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    1. On the Minds of Investors

    On the Minds of Investors

    Drawing on the depth and breadth of their market and economic expertise, our global macro strategists offer insight into today's big investment themes to enable more confident portfolio decisions.

    Decorative

    You asked, we answer. On the Minds of Investors tackles the big questions we hear in our conversations with clients – it’s our latest thinking on the issues that matter to you.

    Tai Hui

    Chief Market Strategist, Asia Pacific

    The outlook for Asian electronics and internet platforms

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the current situation and development of Asian technology sector with investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    The 60/40 Reloaded

    This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views on enhancing the 60/40 portfolio in today's market environment with investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    Is an earnings recession in the U.S. imminent?

    ​This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views regarding the earnings recession in the U.S. and path of inflation with investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    China’s economy: a gradual recovery in 2H 2022

    ​This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the prospects and views regarding the gradual recovery of China's economy and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    Investors should not lose sight on sustainability as a long-term investment theme

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the sustainability as a long-term investment theme and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    A few thoughts on fixed income

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the fixed income as a portfolio component to prepare for slower growth and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

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    How are higher rates impacting private markets?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, describes the situation of private markets under the prospect of higher rates, higher inflation and a slower growth outlook with investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    Gauging U.S. economic recession risk

    While investors will inevitably be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy this week, one question on the back of everyone’s mind would be the risk of a recession in the U.S. (4-minute read)

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    What should I know about quantitative tightening?

    Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.

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    Rising inflation in Asia and central banks’ response

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses inflation and central bank policy in Asia, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    China stimulus measures: what have been introduced and what is the next key catalyst

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the current China's COVID situation and future policy with its investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    Should I time the bottom in today’s market?

    Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.

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    Are bonds attractive?

    The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.

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    1Q22 U.S. earnings and current market volatility

    A re-rating of valuations has led to negative equity returns year-to-date, but importantly, earnings estimates have continued to trend higher. In an environment of rising rates, earnings will be the key driver of returns. (4-minute read)

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    Are we in or headed towards a recession?

    The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

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    How do investors navigate market volatility?

    The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.

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    Looking beyond the recent volatility

    This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, addresses the current volatility in global equity markets and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    When will Chinese supply chain pressures ease?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the current Chinese supply chain under the impact of the COVID-19 wave and Chinese policy, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

    Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.

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    Pressure on the yen and the yuan

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the driving forces behind recent depreciation pressure in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, and what this means for investors. (4-minute read)

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    Growth pressure and policy easing in China

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the weakened Chinese economic data in March, and the subsequent policy and investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    Has the sell-off created an opportunity in growth stocks?

    2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic—as well as over the prior cycle—under pressure. (4-minute read)

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    Should investors hedge the currency when investing in international equities?

    Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.

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    Is market timing worth it during periods of intense volatility?

    2022 will likely remain volatile for equity markets, as central banks normalize alongside persistently hot-inflation and geopolitical issues result in prolonged uncertainty.

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    Should investors be worried about Asia’s food inflation?

    This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, looks at how food inflation is impacting Asian economies and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)

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    Piecing together the rate mosaic

    This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Jordan Jackson, discusses our expectations for U.S. interest rates and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)

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    Where can I find uncorrelated sources of income?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses how alternatives and core real assets can help investors increase diversification in their portfolios and generate uncorrelated sources of income. (4-minute read)

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    RMB (Remember) the longer-term structural support to Chinese Yuan resilience

    This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our long term views on the Chinese Yuan and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    Things to watch out for that would reinforce confidence in Chinese equities

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the latest development in China's policies, and what investors should look out for going forward. (4-minute read)

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    COVID-19 resurgence weighs on Chinese economy and market

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the market and economic impact of the latest COVID-19 wave in China. (4-minute read)

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    The glide path to lower inflation

    This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, discusses the key drivers within the transitory and sticky components of inflation and presents our thoughts around their paths lower. (6-minute read)

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    How should investors position for a yield curve inversion?

    An inverted yield curve driven by short rates rising more than long-term yields has preceded every US recession since 1960 and is therefore a closely watched metric among investors regarding the outlook for the economy and markets.

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    Will surging energy prices create stagflation?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks at how recent events have impacted stagflation impulses in different regions, and the implications for investors. (6-minute read)

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    Answers to the key investor questions on the Russia/Ukraine conflict

    As the events in Ukraine continue to unfold, this note seeks to answer the economic and market questions from investors around the world. (6-minute read)

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    A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

    A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

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    NPC preview: stronger policy support to be expected

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses our expectations for the outcome of China's National People's Congress meeting and the investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    How would international equities perform during a U.S. boom-bust recession?

    In both a U.S. led boom-bust recession and global synchronous growth, international equities could outperform, suggesting a key role for the asset class in portfolio construction.

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    Chain Reaction

    This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, looks at our deep-dive analysis into the forward-looking demand, supply chain issues, inflation and their investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever

    The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.

