Managing Director, GFICC
Vice President, GFICC
Over the past decade, investors faced extraordinary events—a pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and a regional banking crisis, all coupled with a historic rise in cash yields as the Federal Reserve battled inflation. This led to unprecedented cash accumulation as money market fund balances grew from $3.5 trillion in 2020 to $8 trillion today 1. However, the advantages of holding cash are fading. Cash rates have dropped by roughly 175 basis points 2, with further cuts possible, making cash less of a safe haven and more of a potential drag on portfolio performance.
So what should investors be doing with their excess cash? This article makes the case for short-duration bonds and highlights the potential benefits of moving beyond cash.
Why Short Duration Fixed Income Now?
Short duration bonds offer income generation without the full interest-rate sensitivity of intermediate and long bonds. With the yield curve now normalized, the front end provides compelling yields of 4 to 5%, rewarding investors who step out of cash while keeping total return volatility contained as policy and inflation paths evolve.
The track record is clear: actively managed short duration ETFs have outperformed cash over the past three years, despite significant interest rate volatility and deeply inverted yield curves. The combination of higher starting yields and lower duration risk helped drive these results, and the setup going forward is even more favorable. With cash yields having fallen 175 basis points and yield curves having steepened, the tailwind for outperformance is even stronger.
Today's elevated yields also create a substantial income cushion that can absorb small price declines if rates rise from here, making positive returns far more likely. Unlike longer-duration bonds, where even modest rate increases can overwhelm coupon income, short duration strategies tilt the odds firmly in the investor's favor. The direction of Fed policy reinforces this case: short duration ETFs have a higher sensitivity to the Fed Funds rate, so if the Fed holds rates steady or cuts further, these strategies are positioned to significantly outperform cash as money market yields reprice lower and short duration portfolios lock in today's higher rates for longer. It would, in fact, require the Fed to hike rates by over 2.75% to generate a negative return over a 12-month period, a scenario far outside the current consensus (see footnote for calculation methodology). A simple back of the envelope calculation can help you determine return expectations. Duration is a measure of a fund’s price sensitivity to a 1% change in interest rates. If a hypothetical fund has a duration of 2yrs and interest rates rise by 1%, the funds price will fall by 2% (conversely, a 1% drop in interest rates will result in price increase of 2%). But, total return includes the combination of price changes AND income earned. Income expectations can be measured by the fund’s yield. If our hypothetical fund has a yield of 4.5%, this is added to the price change to determine the total return experience. In other words, even if interest rates rise by 1%, the return will still be positive over a twelve month holding period.
Investors are taking notice. We believe the $24 billion that moved into the short duration space in 2025 is just the tip of the iceberg, with a tidal wave of cash expected to move out the curve in the years to come.
Lower Sensitivity to Interest Rates & Lower Sensitivity to Credit Spreads
The Importance of Active Management
Short duration is not a set-and-forget allocation. Traditional benchmarks are composed primarily of Treasuries and corporate bonds, underrepresenting attractive areas like securitized markets. Active management is essential at the front end of the curve, where security selection and portfolio structure can significantly impact outcomes.
Skilled managers curate exposure across investment-grade corporates and securitized markets, prioritizing collateral quality, structural protections, and stable cash flows to enhance yield while maintaining defensiveness. By moving beyond benchmark constraints, active portfolios can access off-the-run bonds, specific securitized tranches, and maturity buckets with superior risk-reward profiles. They also have the flexibility to adjust positioning throughout the market cycle—reallocating across sectors, ratings, and issuers as conditions evolve to capture opportunities and mitigate drawdowns.
Choosing the Right Short Duration ETF
The evolution of the short duration ETF market has provided investors with a broad array of options to navigate today’s rapidly changing environment. However, not all short duration ETFs are created equal. Investors should carefully evaluate liquidity, credit risk, sector allocation, and the role of active management. A key consideration is the tradeoff between yield and credit risk: lower-rated credit typically offers higher yield but increases default and downgrade risk. Investors must assess whether the additional yield compensates for the extra risk.
Conclusion: A Timely Opportunity
Cash yields are already materially lower and could decline further. Active short duration strategies have proven they can outperform cash through one of the most volatile rate environments in recent memory—and with normalized yield curves, elevated income cushions, and a Fed policy path likely to remain steady or shift toward easing, the case is even more compelling. For those with a 12-month or longer horizon on excess cash, actively managed short duration ETFs provide a timely way to enhance yield, retain liquidity, and efficiently diversify the fixed income portion of a portfolio.