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Weekly Bond Bulletin: A time to add risk?

By GFICC Investors
With strong global growth and a shift to tighter monetary policy continuing to make government duration look unattractive, is there value to be found in high yield, or even in emerging market debt?
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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

Ahead of party conference season and amidst evidence of further fissures within the UK’s main political parties, we review the outlook for the UK economy and major asset classes.
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Weekly Market Recap

A one-page snapshot of market performance, statistics and trends.

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Being prepared for the next market downturn

By Dr. David Kelly, Jordan Jackson
The next bear market will likely be associated with a U.S. recession. While it is impossible to pinpoint exactly when this might occur, the risk of recession is growing as the expansion ages.
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Global Equity Views 3Q 2018

By Paul Quinsee
While U.S. equities are progressing and stocks elsewhere have been weaker, we remain reasonably optimistic. Earnings are rising at a healthy pace and valuations look reasonable. Fears about profits’ sustainability may restrain gains from here.
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Factor Views 3Q 2018

By Yazann Romahi
As volatility subsided and equity markets recovered, performance was mixed across factors. We see potential catalysts in place across the equity, event-driven and macro spaces.
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Mind the Valuation

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Broad emerging market (EM) fundamentals at both the sovereign and corporate end remain strong; however, the widening growth gap between the US and other developed markets, in addition to rising core yields and stronger US dollar, has created a challenging external environment for emerging markets.
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Global Fixed Income Views 3Q 2018

By Bob Michele
Our base-case scenario remains Above Trend Growth, amid continuing global economic strength. We remain cautious on U.S. rates, expecting market volatility with transition away from QE. Favored sectors: Short duration securitized credit, leveraged credit.
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Global Asset Allocation Views 3Q 2018

By John Bilton

While global growth remains above trend, it is late cycle. We are modestly pro-risk, but our conviction is a touch lower. We keep a moderate overweight to stocks, but close our duration underweight and remain neutral on credit and cash.

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Connecting market and macroeconomic volatility

By Michael Hood, Grace Koo, Benjamin Mandel
In an environment of higher expected portfolio volatility and reduced cross-asset diversification, how can risk be tactically managed?
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Emerging Market Strategy Q2 2018: Internal strength, external risks

By George Iwanicki
Risks to an asset class come in two varieties—internal and external. In past cycles, the main risks to emerging markets came from within (overheating economies, FX peg regimes amid external deficits and hard currency-denominated sovereign debt, among others). But as we assess the prospect for EM equities, the risks today appear to be primarily external, not internal.
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold amid mixed signals on the economy

By Karen Ward
The Bank of England (BoE) held its base rate of interest unchanged at 0.5% at its meeting today.
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Renewable energy and battery storage: Impacts of disruption on the core infrastructure investor

Disruption threatens all investors. Every industry and sector faces disruption risks from new technologies, competitors, politics and regulations.
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Emerging markets strategy Q1 2018: Volatility returns, fundamentals stay strong

By George Iwanicki
The combination of broadening economic growth and contained inflation is driving strong earnings gains.
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The investment outlook for 2018

By Dr. David Kelly, Samantha Azzarello, David Lebovitz
Heading into 2018, it is important to remember some time-tested principles for successful long-term investing: cash isn’t always king, diversification is essential, harness the power of compounding and don’t let volatility derail you.
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3Q 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives

Introducing our third quarter 2017 Guide to the Markets and Quarterly Perspectives. A comprehensive array of market and economic trends illustrated with clear and compelling charts.
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Emerging Market Debt: Reflation takes root

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
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Inflation's next phase

By Benjamin Mandel, Michael Hood
For investors, the recovery of inflation and inflation risk premia, against the backdrop of anchored inflation expectations, imply a supportive environment for risk assets. Our outlook suggests continued upward pressure on the market pricing of inflation, manifesting in higher bond yields and a widening spread between nominal and inflation-protected bonds.
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A better opportunity in Europe

By Dr. David Kelly
While U.S. equities still look less expensive than Treasuries and cash, they are not as attractive as they once were. Investors looking for stronger long-term returns may find a better opportunity in European stocks.
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Entering the reflation era

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
We are entering a new investment paradigm: the era of "lower for longer" and "search for yield" has now been replaced by an era shaped by higher growth, inflation and rates.
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