Skip to main content
logo
  • Products

    Investment Vehicles

    • ETFs
    • Commingled Funds
  • Investment Strategies

    Investment Options

    • Alternatives
    • Beta Strategies
    • Equities
    • Fixed Income
    • Global Liquidity
    • Multi-Asset Solutions
    • Commingled Funds

    Capabilities & Solutions

    • ETFs
    • Global Insurance Solutions
    • Liability-Driven Investing
    • Pension Strategy & Analytics
    • Outsourced CIO
    • Retirement Plan Solutions
    • Sustainable Investing
  • Insights

    Market Insights

    • Market Insights Overview
    • Eye on the Market
    • Guide to the Markets
    • Guide to Alternatives
    • Market Updates

    Portfolio Insights

    • Portfolio Insights Overview
    • Alternatives
    • Asset Class Views
    • Currency
    • Equity
    • Fixed Income
    • Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
    • Portfolio Strategy
    • Sustainable Investing Insights
    • Strategic Investment Advisory Group

    Retirement Insights

    • Retirement Insights Overview
    • Guide to Retirement
    • Defined Contribution
  • Resources
    • Center for Investment Excellence Podcasts
    • Events & Webcasts
    • Insights App
    • Library
    • Taft-Hartley
    • Market Response Center
    • NEW: Morgan Institutional
  • About Us
    • Trusted Asset Manager
    • Diversity, Equity & Inclusion
  • Contact us
  • English
  • Role
  • Country
  • Morgan Institutional
    Search
    Search
    Menu
    You are about to leave the site Close
    J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s website and/or mobile terms, privacy and security policies don't apply to the site or app you're about to visit. Please review its terms, privacy and security policies to see how they apply to you. J.P. Morgan Asset Management isn’t responsible for (and doesn't provide) any products, services or content at this third-party site or app, except for products and services that explicitly carry the J.P. Morgan Asset Management name.
    CONTINUE Go Back
    1. Will the Fed cause inflation?

    • LinkedIn Twitter Facebook

    Will the Fed cause inflation?

    05/27/2020

    Alex Dryden

    Over the last few years, the velocity of money has fallen to record low levels, meaning that money, whilst it's being printed, is not moving quickly around the economy, and therefore isn't generating the inflationary heat like it would do a few decades ago.

    Alex Dryden

    Listen to On the Minds of Investors

    05/27/2020

    The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis. Such a dramatic loosening of monetary policy has led investors to worry about the potential for inflation in the years ahead. History is littered with examples of countries who have turned to the printing press during times of distress and the end result is typically inflation or even hyper-inflation. However, this time around expansionary monetary policy may not result in runaway inflation.

    Historically, an increase in the money supply leads to higher levels of inflation, but investors should remember that supply is only one driver of overall prices. Another important component is the speed at which money moves around the system – often referred to as the velocity of money. As we highlight in the below chart, the velocity of money is at record low levels. The sluggish speed at which money moves through the economy means that the money supply can increase significantly without necessarily causing high levels of inflation.

    Economists don’t have a clear explanation as to why the velocity of money has been falling so sharply, instead attributing it to a range of factors including but not limited to: 

    • Aging demographic profiles: Older individuals save and spend in a different way compared to younger people.

    • Banking regulation: Tougher capital requirements mean that banks need to keep more cash on hand to meet regulations. This limits the speed at which money moves through the system.

    • Conservative fiscal mindset: Post the Financial Crisis, economic agents are adopting a fiscally cautious approach dampening the demand for loans and slowing the speed at which cash moves through the system as individuals opt to save rather than spend.

    • Rising inequality: Wealthier individuals tend to save and invest excess money rather than spend it. As inequality levels rise this can slow the speed at which money moves through the economy.

    While these drivers may be diverse, they are similar in that they are all quite structural in nature and are unlikely to disappear overnight. This means that the money supply may be able to rise quite dramatically without triggering dramatic increases in inflation. With that being said, investors are right to watch inflation carefully. A shift in inflation can have a profound impact across asset classes. 

    Velocity of money
    Quarterly, nominal GDP/money supply (m2)

    Source: BEA, FactSet, Federal Reserve System, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of May 19, 2020.

    0903c02a828e8866

    EXPLORE MORE

    On the Minds of Investors

    What investment questions are on the minds of investors? Explore the questions investors ask frequently and find answers at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

    Read more

    Guide to the Markets

    The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

    Read more

    Asset Class Views

    Get quarterly commentary and in-depth analysis on equities, fixed income and other asset classes, written by our senior investment teams.

    Read more
    • Economy
    J.P. Morgan Asset Management

    • About us
    • Investment stewardship
    • Privacy policy
    • Cookie policy
    • Binding corporate rules
    • Sitemap
    • Accessibility
    Opens LinkedIn site in new window
    J.P. Morgan

    • J.P. Morgan
    • JPMorgan Chase
    • Chase

    This website is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purposes. By receiving this communication you agree with the intended purpose described above. Any examples used in this material are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. None of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, its affiliates or representatives is suggesting that the recipient or any other person take a specific course of action or any action at all. Communications such as this are not impartial and are provided in connection with the advertising and marketing of products and services. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from personal financial, legal, tax and other professionals that take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.

    Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors.

    INFORMATION REGARDING INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICES:   J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. Investment Advisory Services  provided by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.

    INFORMATION REGARDING MUTUAL FUNDS/ETF: Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives and risks as well as charges and expenses of a mutual fund or ETF before investing. The summary and full prospectuses contain this and other information about the mutual fund or ETF and should be read carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus for Mutual Funds: Contact JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc. at 1-800-480-4111 or download it from this site. Exchange Traded Funds: Call 1-844-4JPM-ETF or download it from this site.

    J.P. Morgan Funds and J.P. Morgan ETFs are distributed by JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., which is an affiliate of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Affiliates of JPMorgan Chase & Co. receive fees for providing various services to the funds. JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc. is a member of FINRA  FINRA's BrokerCheck

    INFORMATION REGARDING COMMINGLED FUNDS: For additional information regarding the Commingled Pension Trust Funds of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., please contact your J.P. Morgan Asset Management representative.

    The Commingled Pension Trust Funds of JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. are collective trust funds established and maintained by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. under a declaration of trust. The funds are not required to file a prospectus or registration statement with the SEC, and accordingly, neither is available. The funds are available only to certain qualified retirement plans and governmental plans and is not offered to the general public. Units of the funds are not bank deposits and are not insured or guaranteed by any bank, government entity, the FDIC or any other type of deposit insurance. You should carefully consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the fund before investing.

    INFORMATION FOR ALL SITE USERS: J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide.

    NOT FDIC INSURED | NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE

    Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and/or recorded.

    Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https://www.jpmorgan.com/privacy.

    If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.

    READ IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION. CLICK HERE >

    The value of investments may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

    Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.