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    Guide to the Markets

    The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

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    Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

    Discover J.P. Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, drawing on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide.

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    Guide to Alternatives

    Get insights on macro topics such as manager dispersion, while also diving into real estate, private credit, private equity and hedge funds and more.

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    Market Commentary

    What are the investment opportunities in sustainable construction?

    Many of the innovations and technologies needed for a carbon neutral economy are not yet available, but there are still many existing solutions that can be implemented today to reduce emissions, particularly in how we manage energy efficiency in buildings and appliances.

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    Will the Fed tip the economy into recession?

    For investors, the Fed has laid out a hawkish path for rate increases with the intent to front load rate hikes. With such aggressive tightening this year, recession risks have risen further in 2023.

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    What should I know about quantitative tightening?

    Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.

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    Are you worried about an earnings recession?

    While rising interest rates and a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) help to explain what has gone on with valuations, it was not as clear why earnings estimates continued to move higher. Interestingly, however, companies have begun guiding earnings expectations lower in recent weeks, as it appears too difficult to continue ignoring rising costs and economic growth that is decelerating back toward trend.

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    Should I time the bottom in today’s market?

    Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.

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    Are bonds attractive?

    The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.

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    Are we in or headed towards a recession?

    The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

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    What are the investment opportunities in renewable energy?

    Progress on mitigating climate change hinges on cleaner energy as 73% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from energy usage in industry, buildings, and transport.

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    How do investors navigate market volatility?

    The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.

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    When will China’s economy and markets find their footing?

    The Year of the Tiger was expected to be a year of stabilization for China’s economy and of recovery for its equity market, following last year’s tough Year of the Ox. However, instead of positive surprises, investors have continued to grapple with uncertainties, both new and old.

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    Tax planning? Or a plan for taxes?

    At the end of the day, active tax management is a way to take advantage of volatility. Volatility is a hallmark of the capital markets, but it also tends to derail investors and undermine their ability to reach their long-term retirement goals.

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    How aggressive will the Federal Reserve (Fed) tighten monetary policy?

    At its May meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by 0.50% to 0.75%-1.00% and signaled similar 50 basis point rate increases would be on the table for the next couple of meetings.

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    Does China’s “COVID zero” approach threaten global supply chains?

    Since the onset of the pandemic, global supply chains have been stressed, weighing on economic growth and lifting consumer core goods inflation. Supply chain issues had seemed to peak in December, with some encouraging improvement in the first two months of 2022.

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    How do geopolitics highlight the need for more sustainable innovation?

    Although climate change is a key consideration in sustainable investing, sustainable investing is more broadly about finding companies that are durable in the long run and identifying risks that traditional company analysis may not capture.

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    What’s going on with the housing market?

    U.S. home prices have experienced incredible appreciation over the last decade, with particular strength in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.

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    What are the investment opportunities in recycling and re-use?

    The first thing most of us learned as children about protecting the environment was reduce, reuse, recycle. Those enduring principles are particularly relevant for companies looking to reduce their environmental footprint and their costs.

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    What should investors expect for 1Q22 earnings?

    With financials kicking off the first quarter earnings season this week, our current estimate for 1Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $51.01 ($42.80 ex-financials), representing year-over-year growth of 7.6%.

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    Why is there so much demand for labor?

    The March employment report showed that the U.S. economy continues to recover in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, with the labor force exhibiting signs of multi-generational tightness.

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    Has the sell-off created an opportunity in growth stocks?

    2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic – as well as over the prior cycle – under pressure.

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    Should investors hedge the currency when investing in international equities?

    Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.

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    Just how hot is the labor market?

    One of the most critical levers to reduce carbon emissions globally is transportation. Transportation accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with nearly three-quarters coming from passenger travel and road freight.

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    What are the opportunities in sustainable transportation?

    One of the most critical levers to reduce carbon emissions globally is transportation. Transportation accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with nearly three-quarters coming from passenger travel and road freight.

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    Is market timing worth it during periods of intense volatility?

    2022 will likely remain volatile for equity markets, as central banks normalize alongside persistently hot-inflation and geopolitical issues result in prolonged uncertainty.

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    What’s been driving the equity market rebound?

    Last week marked the best week for U.S. equities since November 2020, with the S&P 500 erasing almost half of its year-to-date losses. The S&P 500 is now only down 6.4% versus its max drawdown of 13% in 2022.

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    How might markets perform as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates?

