Fast zwei Jahre nach Ausbruch der Pandemie geht die globale Konjunkturerholung stark voran. Dennoch werden politische Interventionen eine langfristige Wirkung haben. Anleger müssen weiter in die Ferne blicken, um Vermögensrenditen zu erzielen – sowohl geografisch als auch über die öffentlichen Märkte hinaus.
Eine animierte Anleitung zu LTCMA
00.00: Long – Term Capital Market Assumptions. Time – tested projections to build stronger portfolios.
00.12: Amid today’s challenging investing environment
00.16: Investors and advisers need long – term insights and projections they can trust
00.18: For 26 years, investment professionals have trusted the long-term capital markets assumptions that inform J.P. Morgan’s investment decisions as a tool to build stronger portfolios.
00.29: Our research is drawn from experts across J.P. Morgan Asset Management
00:32 and used by J.P. Morgan professionals
00.36: to inform investment decisions in our Multi – Asset Solutions portfolios
00.39: From key findings to detailed matrices, the LTCMA report gets you straight to the information you need.
00. 45: Executive Summary
00.45: Thematic articles exploring global trends
00.45: Asset class return estimates
00.45: Detailed assumptions matrices
00.51: For an at a glance overview, the executive summary paints the…
00.51...broad picture of asset returns over a 10 -15 year investment horizon.
00.53: Year – on – year shifts
00.55: Thematic trends
00.57: Notable asset return assumptions
1:01: Inflation and growth projections
1:04: Thematic articles provide in-depth insight into the big picture themes shaping long-term global returns.
1.08: What are the choices and trade-offs in ESG investing?
1:13 China’s asset markets: Too big to ignore or too hot to handle?
1:18 Do cryptocurrencies have a role in long-term portfolios?
1:23 The why of alternatives is clear, but where is the guidance on how?
1.27 Asset class return estimates
1:33 Long-term capital market assumptions provide return and volatility estimates to support portfolio investment decisions across markets and asset classes.
1:35 Currency
1:36 Fixed Income
1:37 Equities
1:38 Alternative Strategies
1:39 Volatility & Correlation
1:42 Detailed assumptions matrices
1:46 And assumptions matrices support strategic asset allocation through carefully calibrated estimates in multiple currencies.
2:00 By sharing our best thinking on the forces and assumptions driving long-term assets, LTCMA empowers you to look ahead with confidence.
2:00 The LTCMA report is a key component of our wider Portfolio Insights program.
2:00 Portfolio Insights Program
2:01 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions
2:02 Quarterly Global Views
2:03 Timely/Topical/Tactical Views
2:04 Portfolio Analytics Service
2:05 Tailored client training
2:07: Our Portfolio Insights helps guide your portfolio decisions through timely commentary, strategic perspectives and in-depth analysis.
2:16 However you choose to use the LTCMA and Portfolio Insights program there is insightful information to help support your investment decisions.
NOT FOR RETAIL DISTRIBUTION: This communication has been prepared exclusively for institutional/wholesale/professional clients and qualified investors only as defined by local laws and regulations.
JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. “Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example, changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control. The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https://am.jpmorgan.com/global/privacy. This communication is issued by the following entities: In the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission; in Latin America, for intended recipients’ use only, by local J.P. Morgan entities, as the case may be; in Canada, for institutional clients’ use only, by JPMorgan Asset Management (Canada) Inc., which is a registered Portfolio Manager and Exempt Market Dealer in all Canadian provinces and territories except the Yukon and is also registered as an Investment Fund Manager in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. In the United Kingdom, by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; in other European jurisdictions, by JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l. In Asia Pacific (“APAC”), by the following issuing entities and in the respective jurisdictions in which they are primarily regulated: JPMorgan Asset Management (Asia Pacific) Limited, or JPMorgan Funds (Asia) Limited, or JPMorgan Asset Management Real Assets (Asia) Limited, each of which is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong; JPMorgan Asset Management (Singapore) Limited (Co. Reg. No. 197601586K), this advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore; JPMorgan Asset Management (Taiwan) Limited; JPMorgan Asset Management (Japan) Limited, which is a member of the Investment Trusts Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and the Japan Securities Dealers Association and is regulated by the Financial Services Agency (registration number “Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firm) No. 330”); in Australia, to wholesale clients only as defined in section 761A and 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Commonwealth), by JPMorgan Asset Management (Australia) Limited (ABN 55143832080) (AFSL 376919).
For U.S. only: If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.
