On the Minds of Investors

You asked, we answer. On the Minds of Investors tackles the big questions we hear in our conversations with clients – it’s our latest thinking on the issues that matter to you.

Tai Hui

Chief Market Strategist, Asia Pacific

The outlook for Asian electronics and internet platforms

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the current situation and development of Asian technology sector with investment implications. (4-minute read)

The 60/40 Reloaded

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views on enhancing the 60/40 portfolio in today's market environment with investment implications. (4-minute read)

Is an earnings recession in the U.S. imminent?

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views regarding the earnings recession in the U.S. and path of inflation with investment implications. (4-minute read)

China’s economy: a gradual recovery in 2H 2022

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the prospects and views regarding the gradual recovery of China's economy and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Investors should not lose sight on sustainability as a long-term investment theme

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the sustainability as a long-term investment theme and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

A few thoughts on fixed income

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the fixed income as a portfolio component to prepare for slower growth and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

How are higher rates impacting private markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, describes the situation of private markets under the prospect of higher rates, higher inflation and a slower growth outlook with investment implications. (4-minute read)

Gauging U.S. economic recession risk

While investors will inevitably be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy this week, one question on the back of everyone’s mind would be the risk of a recession in the U.S. (4-minute read)

What should I know about quantitative tightening?

Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.

Rising inflation in Asia and central banks’ response

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses inflation and central bank policy in Asia, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

China stimulus measures: what have been introduced and what is the next key catalyst

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the current China's COVID situation and future policy with its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Should I time the bottom in today’s market?

Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.

Are bonds attractive?

The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.

1Q22 U.S. earnings and current market volatility

A re-rating of valuations has led to negative equity returns year-to-date, but importantly, earnings estimates have continued to trend higher. In an environment of rising rates, earnings will be the key driver of returns. (4-minute read)

Are we in or headed towards a recession?

The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

How do investors navigate market volatility?

The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.

Looking beyond the recent volatility

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, addresses the current volatility in global equity markets and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

When will Chinese supply chain pressures ease?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the current Chinese supply chain under the impact of the COVID-19 wave and Chinese policy, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.

Pressure on the yen and the yuan

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the driving forces behind recent depreciation pressure in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, and what this means for investors. (4-minute read)

Growth pressure and policy easing in China

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the weakened Chinese economic data in March, and the subsequent policy and investment implications. (4-minute read)

Has the sell-off created an opportunity in growth stocks?

2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic—as well as over the prior cycle—under pressure. (4-minute read)

Should investors hedge the currency when investing in international equities?

Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.

Is market timing worth it during periods of intense volatility?

2022 will likely remain volatile for equity markets, as central banks normalize alongside persistently hot-inflation and geopolitical issues result in prolonged uncertainty.

Should investors be worried about Asia’s food inflation?

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, looks at how food inflation is impacting Asian economies and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)

Piecing together the rate mosaic

This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Jordan Jackson, discusses our expectations for U.S. interest rates and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)

Where can I find uncorrelated sources of income?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses how alternatives and core real assets can help investors increase diversification in their portfolios and generate uncorrelated sources of income. (4-minute read)

RMB (Remember) the longer-term structural support to Chinese Yuan resilience

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our long term views on the Chinese Yuan and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Things to watch out for that would reinforce confidence in Chinese equities

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the latest development in China's policies, and what investors should look out for going forward. (4-minute read)

COVID-19 resurgence weighs on Chinese economy and market

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the market and economic impact of the latest COVID-19 wave in China. (4-minute read)

The glide path to lower inflation

This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, discusses the key drivers within the transitory and sticky components of inflation and presents our thoughts around their paths lower. (6-minute read)

How should investors position for a yield curve inversion?

An inverted yield curve driven by short rates rising more than long-term yields has preceded every US recession since 1960 and is therefore a closely watched metric among investors regarding the outlook for the economy and markets.

Will surging energy prices create stagflation?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks at how recent events have impacted stagflation impulses in different regions, and the implications for investors. (6-minute read)

Answers to the key investor questions on the Russia/Ukraine conflict

As the events in Ukraine continue to unfold, this note seeks to answer the economic and market questions from investors around the world. (6-minute read)

A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

NPC preview: stronger policy support to be expected

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses our expectations for the outcome of China's National People's Congress meeting and the investment implications. (4-minute read)

How would international equities perform during a U.S. boom-bust recession?

In both a U.S. led boom-bust recession and global synchronous growth, international equities could outperform, suggesting a key role for the asset class in portfolio construction.