    For the first time since December 2018, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by a ¼ percent to 0.25%-0.50% at its March meeting and made clear further increases would be appropriate to tame inflation.

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    Does the case for investing in EM equities still hold?

    Emerging market (EM) equities are underperforming for a second year, down -16.4% year-to-date after last year’s -2.2%.

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    What are the impacts of rising energy prices?

    Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on commodity markets, we thought inflation might finally see its peak in February.

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    How should investors position for a yield curve inversion?

    An inverted yield curve driven by short rates rising more than long-term yields has preceded every US recession since 1960 and is therefore a closely watched metric among investors regarding the outlook for the economy and markets.

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    Has the outlook for monetary and fiscal policy changed?

    While geopolitical tensions have reached a boiling point overseas, American investors have recently faced a set of potentially market-moving events at home: President Biden’s first State of the Union address and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony in front of Congress on monetary policy.

    Read more

    How should I think about geopolitics and volatility?

    Despite the horrible human and social impact, the conflict in Eastern Europe is currently noise for the market. Time will tell how things evolve, but the key risk is that higher commodity prices – and energy prices in particular – fail to be transitory.

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    Should I worry about Russia/Ukraine tensions impacting markets?

    Geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine have been a source of market volatility, especially since February 11th when President Biden warned there was a “very distinct possibility” of a coming Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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    Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by 50 basis points in March?

    Since the start of the year, markets have meaningfully repriced expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (the Fed) this year; projections have risen from 2-3 25 basis point (0.25%) increases to 6-7 currently.

    Read more

    Where are the opportunities in sustainable food and water?

    The coexistence of food waste and world hunger reflects a classic market failure. About 17% of food goes to waste globally, and yet an estimated 690 million people (8.9% of the world population) are undernourished.

    Read more

    How would international equities perform during a U.S. boom-bust recession?

    In both a U.S. led boom-bust recession and global synchronous growth, international equities could outperform, suggesting a key role for the asset class in portfolio construction.

    Read more

    Do investors really chase performance?

    Time and time again, investors get caught up in the good times and buy an asset when its price is inflated, only to turn around and sell it once optimism has receded and the price has fallen.

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    Why do advisors need to re-think retirement income?

    Retirement income can be a challenge for many advisors, and advice given to clients has often relied on rules of thumb based on assumptions of how households spend post-retirement.

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    What does the Social Cost of Carbon mean for investors?

    Regulatory action on carbon emissions is likely to intensify over the coming years, and companies that are actively addressing these risks could have a competitive advantage in the future.

    Read more

    What to expect in China from the Year of the Tiger?

    2021 was a year of steady reform introduction by Chinese authorities, focused on the long-term goals of improving the quality of growth and on addressing non-economic priorities like inequality, leverage, and decarbonization.

    Read more

    Jay be nimble, Jay be quick: How to position for a more hawkish Fed?

    Fixed income can still play defense during periods of market turbulence and investors would be wise to maintain exposure through a more active approach as rates grind higher.

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    U.S. equity markets are in or near correction: now what?

    After a rocky start to the year, a number of major U.S. equity markets are in or near correction territory.

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    What is the outlook for alternatives in 2022?

    There are plenty of opportunities across the alternative investment landscape. However, any allocation to alternatives should be outcome-oriented.

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    Is the case for international equities just about discounted valuations and currencies?

    2022 and beyond should present investors with those in the form of above trend international growth and stabilization in China.

    Read more

    December recap: Are investors positioned for monetary shifts in 2022?

    There was no shortage of market catalysts to begin December, with the emergence of the Omicron variant and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell stirring the markets.

    Read more

    What will happen to the top 10 S&P 500 companies in 2022?

    2021 was a better year than expected for U.S. equities, as a 34.5% increase in earnings expectations offset a 7.6% decline in valuations, leading to a price return of 26.9%.

    Read more

    Is Build Back Better dead?

    This week, hopes of passing the Build Back Better (BBB) Act, the climate and social spending package, were dashed when Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia said he would not vote for it due to concerns over further stoking inflation and increasing the national debt.

    Read more

    Should I expect a year-end correction?

    Although lockdowns and restrictions may drag on economic activity in the near term, we see three key drivers of economic growth in 2022.

    Read more

    How can employer-sponsored plans better serve younger adults?

    It is key that employers innovate the employee experience for younger professionals. Explore how employer-sponsored plans can better serve young adults.

    Read more

    Has the Federal Reserve (Fed) shifted more hawkish?