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    Elevated oil prices could stay for a while

    Geopolitical tension in Europe, strong demand recovery and weak supply growth are all contributing to higher oil prices. (4-minute read)

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    4Q21 U.S. earnings update

    Fourth quarter earnings are off to a solid start and the more cyclical sectors are leading the charge. (4-minute read)

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    Protecting against inflation: Part 3 – Protecting your capital

    Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.

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    What to expect in China from the Year of the Tiger?

    2021 was a year of steady reform introduction by Chinese authorities, focused on the long-term goals of improving the quality of growth and on addressing non-economic priorities like inequality, leverage, and decarbonization.

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    The short road to tighter policy

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Jordan Jackson, looks at the outcome of the January FOMC meeting and implications for different asset classes. (8-minute read)

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    Protecting against inflation: Part 2 – The labour market is key

    Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.

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    Protecting against inflation: Part 1 - Storm in the ports

    Inflation is standing at record levels across many markets. Explore our framework for tracking the impact of supply chain disruption on inflation in 2022.

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    What higher U.S. rates mean for markets

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks at the potential path of U.S. rate hikes and implications for different asset classes (6-minute read)

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    Amid weakening data, policy easing to be expected in China

    This paper, written by Tai Hui and Zhu Chaoping, looks at recently released 4Q21 China economics data, inducing more monetary and fiscal stimulus, and the investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    Too Hawkish Too Fast?

    This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the recent turn to hawkishness in developed market central bank policies and its investment implications.

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    Too Hawkish Too Fast?

    This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the recent turn to hawkishness in developed market central bank policies and its investment implications.

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    What were the takeaways from China’s Central Economic Work Conference?

    This paper, written by Zhu Chaoping, discusses China's recent Central Economic Work Conference and its investment implications.

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    Why does Japan deserve Asian investors’ attention?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent developments in Japan market, and several fundamental reasons that investors should pay attention to the investment opportunities it could potentially bring.

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    How should Asian investors react to the Omicron variant?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential impact of the Omicron variant and the investment implications for investors.

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    Will the COVID-19 resurgence derail global recovery?

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Kerry Craig, discusses the impact of the recent COVID-19 resurgence in China and other regions, and what it means for investors.

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    COP26: Not a failure, not a success

    COP26 saw significant announcements in areas such as coal, methane and deforestation, yet progress fell short of the scale required to give us confidence that disruptive climate outcomes can be avoided. Physical climate risks warrant careful consideration for long-term investors.

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    Where do we stand on infrastructure spending?

    From our vantage point, it seems like a given that the President will sign the bipartisan bill into law. Looking at the budget reconciliation package, a deal will get done but it may come down to the wire.

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    U.S. 3Q21 earnings: Supply pains

    Despite a slowdown in 3Q21 economic growth, corporate profits have been better than expected. Investors should use profits as a guide, as rising interest rates could pressure multiples and leave earnings as the main driver of returns.

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    What is the likelihood of a central bank policy mistake?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Ian Hui and Gareth Lam, discusses whether or not the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are hiking rates too slow or too fast, and what it means for investors.

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    Could the Fed turn more hawkish on monetary policy?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential path of Fed monetary policy and the investment implications for investors.

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    What are the implications from China’s 3Q 2021 GDP data?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui and Zhu Chaoping, discusses the investment implications of the newly released 3Q21 GDP data of China.

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    Are we entering a period of stagflation?

    Stagflation has become a hotly debated topic among investors as inflation expectations rise and growth expectations fall. This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses our views on the topic and what it means to investors.

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    Getting ahead of COP26 and what it means for investors

    Discover why COP26 is important for investors. Explore the potential investment implications that could come with new climate objectives and commitments.

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    What is the market impact from elections in Germany and Japan?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the market impact of the elections in the third and fourth largest economy in the world, and what this means for investors.

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    How to navigate the three challenges in China?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the major challenges faced by China equity and fixed income market, and their investment implications.

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    The implications for investors of the German election

    Germans head to the polls later this month to elect a new government. With the race to replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor still uncertain, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler sets out the policy agenda of the main parties, considers the most likely coalition scenarios, and looks at how the election may impact the outlook for the German economy and markets.

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    What could trigger a market correction?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the possible triggers for a U.S. market correction, and what this means for investors.

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    Will disappointing payrolls derail the taper?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the recently released U.S. payroll statistics and potential impact on the possibility and path of the U.S. QE tapering policy rollout.

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    On the Minds of Investors_20191114

    Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    On the Minds of Investors_20191010

    Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    On the Minds of Investors_20191024

    Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    On the Minds of Investors_20190912

    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    On the Minds of Investors_20190905

    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

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    On the Minds of Investors_20190530

    What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?

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    On the Minds of Investors_20190523

    What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?

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    On the Minds of Investors_20190514

    What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?

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    On the Minds of Investors_20190425

    What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?

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    Should investor cheer Brexit progress and trade agreement?

    October 15, 2019

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    Should we be worried about Chinese growth?

    October 24, 2019

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    Will a general election in the UK solve the Brexit impasse?

    October 30, 2019

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    Should investors be optimistic on U.S.-China trade negotiations?

    November 7, 2019

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    Should we be concerned about the rising inflation in China?

