Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst
U.S. manufacturing has moved from a position of mid-century dominance to widespread offshoring, but recent disruptions – including COVID-19, geopolitical tensions and especially tariff pressures – have exposed supply chain vulnerabilities. These challenges have renewed interest in domestic manufacturing, and with supportive policies and advancing technology, the sector is now poised for revitalization.
In fact, America’s economic engine may be primed to ROAR louder than ever before, setting the pace for prosperity and progress in the decades to come, fueled by the following:
R: Re-shoring
O: Optimization of supply chains
A: Automation
R: Robotics
Re-shoring
The evolution of the manufacturing sector is the result of decades of gradual change, shaped by shifts in global economic trends and competitive pressures. The golden age of manufacturing in the 1950s and 1960s marked the peak of U.S. dominance. Subsequently, capital flight and lower wages prompted the relocation of manufacturing overseas – a trend that persisted for decades and fundamentally reshaped the sector. This trend is largely responsible for the moribund GDP growth, which was cut in half from a robust 4.4% during the 1950s and 1960s to just 2.2% in the 2000s.
More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic delivered a major structural shock as lockdowns further disrupted global supply chains and exposed their fragility. Transit times for ocean and airfreight lengthened, freight rates spiked and factories halted production. In fact, during the height of the pandemic, shipping rates from Shanghai to New York quadrupled, jumping from $2,000 to $16,000 (see Exhibit 1). In the aftermath, rising geopolitical tensions and the implementation of tariffs acted as deterrents, while policy changes within the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) provided incentives to encourage a resurgence of domestic investment. U.S. corporations can now fully deduct capital spending in the first year, offering a powerful financial incentive for companies to invest in production and distribution capabilities. A revival of U.S. manufacturing is poised to invigorate not only the industrial and technology sectors but also drive GDP growth and employment gains.
For example, Apple recently invested $2.5 billion to significantly expand Corning’s Harrodsburg, Kentucky plant, positioning this American manufacturer as the exclusive global supplier of glass covers for all iPhones and Apple watches. The initiative will also establish a new Apple-Corning Innovation Center focused on advanced materials research and is expected to increase the local workforce by 50%, from 350 to over 500 employees. While the absolute number of new jobs may be modest, this move is highly significant: Corning will be the global producer of all Apple watches and iPhone device glass. This is one of many important steps toward revitalizing U.S. manufacturing by demonstrating that major companies are investing in domestic production.
Optimization of domestic supply chains
Supply chain optimization – from sourcing to delivery – is critical for regionalized manufacturing, enabling companies to deliver products faster, more efficiently and at lower cost. The disruptions of 2020 – marked by a surge in cancelled sailings and tripled transit times – were the most extreme example of why domestic supply chain resilience is essential. Just-in-time manufacturing led to missed sales, higher costs and inefficient capital allocation as companies scrambled to increase inventory. With most goods still shipped by sea freight – which can take up to 40 days – the events of 2020 underscore the need for more robust and efficient supply chain strategies. Now, the use of tariffs is further incentivizing companies to focus on domestic production and distribution, strengthening the case for optimized local supply chains.
We expect the rise of regional hubs for manufacturing, assembly and distribution to further strengthen the U.S. economic foundation. As international production declines, shipping demand will shift from ocean freight to domestic rail, truck and parcel services, helping these sectors regain lost business-to-business volume. Shorter shipment routes offer significant cost savings – $2,000 to $7,000 or more per container – along with reduced inventory, faster turnaround and lower risk. While domestic manufacturing costs may be higher, a comprehensive supply chain evaluation can uncover additional efficiencies.