    Overall, investors should be prepared for an active Fed over the next few years. We expect the Fed to begin raising rates in June, and deliver one hike per quarter thereafter.

    Read more

    Does a continued inflation heatwave mean a more hawkish Fed?

    The November CPI report showed consumer prices rising at their fastest pace in nearly 40 years as surging gasoline prices, vehicle prices, and owner’s equivalent rent continued to drive inflation upwards.

    Read more

    November recap: How were portfolios positioned for November markets?

    Although risk assets enjoyed positive returns for most of November, the emergence of a new COVID variant and a hawkish pivot from the Fed prompted a risk-off environment to close the month, with investors positioned accordingly.

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    Is volatility higher because of omicron?

    Volatility has come roaring back, with the S&P 500 seeing its worst 2-day performance in over a year and the VIX back above 30 for the first time since February.

    Read more

    When will China’s economy find its footing?

    It is now becoming clear that Chinese policy makers no longer focus exclusively on the quantity of growth, but also on its quality. In addition, several other policy goals are taking priority as well, such as deleveraging, decarbonization, common prosperity and public health.

    Read more

    What progress was made at COP26?

    Some areas of the agenda were advanced, true progress may have been postponed to the end of 2022, when countries are expected to recommit or strengthen their net zero commitments, which currently fall short of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

    Read more

    Why are rates moving, just not higher?

    Rates have experienced some big swings recently, even though they have traded within a fairly narrow range over the past couple of months.

    Read more

    What does Fed policy mean for a fixed income portfolio?

    Looking forward, while we don’t yet know which of the previous periods the next cycle will best resemble, the market is currently pricing Fed “liftoff” in mid-2022, with a total of five hikes complete by the end of 2023.

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    Where do we stand on infrastructure spending?

    From our vantage point, it seems like a given that the President will sign the bipartisan bill into law. Looking at the budget reconciliation package, a deal will get done but it may come down to the wire.

    Read more

    How will the FOMC begin to reduce policy support?

    Tapering is not tightening, and while purchases will slow in the months ahead, the balance sheet will still expand by roughly $400 billion from now until mid-2022 and settle at around $9 trillion.

    Read more

    When will supply chain disruptions be resolved?

    Semiconductors have come into focus as one of the best examples of the supply constraints faced by the global economy.

    Read more

    What can we expect from the U.N. Climate Change Conference?

    The last summit in 2015 resulted in the Paris Agreement, an international treaty addressing climate change mitigation (by aiming to limit the increase in global temperatures by 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels), climate adaptation, and climate financing. Therefore, we anticipate meaningful discussion on these topics: achieving net zero, fiscal efforts , climate financing, carbon pricing.

    Read more

    What challenges are the Chinese economy and markets facing?

    Recent economic data affirms China’s slowdown as the economy normalizes while still facing lingering pandemic obstacles and the consequences of its intentional long-term reforms.

    Read more

    Has the government run out of funding?

    While these fears were warranted following the near technical defaults experienced in 2011 and 2013 due to the same debt ceiling issue, by a narrow vote, the House raised the debt ceiling on October 12th by $480 billion to $28.9 trillion, averting a technical default.

    Read more

    Is inflation still transitory?

    While higher inflation and a recent slowdown in economic growth have stoked stagflation fears amongst investors, we continue to expect inflation to tame in the coming months.

    Read more

    Why do investors love technology companies?

    Most investors seem to agree that technological adoption looks set to continue, but more and more we see people questioning the price they are paying for this exposure.

    Read more

    Why are oil prices soaring?

    While it was expected that easing pandemic conditions would support demand for oil, the move in spot prices this year has caused investors to question whether these price pressures will persist and lead to higher inflation.

    Read more

    Should investors worry about stagflation?

    The result of the supply bottlenecks has been slower sales and inventory build-up than desired, depressing growth. In addition, the short supply of goods and services has led to higher prices, with input and output price indices accelerating at record speed this year.

    Read more

    The debt ceiling dilemma: what should investors know?

    From an investment perspective, elevated uncertainty will likely fuel additional volatility in both equity and credit markets through the first half of October.

    Read more

    What is behind the rise in volatility?

    Rising volatility reflects a broader distribution of outcomes – clearly, the events of recent weeks have forced investors to broaden their horizons and embrace a wider range of scenarios.

    Read more

    Should global investors worry about the Chinese company Evergrande?

