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              <p>2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions</p>

              The 30th annual edition explores how rising economic nationalism and fiscal activism create both challenges and silver linings for investors. Technology adoption will provide a near-term boost to profits and a longer-term boost to productivity.

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              Projections for stronger portfolios

              Our assumptions see attractive real return potential, while differentiation across assets provides a richer hunting ground for active investors .

              Shifting landscapes and silver linings

              Rising economic nationalism and fiscal activism create both challenges and silver linings for investors. The return for a USD global 60/40 stock-bond portfolio holds steady at 6.4% while a 60/40+ with alternative assets increases overall returns and lowers volatility. We see a fertile backdrop for good active managers.

              Portfolio construction in flux

              A traditional “60/40” portfolio may be challenged to meet investor objectives. Diversifying the diversifiers is essential (global currencies, alpha strategies, and uncorrelated alternatives). A “60/40+” portfolio with diversified alternatives can boost returns and lower volatility – but the size and mix will be unique to each investor.

              Resilient growth and warmer inflation

              Despite dramatic policy shifts, particularly in the U.S., global growth remains resilient and inflation only slightly warmer and more variable. Economic nationalism and policy uncertainty create lasting drags and a more fragmented environment, giving technology an increasingly central role in sustaining growth. 

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              Matrices

              Our expectations for returns, volatilities and correlations. 


              The assumptions are not designed to inform short term tactical allocation decisions. Our assumptions process is carefully calibrated and constructed to aid investors with strategic asset allocation or policy-level decisions over a 10- to 15-year investment horizon.

              Download Excel and PDF matrices by currency

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              Download this year's Long Term Capital Market Assumptions report

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              NOT FOR RETAIL DISTRIBUTION: This communication has been prepared exclusively for institutional/wholesale/professional clients and qualified investors only as defined by local laws and regulations.

               

              JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. “Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example, changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control. The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results. 

               

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