.

Are Chinese equities cheap enough?

As the Year of the Dragon is about to begin in China, investors wonder: Are Chinese equity valuations cheap enough to bring good fortune ahead? What will turn investor sentiment around? Equity valuations already reflect a lot of uncertainty about the short-term and long-term path, suggesting a tactical rebound may be in the cards.

How soon will the Federal Reserve (Fed) start cutting rates?

At the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year, the FOMC voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%.

What’s happened so far in 2024?

Geopolitical uncertainty and an impending U.S. presidential election, coupled with the divergence in performance across assets in January, help to underline the importance of diversification in a fundamentally uncertain world.

Can the Magnificent 7 retain its magnificence?

Much has been said about the “Magnificent 7” stocks that dominated market returns last year, ending 2023 up 107% and accounting for around two-thirds of the S&P 500’s performance.

Large caps, mid-caps, or small caps?

After an impressive equity rally in 2023 and new all-time highs to start 2024, investors are evaluating their equity allocations, which includes where to position along the market cap spectrum.

What will drive international equity performance this year?

International equities are likely to benefit this year from positive structural changes, a weaker dollar, and exciting governance changes.

How might geopolitical risks impact markets in 2024?

A spike in oil prices could lead to higher prices at the pump, further disrupting the broad disinflationary trend.

Does the December CPI report signal an inflation resurgence?

The December CPI report showed an unexpected bounce in inflation with headline CPI rising 0.3% m/m (consensus 0.2%) and the year-over-year rate rising to 3.4% (consensus 3.2%).

How much does policy influence sector performance?

Although investors may be tempted to invest based on who they think will win the election and how certain policies may be implemented, macro forces often dwarf policy agendas when it comes to sector performance.

Are markets too optimistic about rate cuts in 2024?

For investors, should fundamentals remain solid we would expect the Fed to begin gradually reducing rates by the middle of this year and for long-term rates to stabilize at current levels, before grinding lower over the balance of the year.

How sectors perform under Republicans vs. Democrats

Many investors wonder if they can tweak their existing exposures to be either more defensive against volatility or more opportunistic if certain sectors face future policy tailwinds.

What themes will drive the market in 2024?

We cannot predict what theme will dominate the markets in 2024, but we can control how we react to positive and negative surprises by having a measured approach to portfolios.

Will surging deficits contribute to higher interest rates in 2024?

Deficits are financed through Treasury issuance, and it is likely this significant increase in Treasury bond supply relative to estimates contributed to the move higher in bond yields this year.

Is the Federal Reserve finished raising interest rates?

At its final meeting of 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50% and strongly hinted it is finished hiking interest rates this cycle.

What is the outlook for 2024?

In many ways, 2023 can be used as evidence that asset allocators must learn to “expect the unexpected”: the U.S. economy avoided a recession, the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates higher, growth equity continued to outperform relative to value and the international recovery was largely lackluster.

How can alternative assets drive portfolio outcomes in 2024?

The macro landscape has shifted dramatically over the last three years, and in 2024 uncertainty lingers as to whether the economy will experience resilience or recession.

Is the recent enthusiasm about Japanese equities justified?

Japan has long been a disappointing market for global investors, with annualized 15-year returns of 6.4% (in U.S. dollars) versus 13.7% in the U.S. Slow growth, negative interest rates, lack of focus on shareholders, and better opportunities elsewhere in Asia kept investment dollars away from Japan.

When will higher rates start hurting companies?

For investors, large caps may be better insulated from higher rates than small caps, and falling net interest costs can assist decelerating input costs and wages in supporting stabilizing margins.

Have other equity market returns been as concentrated as those in the U.S.?

The big story for U.S. equity markets this year has been the remarkable performance of the largest seven technology stocks or the “magnificent 7.” These handful of stocks account for nearly 100% of S&P 500 YTD returns and are up over 72% this year.

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