Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
Time-tested projections to build stronger portfolios
The 2020 edition of J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions draws on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide. Refined and expanded over 24 years, our in-depth, proprietary process provides 10- to 15-year risk and return projections for more than 50 strategy and asset classes.
Please note that our 2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions were originally calculated as of September 30, 2019 and published in November 2019, and thus did not reflect recent extreme price moves in many asset markets resulting from the ongoing COVID-19 disruption. Please refer to the Executive Summary page to discover our updated assumptions as of March 31, 2020. Please reach out to firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions.
For the very first time we are providing an off-cycle mark-to-market of our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions return projections, prompted by the profound shock to the economy and markets of COVID-19. Our senior investors also share personal recollections and insights from prior financial crises. While no two bear markets are the same, the lessons of history can offer a helpful perspective.
Investors and advisors depend on our projections to inform their strategic asset allocations. The assumptions are at the core of our own approach to building strong portfolio solutions aligned with clients’ investment needs.
These articles look into issues likely to have a profound and protracted impact on the global investment landscape.
A broad overview providing a context for how some of the structural factors affecting economies today are likely to drive asset returns over a 10- to 15-year investment horizon.
The failure of monetary stimulus
The next phase of China's growth
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JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. “Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example, changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control. The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide.
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