Copyright 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
WEITERE INSIGHTS
JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Angesichts der Komplexität der hiermit verbundenen Chancen-Risiko-Abwägungen empfehlen wir unseren Kunden, sich bei der Festlegung der strategischen Allokationen sowohl auf ihr Urteilsvermögen als auch auf quantitative Optimierungsansätze zu verlassen. Bitte beachten Sie, dass alle dargestellten Informationen auf qualitativen Analysen beruhen. Ein ausschließlicher Verlass hierauf wird nicht empfohlen. Diese Informationen sind nicht als Empfehlung zur Anlage in einer bestimmten Anlageklasse oder Strategie oder als Versprechen für die zukünftige Wertentwicklung gedacht. Bitte beachten Sie, dass die Annahmen zu Anlageklassen und Strategien nur passiv sind – sie berücksichtigen nicht die Auswirkungen einer aktiven Verwaltung. Bezugnahmen auf zukünftige Renditen sind keine Versprechungen oder gar Schätzungen der tatsächlichen Renditen, die ein Kundenportfolio erzielen könnte. Annahmen, Meinungen und Schätzungen dienen lediglich der Veranschaulichung. Sie sollten nicht als Empfehlungen für den Kauf oder Verkauf von Wertpapieren herangezogen werden. Prognosen über Finanzmarkttrends, die auf aktuellen Marktbedingungen beruhen, stellen unsere Einschätzung dar und können sich ohne Vorankündigung ändern. Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen sind unseres Erachtens zuverlässig. Wir übernehmen jedoch keine Gewähr für deren Richtigkeit oder Vollständigkeit.
Die in diesem Dokument geäußerten Meinungen stellen weder eine Beratung noch eine Empfehlung für den Kauf oder Verkauf von Anlageinstrumenten dar, noch sichert J.P. Morgan Asset Management oder eine seiner Tochtergesellschaften zu, sich an einer der in diesem Dokument erwähnten Transaktionen zu beteiligen. Sämtliche Prognosen, Zahlen, Einschätzungen oder Anlagetechniken und -strategien dienen nur Informationszwecken, basierend auf bestimmten Annahmen und aktuellen Marktbedingungen, und können jederzeit ohne vorherige Ankündigung geändert werden. Alle in diesem Dokument gegebenen Informationen werden zum Zeitpunkt der Erstellung als korrekt erachtet. Jede Gewährleistung für ihre Richtigkeit und jede Haftung für Fehler oder Auslassungen wird jedoch abgelehnt. Zur Bewertung der Anlageaussichten bestimmter in diesem Dokument erwähnter Wertpapiere oder Produkte sollten Sie sich nicht auf dieses Dokument stützen. Darüber hinaus sollten Investoren eine unabhängige Beurteilung der rechtlichen, regulatorischen, steuerlichen, Kredit- und Buchhaltungsfragen anstellen und zusammen mit ihren professionellen Beratern bestimmen, ob eines der in diesem Dokument genannten Wertpapiere oder Produkte für ihre persönlichen Zwecke geeignet ist. Investoren sollten sicherstellen, dass sie vor einer Investitionen alle verfügbaren relevanten Informationen erhalten. Der Wert, Preis und die Rendite von Anlagen können Schwankungen unterliegen, die u. a. auf den jeweiligen Marktbedingungen und Steuerabkommen beruhen, und die Anleger erhalten das investierte Kapital unter Umständen nicht in vollem Umfang zurück. Sowohl die historische Wertentwicklung als auch die historische Rendite sind unter Umständen kein verlässlicher Indikator für die aktuelle und zukünftige Wertentwicklung.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management ist der Markenname für das Vermögensverwaltungsgeschäft von JPMorgan Chase & Co. und seiner verbundenen Unternehmen weltweit. Telefonanrufe bei J.P. Morgan Asset Management können aus rechtlichen Gründen sowie zu Schulungs- und Sicherheitszwecken aufgezeichnet werden. Soweit gesetzlich erlaubt, werden Informationen und Daten aus der Korrespondenz mit Ihnen in Übereinstimmung mit der EMEA-Datenschutzrichtlinie von J.P. Morgan Asset Management erfasst, gespeichert und verarbeitet. Die EMEA-Datenschutzrichtlinie finden Sie auf folgender Website: www.jpmorgan.com/emea-privacy-policy.
Herausgeber in Deutschland: JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l., Frankfurt Branch Taunustor 1 D-60310 Frankfurt am Main. Herausgeber in Österreich: JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l., Austrian Branch, Führichgasse 8, A-1010 Wien.