    November 14, 2019

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    What to expect from the 2020 U.S. elections?

    November 21, 2019

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    How are Asian exports faring lately?

    November 28, 2019

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    Are the latest improvement in manufacturing PMIs a sign of recovery?

    December 5, 2019

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    What is the Federal Reserve’s plan for 2020?

    December 12, 2019

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    Should investors still worry about U.S.-China trade?

    December 19, 2019

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    Is the U.S.-China trade war over?

    January 16, 2020

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    Should investors worry about inflation?

    January 23, 2020

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    What are the investment implications from the coronavirus outbreak? 

    On the Minds of Investors - January 29, 2020

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    What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?

    February 5, 2020

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    Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks? 

    February 11, 2020

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    What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?

    February 19, 2020

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    Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?

    February 25, 2020

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    Equity markets fall into correction

    February 28, 2020

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    Monetary Medicine of Limited Effectiveness

    March 4, 2020

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    How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?

    March 4, 2020

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    What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

    March 9, 2020

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    Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?

    March 16, 2020

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    The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability

    March 24, 2020

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    China set to advance stimulus efforts

    March 31, 2020

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    Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?

    April 7, 2020

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    How vulnerable are emerging markets?

    April 16, 2020

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    Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?

    April 21, 2020

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    Are U.S. equity valuations sustainable?

    April 28, 2020

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    What are some of the long-term structural changes from the COVID-19 pandemic?

    May 5, 2020

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    What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?

    May 12, 2020

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    What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?

    May 19, 2020

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    Does re-opening mean re-orienting equities?

    May 28, 2020

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    Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now

    While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.

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    Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?

    June 2, 2020

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    Is it Europe’s time to shine?

    June 10, 2020

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    Should investors be concerned with another round of risk aversion?

    June 16, 2020

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    Could we see another round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S.? 

    July 8, 2020

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    Why should investors consider Sustainable Investing?

    Due to COVID-19 and the discussions around social issues and climate change, Sustainable Investing (SI) is more relevant today than ever before.

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    Our views on the current A-share rally

    July 14, 2020

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    Is the Fed reducing liquidity?

    July 21, 2020

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    Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?

    A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.

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    Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.

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    What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.

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    What are the implications from the latest review of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the recent discussion between the U.S. and China regarding the Phase One trade agreement.

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    What does the Fed’s latest change in monetary policy framework mean for Asian investors?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent statement by the Federal Reserve and its implications on global markets.

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    Can the market bounce back?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the longer-term outlook for equities following the recent sell-off of tech and growth stocks.

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    Why should I invest in equities when they are already so expensive?

    This paper, written by Tai, Hui, discusses the positive outlook on global equities despite high valuations.

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    What is the latest progress of China's economic recovery?

    This paper, written by Tai, Hui and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following recent economic data releases.

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    What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

    This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell's decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.

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    Are Chinese authorities worried about the Chinese yuan's strength?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese yuan following its recent strong performance.

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    China’s recovery on track

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the latest Chinese GDP data and recovering economy with its investment implications.

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    What should investors do, given the latest surge in COVID-19 in Europe and the U.S.?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rebound in COVID-19 cases and their implications on global markets.

    Read more

    Election 2020: Results and consequences

    This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Meera Pandit, provides the latest update on the U.S. presidential election and its investment implications.

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    Was the 3Q earnings season really that great?

    This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the 3Q 2020 U.S. earnings results and the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic.

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    What does the end of the Fed’s credit facilities mean?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the ending of various Federal Reserve credit facilities in a time of lower fiscal support and weaker economic activity.

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    What are the implications of rising corporate bond defaults in China?

    This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.

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    Should investors worry about inflation?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on central bank policies to address inflation concerns heading into 2021.

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    What could upset a happy New Year?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the key market risks heading into 2021.

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    Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.

    Read more

    Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.

    Read more

    What are President Biden’s policy priorities?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.

    Read more

    How should Asian investors handle the current bout of market volatility?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the latest market volatility and its investment implications.

    Read more

    U.S. 4Q20 earnings season

    This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Ian Hui, discusses our views on the U.S. 4Q20 earnings season so far and its investment implications.

    Read more

    Why and how to re-think the 60:40 portfolio

    The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.

    Read more

    Are Asian central banks turning hawkish?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the near-term possibility that Asian central banks could look to normalize their monetary policy, and what this means for investors.

    Read more

    How would QE tapering impact on investment?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, compares the 2014 tapering with what is happening with U.S. monetary policy now, and what this means for investors.

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    U.S. 2Q21 earnings

    While it may be tempting to chase recent performance, we continue to anticipate that the second half will see interest rates move higher, repricing more in-line with the above-trend pace of economic activity that currently characterizes our forecasts. This should be supportive of cyclical assets broadly, and allow value to outperform growth.

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    When will we finally see a market correction?

    At the end of last week, it looked like the equity market pullback that everyone had been expecting was finally beginning to materialize.

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    Will the Fed cause inflation?

    The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.

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    How will COVID-19 affect Sustainable Bonds?

    covid 19 affect sustainable bonds

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