Week in review
- U.S. Federal Reserve cuts policy rate 25bps
- ECB holds rates at 2.00%
- BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.50%
Week ahead
- U.S. ISM manufacturing and Services PMIs
- China RatingDog PMIs
- Europe retail sales
Thought of the week
Last week was a big week in terms of central bank policy meetings, with the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Federal Reserve all seeing decisions that were generally in line with consensus. The results from the Bank of Japan meeting were closely watched as markets were concerned that the newly appointed Prime Minister Takaichi, who is considered dovish on monetary policy, may influence the BoJ’s rate hike decisions, putting the central bank’s independence and credibility at risk. The BoJ reaffirmed its stance of continuing rate hikes depending on the incoming data and explained that it is monitoring the impact of tariff policies on Japanese companies’ earnings, wage-setting behavior, and the results of the spring labor negotiations (Shunto). The BoJ also suggested that it does not need to wait for the final results of Shunto to make rate hike decisions, and that being able to gauge the "initial momentum" of Shunto is sufficient. While this is not a strong statement either way, expectations of a December move did drop. We still expect a rate hike in December or January next year.
Market pricing for BoJ moves
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/25.
Market data
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