Notably, Newell Brands has already transformed its Tennessee factory into a model for efficient, high-volume U.S. manufacturing, now producing over half a billion Sharpie markers annually with advanced automation and a centralized supply chain. Led by CEO Chris Peterson, nearly $2 billion in investments in robots and employee training have tripled production speed and improved quality, while boosting wages and retaining jobs. These upgrades have helped Newell offset inflation, lower production costs and avoid raising Sharpie prices, which still retail for about $1 per pen in a pack. The shift to U.S. manufacturing has also enabled faster order fulfillment and reduced shipping costs. Today, most Sharpies are made in America, with plans to bring even more production back from overseas.1
Automation
The landscape of U.S. manufacturing has changed dramatically. Manufacturing employment peaked at nearly 20 million people in 1979, but now stands at less than 13 million, representing just 8% of the domestic workforce – a 35% decline from its all-time high. This decline can be attributed to several factors: the growth of the service economy, the relocation of manufacturing to lower-cost countries and changing generational preferences, to name a few. This shift has resulted in the average age of a U.S. factory worker increasing from mid-30s in the 1950s to mid-40s in 2025. The trend of capital flight out of the United States has been driven in part by the search for cheaper labor. In fact, a U.S. factory worker earns approximately five times more than their counterparts in China. Highly automated manufacturing facilities will be essential for the United States to compete with the low labor rates from China, Southeast Asia and Mexico.
Our research team, through direct fieldwork and industry engagement, identified a compelling opportunity with Emerson Electric (EMR), a recognized leader in factory automation controls. EMR’s advanced technology powers automated machinery in countless factories and LNG (liquefied natural gas) facilities, enabling tasks like turning valves or wheels to be performed by machines rather than people – driving efficiency and reducing labor costs.
As stated earlier in our Apple example, major investments in domestic manufacturing – like Apple’s expansion of Corning’s Kentucky plant – reflect a broader shift toward advanced, U.S.-based production. EMR is well positioned to benefit from this trend, as facilities increasingly depend on sophisticated automation controls to enhance efficiency and productivity. With EMR’s technology powering automated machinery and utility operations nationwide, the company is poised to capture significant opportunities as more manufacturers invest in domestic production and automation.
Robotics
While not yet fully commercially viable, companies are actively testing and deploying robots in distribution and manufacturing environments to handle dangerous, repetitive or undesirable tasks. Amazon, for example, has implemented robots like Proteus – an automated transport system that efficiently sorts and moves boxes, enhancing operational efficiency and workplace safety. More than one million robots now operate in Amazon’s facilities, nearly matching the number of human workers, and the company has trained more than 700,000 employees globally for higher-paying roles involving robotics. Advanced robots, such as Vulcan, are integrated into order fulfillment processes, working alongside humans to pick, sort and package items. Currently, about 75% of Amazon’s global deliveries are assisted by robotics, boosting productivity and helping address high staff turnover.2 As the second-largest private employer in the United States, Amazon’s broad rollout of robots signals how technological advances are transforming factory floors and labor markets nationwide.
Humanoid robots represent the next frontier, with the potential to revolutionize inspections, sorting and parts movement. While most robotics innovators remain private, IPOs are anticipated; currently, Tesla is the only publicly traded U.S. company actively testing humanoid robots. With operating costs under $1 per hour, robots offer significant cost advantages and are driving greater collaboration between machines and human workers. As robotic technology advances, its adoption is expected to further enhance safety, productivity and working conditions in industrial environments.
In conclusion, a new era for the U.S. economy is emerging as we push to bring manufacturing back home. Recent investments and technological advancements are not just revitalizing factories – they are reshaping how goods are produced and delivered, making operations faster, safer and more efficient. As these trends accelerate, both established and emerging firms stand to gain, setting the stage for stronger growth and innovation in the years ahead. The future of American industry is bright – and it will ROAR louder than ever.
Research is key to our investment process
With research at the heart of active investment management, asset managers with robust research capabilities will be in the best position to capture these trends across their portfolios. At J.P. Morgan Asset Management, research is a highly regarded career, and our equity research analysts have dedicated their careers to becoming true sector experts across more than 5,000 companies.