    Chinese equities can still provide investors higher return and low correlation to other equity markets, while Chinese bonds can provide higher yields and low correlation to the global bond market.

    Read more

    Is Fed tapering all but certain?

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sent a slightly hawkish signal to markets on its monetary policy outlook, recognizing that the delta variant has slowed economic progress, but also that inflation may prove somewhat stickier than they previously assumed.

    Read more

    What are the driving forces behind ESG investing?

    Sustainable investing, which considers environmental, social, and governance factors (ESG), is a philosophy most investors are aware of, but not all may fully understand it, as it has evolved meaningfully over the past few years.

    Read more

    How is private equity doing in a post-pandemic world?

    As we move into the final months of 2021, it has become increasingly clear that the private market momentum which began to build in the back half of 2020 has shown no sign of abating.

    Read more

    Is the pandemic changing the long-term outlook for Social Security?

    Due to pandemic-related unemployment, funding from payroll taxes is down, but this is expected to be temporary, so it shouldn’t set back the program significantly.

    Read more

    Cash crusade: Where does money created via QE actually go?

    As tapering moves to the forefront of policy discussions, investors should understand the mechanics of quantitative easing, how money is created and flows into the financial system, and the impact it’s having on financial markets.

    Read more

    Where are Millennials investing their money?

    With greater attention being paid to younger Americans by the investment management industry, financial professionals are increasingly curious about the what, why and how of Millennial money management.

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    What is the cost of extreme weather?

    Extreme weather has prompted policy makers to focus on more resilient infrastructure and investments to mitigate climate change, which has meaningfully exacerbated extreme weather events.

    Read more

    Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

    Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.

    Read more

    When will the semiconductor shortage be resolved?

    While a variety of different input costs have been rising, a shortage of semiconductors has led to tight supply and demand dynamics around the world.

    Read more

    How should investors view the recent Chinese equity sell-off?

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the Chinese new reforms and the subsequent selling pressure in Chinese equities, and what this means for investors.

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    Progress towards (substantial) progress

    The FOMC statement highlighted the continued improvement in economic conditions due to progress on vaccinations, but noted risks to the outlook still remain, largely reflecting the rise in cases over the past few weeks in unvaccinated communities.

    Read more

    Should I be worried about another recession?

    It is reasonable to believe that at some point we will see the U.S. economy return to a trend pace of growth, and furthermore, it would not be surprising for the recovery to be a bit more uneven that was originally anticipated.

    Read more

    Millennials: unique challenges for younger investors

    Understanding how to properly navigate conversations with Millennials and recognize the unique challenges that face younger investors today are important steps in building a successful relationship with the next generation of wealth.

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    Navigating conversations with the next generation of wealth

    Generational differences can present a challenge when navigating money management. Discover our best practices for making these conversations more fruitful.

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    Where is inflation heading?

    One of the most prevalent concerns among investors today is where inflation is heading next.

    Read more

    What does post-COVID leverage mean for investing?

    While many changes are likely to emerge, one clear trend, with far-reaching macro and market implications, is the increase in leverage, says Azzarello.

    Read more

    What kind of equities should I own if inflation is rising?

    The remainder of 2021 should see an acceleration in economic activity, rising inflation, and higher interest rates. In general, this dynamic should support the outperformance of value relative to growth, with attractive relative valuations acting as an additional tailwind for value outperformance.

    Read more

    When will U.S. debt become unsustainable?

    With U.S. federal debt at 100.1% of GDP, the highest since World War II and rising, investors wonder what the breaking point could be.

    Read more

    Should I expect a market correction?

    The S&P 500 has marched steadily higher from its March 23rd low against a backdrop of investor skepticism. In previous posts, we have discussed how this rally is being driven by three things.

    Read more

    Will the Fed cause inflation?

    The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.

    Read more

    Has all EM behaved the same way this year?

    Year-to-date, emerging market (EM) equities are down -17.6%, as a combination of the COVID-19 recession and the oil price shock has led to downward revisions to earnings expectations, as well as weaker currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.

    Read more

    Is now the time to invest in small cap stocks?

    Global markets have roiled in the face of COVID-19 and social distancing, and many investors are looking to “pick up the pieces,” eagerly hunting for the next big opportunity.

    Read more

    Why are oil prices negative?

    Earlier this week, oil prices turned negative for the first time in history, with WTI trading as low as -$37 a barrel.

    Read more

    What will the reopening of the economy look like?

    Over the past two months investors have digested the COVID-19 shock: the fast spread of the virus around the world, the social distancing measures implemented and the resulting economic and earnings recession.

