Skip to main content
logo
  • Products

    Investment Vehicles

    • ETFs
    • Commingled Funds
  • Investment Strategies

    Investment Options

    • Alternatives
    • Beta Strategies
    • Equities
    • Fixed Income
    • Global Liquidity
    • Multi-Asset Solutions
    • Commingled Funds

    Capabilities & Solutions

    • ETFs
    • Global Insurance Solutions
    • Liability-Driven Investing
    • Pension Strategy & Analytics
    • Outsourced CIO
    • Retirement Plan Solutions
    • Sustainable Investing
  • Insights

    Market Insights

    • Market Insights Overview
    • Eye on the Market
    • Guide to the Markets
    • Guide to Alternatives
    • Market Updates

    Portfolio Insights

    • Portfolio Insights Overview
    • Alternatives
    • Asset Class Views
    • Currency
    • Equity
    • Fixed Income
    • Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
    • Portfolio Strategy
    • Sustainable Investing Insights
    • Strategic Investment Advisory Group

    Retirement Insights

    • Retirement Insights Overview
    • Guide to Retirement
    • Defined Contribution
  • Resources
    • Center for Investment Excellence Podcasts
    • Events & Webcasts
    • Insights App
    • Library
    • Taft-Hartley
    • Market Response Center
    • NEW: Morgan Institutional
  • About Us
    • Trusted Asset Manager
    • Diversity, Equity & Inclusion
    • Sustainable Investing
  • Contact us
  • English
  • Role
  • Country
  • Morgan Institutional
    Search
    Search
    Menu
    You are about to leave the site Close
    J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s website and/or mobile terms, privacy and security policies don't apply to the site or app you're about to visit. Please review its terms, privacy and security policies to see how they apply to you. J.P. Morgan Asset Management isn’t responsible for (and doesn't provide) any products, services or content at this third-party site or app, except for products and services that explicitly carry the J.P. Morgan Asset Management name.
    CONTINUE Go Back
    1. What does post-COVID leverage mean for investing?

    • LinkedIn Twitter Facebook

    What does post-COVID leverage mean for investing?

    04/24/2020

    Samantha Azzarello

    We're expecting a massive and unprecedented amount of leverage to be taken on by all economic actors, and in the aftermath of all of this.

    Samantha Azzarello

    Listen to On the Minds of Investors

    04/24/2020

    While many changes are likely to emerge, one clear trend, with far-reaching macro and market implications, is the increase in leverage, says Azzarello.

    While significant uncertainty around the current economic situation persists, many investors are already considering what the world will look like after COVID-19. What are the possible economic scars? And what will the new cycle be characterized by? While many themes and structural changes are likely to emerge, one clear trend, with far-reaching macro and market implications, is the increase in leverage. The massive amount of debt that will have been taken on during this period across different segments of the economy is likely to be unprecedented.

    In the aftermath, we expect the following:

    • For consumers: an increase in the savings rate, as caution decreases discretionary spending to shore up household balance sheets, and an increase in demand for wealth management, asset management and insurance products.
    • For governments: in addition to a raging debate around the sustainability of current debt levels, it seems clear that tax rates must increase at some point in the future. This implies an even greater need for tax-aware investing strategies and tax-efficient portfolios.
    • For corporations: companies with greater leverage will have a heavier burden to carry – even at very low rates – and one that will likely be less tolerated by investors looking to focus on quality, which continues to be a suggested overweight in portfolios.

    These trends will likely manifest themselves in both stocks and bonds, and across market capitalizations, sectors and styles. For example, the chart below shows the gap between leverage levels for small and large cap companies has been widening for the last 5 years. Moreover, while small caps have historically carried about 1.3x more debt than large caps, they now have close to 1.9x more. Given that small cap stocks are likely to take on additional debt while experiencing large negative earnings hits in the near future, this trend will like be amplified.

    Dynamics such as these will bifurcate the way companies are viewed and rewarded by investors. Therefore, an increased focus on security selection, both in the equity and fixed income markets, will be crucial.

    Debt levels for small cap companies are significantly higher than large cap companies

    Net debt to EBITDA for large and small caps

    Source: FTSE Russell, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

    0903c02a8289b2f0

    EXPLORE MORE

    On the Minds of Investors

    What investment questions are on the minds of investors? Explore the questions investors ask frequently and find answers at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

    Read more

    Guide to the Markets

    The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

    Read more

    Asset Class Views

    Get quarterly commentary and in-depth analysis on equities, fixed income and other asset classes, written by our senior investment teams.

    Read more
    • Equities
    • Fixed Income
    • Economy
    J.P. Morgan Asset Management

    • About us
    • Investment stewardship
    • Privacy policy
    • Cookie policy
    • Binding corporate rules
    • Sitemap
    • Accessibility
    Opens LinkedIn site in new window
    J.P. Morgan

    • J.P. Morgan
    • JPMorgan Chase
    • Chase

    This website is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purposes. By receiving this communication you agree with the intended purpose described above. Any examples used in this material are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. None of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, its affiliates or representatives is suggesting that the recipient or any other person take a specific course of action or any action at all. Communications such as this are not impartial and are provided in connection with the advertising and marketing of products and services. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from personal financial, legal, tax and other professionals that take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.

    Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors.

    INFORMATION REGARDING INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICES:   J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. Investment Advisory Services  provided by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.

    INFORMATION REGARDING MUTUAL FUNDS/ETF: Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives and risks as well as charges and expenses of a mutual fund or ETF before investing. The summary and full prospectuses contain this and other information about the mutual fund or ETF and should be read carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus for Mutual Funds: Contact JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc. at 1-800-480-4111 or download it from this site. Exchange Traded Funds: Call 1-844-4JPM-ETF or download it from this site.

    J.P. Morgan Funds and J.P. Morgan ETFs are distributed by JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., which is an affiliate of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Affiliates of JPMorgan Chase & Co. receive fees for providing various services to the funds. JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc. is a member of FINRA  FINRA's BrokerCheck

    INFORMATION REGARDING COMMINGLED FUNDS: For additional information regarding the Commingled Pension Trust Funds of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., please contact your J.P. Morgan Asset Management representative.

    The Commingled Pension Trust Funds of JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. are collective trust funds established and maintained by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. under a declaration of trust. The funds are not required to file a prospectus or registration statement with the SEC, and accordingly, neither is available. The funds are available only to certain qualified retirement plans and governmental plans and is not offered to the general public. Units of the funds are not bank deposits and are not insured or guaranteed by any bank, government entity, the FDIC or any other type of deposit insurance. You should carefully consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the fund before investing.

    INFORMATION FOR ALL SITE USERS: J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide.

    NOT FDIC INSURED | NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE

    Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and/or recorded.

    Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https://www.jpmorgan.com/privacy.

    If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.

    READ IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION. CLICK HERE >

    The value of investments may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

    Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.