Market Bulletins

Hawkish moves and hawkish guidance

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds rate by 0.75% to a range of 3.00%-3.25%. (3-mins read)

Who will ride out the DM turbulence best?

Recession warnings from the U.S. and Europe threaten to derail Asian economies’ nascent recovery, mainly through a drag on export demand.

Understanding U.S. recessions

This paper addresses the characteristics of U.S. recessions, the economic and market indicators that would help to identify the threat of recessions with its investment implications.

A commitment to data dependency suggests a less hawkish Fed going forward

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds rate by 0.75% to a range of 2.25%-2.50%. (3-mins read)

The Rocky Road to Normal: A 2022 Mid-Year Review

Learn more about the investment outlook for the second half of 2022 and how investors should position themselves through a challenging recovery and rising inflation.

More hawkish Fed raises recession risks

The message from the committee is clear, the Fed will expeditiously raise interest rates given it is “strongly committed” to tame inflation. (3-mins read)

More tightening and more guidance from the Fed

As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by 0.50% to 0.75%-1.00% and signaled similar 50 basis point rate increases would be on the table for the next couple of meetings. (3-mins read)

The Fed loses patience with inflation

For the first time since December 2018, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by a ¼ percent to 0.25%-0.50% and made it clear further increases would be appropriate to tame inflation. (3-mins read)

Russia-Ukraine Chart Pack

The Russia-Ukraine Chart Pack aims to help investors understand the investment implications of the current situation in Russia and Ukraine holistically and why it is important to stay invested

Why Asia ex-Japan Equities Deserve a Second Look – Part II

The second paper of this two-part series written by Clara Cheong takes a deeper dive into the year-to-date performance, valuations, reasonableness of the earnings outlook for Asia ex-Japan equities and the investment implications. (9-mins read)

Why Asia ex-Japan Equities Deserve a Second Look – Part I

In this first part of a two-part paper written by Clara Cheong, we explore the common push-backs to investing in Asia ex-Japan and broader emerging market equities as we enter a monetary tightening regime in the U.S. (9-mins read)

The Hiking Roadmap

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, explores what happened in the macroeconomic landscape during previous rate hiking cycles of the 70s, 80s and 90s and explain why risk assets generally delivered positive returns across Fed rate hiking cycles. (9-mins read)

Higher prices and improving labor participation, support tighter policy

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, discusses the FOMC's December meeting announcement.

October CPI Report: Inflation still surging

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, discusses the October CPI report and what it means for investors.

October Jobs Report: Labor market recovery gets back on track

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, discusses the October jobs report and what it means for investors.

Focus on taper, not rates for now

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the FOMC's November meeting and their tapering plans.

China’s path to policy normalization

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the potential path for China’s policy normalization after the country’s economy recovered from COVID-19.

What are the implications of the Brexit deal for the economy and markets?

It is hard to remember a time when Brexit was not dominating British headlines, but at the midnight hour, UK and EU negotiators finally reached agreement on a new trade deal. This piece addresses the key questions surrounding the deal: what is covered, how does it impact the outlook for the UK economy, and what are the market implications?

Northeast and Southeast Asia paving the way to prosperity

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the recovery of various Asian economies from the COVID-19 pandemic and discusses the near-term and longer-term regional outlook.

Rebalancing for high-quality growth: What to expect from China’s new five-year plan

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, gives our prospects about China’s upcoming 14th five-year plan. To be approved in October and implemented during 2021 to 2025, this plan will have profound impacts to Chinese economy and financial market.

A commitment to easy money

This paper, written by David Kelly, addresses the FOMC's September meeting announcement.

Introducing our Asia COVID-19 tracker

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Yeo, provides a framework for comparing the policy responses and risks faced by Asian economies from the pandemic.

China’s 2Q GDP and June economic data improve on post-COVID rebound

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the rebound in Chinese economic activity and its implications for investors.

Enhance yields with Chinese bonds in the zero interest rate era

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Chaoping Zhu, looks at the attractiveness of the Chinese bond market in the current global environment.

The European Central Bank levels up its stimulus efforts

Today’s actions from the European Central Bank (ECB) were at the upper end of market expectations.

The Fed’s balance sheet: To infinity and beyond

To frame the balance sheet discussion, we consider the impact to real GDP, employment and inflation under each recovery scenario.

The European Central Bank aims to ‘thread the needle’

This paper, written by Jai Malhi, examines the European Central Bank meeting outcome and its investment implications.

Monetary Medicine until the Patient is on the Mend

This paper addresses the FOMC's April meeting announcement.

The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market

This paper, written by Tillman Galler and Kerry Craig, discusses the latest movements in the oil markets amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.

1Q20 earnings: Virus oddity

This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Tyler Voigt, reviews the 1Q 2020 U.S. earnings results and the significant volatility that has taken place.

Chinese GDP in Recession amid Virus Outbreak

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discussed the performance and outlook of Chinese economy, policies amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.

The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.

A COVID-driven spike in claims

This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Meera Pandit, reviews the surge in U.S. initial claims for unemployment and its investment implications.

What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?

This paper, written by David Lebovitz, Alex Dryden, and Jack Manley, reviews the latest U.S. Fed increased liquidity actions and its investment implications.

The investment implications of COVID-19: March 17 update

This paper written by Dr. David Kelly updates the latest on the coronavirus impact to global markets.

The investment implications of COVID-19

This paper, written by David Kelly, provides an update on the investment implications of COVID-19.

UK monetary and fiscal stimulus – Unprecedented shock, unprecedented response

This paper, written by Karen Ward, highlights the recent rate cut by the Bank of England and its investment implications.

Cash: it’s what you do with it that matters

This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Tyler Voigt, highlights the short-term and long-term uses of corporate cash investors could take advantage of within their portfolios.

The Investment Implications of the 2020 Election

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, Hannah Anderson and Meera Pandit, addresses the upcoming U.S. election and its investment implications.

4Q19 Earnings: Lots of moving parts

This paper, written by David M. Lebovitz and Tyler J. Voigt, reviews 4Q19 U.S. earnings with performance of various sectors and its investment implications.

Cyclical tailwinds vs. secular headwinds in Asia ex-Japan equities

This paper, written by Dr. Jasslyn Yeo, explains why cyclical tailwinds support a positive stance for Asia ex-Japan equities this year, and why persisting secular headwinds mean that the investment case for Asia ex-Japan growth stocks remains strong.

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