Chain Reaction

This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, looks at our deep-dive analysis into the forward-looking demand, supply chain issues, inflation and their investment implications. (4-minute read)

COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever

The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.

Elevated oil prices could stay for a while

Geopolitical tension in Europe, strong demand recovery and weak supply growth are all contributing to higher oil prices. (4-minute read)

4Q21 U.S. earnings update

Fourth quarter earnings are off to a solid start and the more cyclical sectors are leading the charge. (4-minute read)

Protecting against inflation: Part 3 – Protecting your capital

Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.

What to expect in China from the Year of the Tiger?

2021 was a year of steady reform introduction by Chinese authorities, focused on the long-term goals of improving the quality of growth and on addressing non-economic priorities like inequality, leverage, and decarbonization.

The short road to tighter policy

This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Jordan Jackson, looks at the outcome of the January FOMC meeting and implications for different asset classes. (8-minute read)

Protecting against inflation: Part 2 – The labour market is key

Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.

Protecting against inflation: Part 1 - Storm in the ports

Inflation is standing at record levels across many markets. Explore our framework for tracking the impact of supply chain disruption on inflation in 2022.

What higher U.S. rates mean for markets

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks at the potential path of U.S. rate hikes and implications for different asset classes (6-minute read)

Amid weakening data, policy easing to be expected in China

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Zhu Chaoping, looks at recently released 4Q21 China economics data, inducing more monetary and fiscal stimulus, and the investment implications. (4-minute read)

Too Hawkish Too Fast?

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the recent turn to hawkishness in developed market central bank policies and its investment implications.

Too Hawkish Too Fast?

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the recent turn to hawkishness in developed market central bank policies and its investment implications.

What were the takeaways from China’s Central Economic Work Conference?

This paper, written by Zhu Chaoping, discusses China's recent Central Economic Work Conference and its investment implications.

Why does Japan deserve Asian investors’ attention?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent developments in Japan market, and several fundamental reasons that investors should pay attention to the investment opportunities it could potentially bring.

How should Asian investors react to the Omicron variant?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential impact of the Omicron variant and the investment implications for investors.

Will the COVID-19 resurgence derail global recovery?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Kerry Craig, discusses the impact of the recent COVID-19 resurgence in China and other regions, and what it means for investors.

COP26: Not a failure, not a success

COP26 saw significant announcements in areas such as coal, methane and deforestation, yet progress fell short of the scale required to give us confidence that disruptive climate outcomes can be avoided. Physical climate risks warrant careful consideration for long-term investors.

Where do we stand on infrastructure spending?

From our vantage point, it seems like a given that the President will sign the bipartisan bill into law. Looking at the budget reconciliation package, a deal will get done but it may come down to the wire.

U.S. 3Q21 earnings: Supply pains

Despite a slowdown in 3Q21 economic growth, corporate profits have been better than expected. Investors should use profits as a guide, as rising interest rates could pressure multiples and leave earnings as the main driver of returns.

What is the likelihood of a central bank policy mistake?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Ian Hui and Gareth Lam, discusses whether or not the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are hiking rates too slow or too fast, and what it means for investors.

Could the Fed turn more hawkish on monetary policy?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential path of Fed monetary policy and the investment implications for investors.

What are the implications from China’s 3Q 2021 GDP data?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Zhu Chaoping, discusses the investment implications of the newly released 3Q21 GDP data of China.

Are we entering a period of stagflation?

Stagflation has become a hotly debated topic among investors as inflation expectations rise and growth expectations fall. This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses our views on the topic and what it means to investors.

Getting ahead of COP26 and what it means for investors

Discover why COP26 is important for investors. Explore the potential investment implications that could come with new climate objectives and commitments.

What is the market impact from elections in Germany and Japan?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the market impact of the elections in the third and fourth largest economy in the world, and what this means for investors.

How to navigate the three challenges in China?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the major challenges faced by China equity and fixed income market, and their investment implications.

The implications for investors of the German election

Germans head to the polls later this month to elect a new government. With the race to replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor still uncertain, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler sets out the policy agenda of the main parties, considers the most likely coalition scenarios, and looks at how the election may impact the outlook for the German economy and markets.

What could trigger a market correction?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the possible triggers for a U.S. market correction, and what this means for investors.

Will disappointing payrolls derail the taper?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the recently released U.S. payroll statistics and potential impact on the possibility and path of the U.S. QE tapering policy rollout.

On the Minds of Investors_20191114

Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

On the Minds of Investors_20191010

Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

On the Minds of Investors_20191024

Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.