    Read more

    1Q20 earnings: Virus oddity

    1Q20 earnings season will provide an important first look at how the ongoing pause in global activity is impacting corporate earnings.

    Read more

    What does COVID-19 mean for real estate?

    The industries most impacted by social distancing account for 20% of payroll employment, and consumer spending across those industries account for 20% of GDP.

    Read more

    What are the risks and opportunities in high yield?

    Today’s objectively complicated credit market may be an excellent source of future portfolio growth, says Dryden.

    Read more

    Will American small business fire its workers?

    Ultimately, how high the unemployment rate gets is dependent on one key question: will American small business fire its workers, says Manley.

    Read more

    A COVID-driven spike in claims

    Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.

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    The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation

    This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.

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    What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?

    The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.

    Read more

    What will an earnings recession look like?

    As economists continue to revise down their 2020 GDP estimates, a lot of clients have been asking us about the potential impact on earnings.

    Read more

    Can the Fed do more?

    This past Sunday, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) fired a last desperate salvo in an attempt to stabilize financial conditions, the second emergency inter-meeting cut in two weeks.

    Read more

    What policy response would help to stabilize markets?

    Coming into this year, we expected an improvement in global economic growth, as 2019’s policy uncertainty clouds dissipated.

    Read more

    The investment implications of COVID-19: An update

    The COVID-19 crisis confirms, once again, the value of a diversified portfolio, says David Kelly.

    Read more

    What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

    It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

    Read more

    Should I buy the dip?

    There is not a clear answer. However, what we can provide perspective on, is where we are finding value, according to David Lebovitz.

    Read more

    How does Super Tuesday affect the election campaign ahead?

    Former Vice President Joe Biden made a surprise comeback during the Super Tuesday contests, paving the way for a two-person race to the Democratic nomination.

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    Monetary medicine of limited effectiveness

    Even with this Fed action, there will likely be calls for fiscal action to support to businesses suffering from the response to virus fears, says David Kelly.

    Read more

    What do you like more, value or growth?

    Equity investors spend a lot time looking for where earnings growth will be strong; what doesn't get as much attention is what happens after they're generated.

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    Should investors worry about the jobs market?

    Taken at face value, the fall in job openings is concerning and warrants careful monitoring.

    Read more

    What does the coronavirus mean for investors?

    Financial markets have fallen sharply on concerns of the coronavirus, a respiratory illness first identified in Wuhan, China, spreading globally.

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    What is priced in to equity markets?

    Equity market valuations have risen substantially in recent months, with the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 now at a level of 18.6x.

    Read more

    Should investors worry about inflation?

    Investors are now asking whether inflation could return, threatening the rally in financial markets.

    Read more

    Should I wait to buy the dip?

    Buying the dip - the coveted strategy (almost) all investors like to employ.

    Read more

    Will tensions with Iran cause an oil spike?

    Rising geopolitical tensions with Iran have led to some fears over potential oil supply shocks out of the Middle East.

    Read more

    Why should I stay invested?

    Rising geopolitical tensions with Iran have led to some fears over potential oil supply shocks out of the Middle East.

    Read more

    Featured Portfolio Insights

    Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q 2022

    As asset markets recalibrate, we expect ongoing volatility and reduce risk levels accordingly. We trim equities to neutral, keep our duration underweight and remain overweight credit. Later in 2022 we see potential for better returns as uncertainty clears.

    Learn more

    Factor Views 2Q 2022

    Amid tumultuous markets, factors generally had a positive quarter. Equity value, merger arbitrage and commodity factors all fared particularly well. We see an attractive outlook for equity factors, which remain historically cheap.

    Learn more

    Global Equity Views 2Q 2022

    Despite recent weakness in global markets, many of our portfolio managers remain rather cautious about the outlook. Quality and predictability, as well as modest valuations, matter most in this environment.

    Learn more

    Emerging Market Debt Quarterly Strategy report Q1 2022

    Our quarterly EMD strategy report assesses the latest economic developments in emerging markets and sets out our base case scenario for the asset class

    Learn more

    Global Fixed Income Views 3Q 2022

    Sub Trend Growth is now our base case scenario, at 45%. We cut our expectation of Above Trend Growth to 20%, increased Recession to 25% and left Crisis at 10%. Our best idea: high quality, short-duration bonds, in particular short-dated investment grade corporate bonds and securitized credit.

    Learn more
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