Weekly Market Recap
Asia Pacific
13/09/2021
Week in review
- China trade balance rose more than expected to USD 58.3bn
- The ECB kept monetary policy rate unchanged at 0.0%
- China CPI rose 0.8% y/y
Week ahead
- U.S. CPI, industrial production, retail sales
- South Korea unemployment rate
- Eurozone trade balance
Thought of the week
Just as schoolkids are tempering their excitement levels for the return to school, investors should also start to build in their expectations for the return to a slow but steady economic expansion. Following months of generally strong economic data, recent figures have been less robust. U.S. consumer confidence dropped in August to a six-month low due to concerns over the Delta variant surge and the supply-driven inflation. Meanwhile, the August jobs report was a disappointment, showing an addition of just 235,000 non-farm payroll jobs, reflecting a lack of labor supply. Going forward, we expect consumer confidence to revive as the latest pandemic wave wanes and reopening continues, while the tight labor supply might continue for the next few years due to demographic issues. Overall, this recent weakness does not affect our monetary policy expectations, and we still expect the tapering plan to be announced in November, while the first rate hike is expected by the end of 2022.
U.S. consumer confidence
Indexed to 100 at 28/09/84