Week in review
- China GDP grew 5% y/y in 1Q26
- China retail sales grew 1.7% y/y in March
- U.S. PPI increased 0.5% m/m in March
Week ahead
- Japan March inflation rate
- U.S. March retail sales
- China loan prime rate
Thought of the week
China's economy expanded 5.0% y/y in Q1, exceeding market expectations and accelerating from 4.5% prior. While the headline print looks upbeat, underlying activity data told a more mixed story. Industrial production outpaced forecasts at 5.7% y/y in March, supported by export strength, yet this further entrenched supply-demand imbalances even as capacity utilization edged down to 73.6%. On the demand side, retail sales disappointed at 1.7% y/y, with declines in autos, home appliances, and leisure goods raising concerns given these were targeted areas of policy support, while fixed asset investment also softened and urban unemployment unexpectedly ticked up to 5.4%. The strong headline reduces urgency for additional stimulus, with authorities now watching for Middle East spillovers rather than U.S. tariff impacts before deploying further support, and the 2026 growth trajectory appearing well-anchored within the official 4.5–5.0% target range. Middle East tensions remain a tail risk, potentially pushing up input costs and pressuring margins, though China's diversified energy mix offers relative insulation.
China real GDP growth rate
Year-over-year change (y/y)

Source: NBS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 17/4/2026.
Market data

300a4900-f9d9-11e8-839f-fe2ee17e7f12
All returns in local currency unless stated otherwise.
Currencies’ return are based on foreign currencies per U.S. dollar. An appreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be positive and a depreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be negative.