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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Coming off autopilot

By GFICC Investors
With macroeconomic fears dominating the airwaves, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) may need to prepare to take a less predictable course.

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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

Amid slowing global growth momentum, November economic data was uninspiring. U.S. consumption and capex indicators moved lower and PMIs continued to fall.
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Weekly Market Recap

A one-page snapshot of market performance, statistics and trends.

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Global Equity Views 4Q 2018

By Paul Quinsee
We are a little more cautious amid rising U.S. rates and economic and profits cycles that are
long by historical standards. We find opportunity in our-of-favor areas including emerging
markets and Europe, and many financial stocks look attractive.
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Wind against the tide

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Rising core rates, escalating trade pressures and idiosyncratic stories in countries such as Argentina and Turkey continued to create volatility in emerging markets. We expect the first two themes to continue into the upcoming quarter, while noise from idiosyncratic stories marginally fades.
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Factor Views 4Q 2018

By Yazann Romahi, Garrett Norman
Amid global divergences and episodic trade tensions, a number of factors suffered, with equity value mired in its second-worst drawdown since 1990. We see potential catalysts in place across the equity, event-driven and macro spaces.
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Global Fixed Income Views 4Q 2018

By Bob Michele
Our base-case remains Above Trend Growth, as tariff battles unfold against an otherwise strong global economy. We favor U.S. and European high yield and leveraged loans, short-duration securitized credit, emerging market debt.
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Global Asset Allocation Views 4Q 2018

By John Bilton
Global growth is above trend, but changes to U.S. trade policy and the impact of higher U.S. rates have increased risks to our outlook. We overweight stocks, but trim our positioning, upgrade duration to a small overweight and remain neutral on credit.
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Connecting market and macroeconomic volatility

By Michael Hood, Grace Koo, Benjamin Mandel
In an environment of higher expected portfolio volatility and reduced cross-asset diversification, how can risk be tactically managed?
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Emerging Market Strategy Q2 2018: Internal strength, external risks

By George Iwanicki
Risks to an asset class come in two varieties—internal and external. In past cycles, the main risks to emerging markets came from within (overheating economies, FX peg regimes amid external deficits and hard currency-denominated sovereign debt, among others). But as we assess the prospect for EM equities, the risks today appear to be primarily external, not internal.
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold amid mixed signals on the economy

By Karen Ward
The Bank of England (BoE) held its base rate of interest unchanged at 0.5% at its meeting today.
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Renewable energy and battery storage: Impacts of disruption on the core infrastructure investor

Disruption threatens all investors. Every industry and sector faces disruption risks from new technologies, competitors, politics and regulations.
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3Q 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives

Introducing our third quarter 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives. A comprehensive array of market and economic trends illustrated with clear and compelling charts.
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Emerging Market Debt: Reflation takes root

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
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Inflation's next phase

By Benjamin Mandel, Michael Hood
For investors, the recovery of inflation and inflation risk premia, against the backdrop of anchored inflation expectations, imply a supportive environment for risk assets. Our outlook suggests continued upward pressure on the market pricing of inflation, manifesting in higher bond yields and a widening spread between nominal and inflation-protected bonds.
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A better opportunity in Europe

By Dr. David Kelly
While U.S. equities still look less expensive than Treasuries and cash, they are not as attractive as they once were. Investors looking for stronger long-term returns may find a better opportunity in European stocks.
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Entering the reflation era

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
We are entering a new investment paradigm: the era of "lower for longer" and "search for yield" has now been replaced by an era shaped by higher growth, inflation and rates.
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