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          Guide to the Markets

          Comprehensive insights on all the latest global economic and market developments.

          Explore the Guide 

           

          Weekly Market Recap
          New Australia 28 - 09 - 2026
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          Our flagship Insights

          Guide to the Markets

          The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

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          Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

          Discover J.P. Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, drawing on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide.

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          Guide to Alternatives

          Get insights on macro topics such as manager dispersion, while also diving into real estate, private credit, private equity and hedge funds and more.

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          Market Commentary

          Fed on the move

          The Fed leans hawkish with inflation still above target. Read the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting now.

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          Why are AI labs raising red flags regarding AI safety?

          AI labs are calling for a slowdown in model development, raising new questions for capex, adoption, and portfolio resilience—see what’s driving the discussion.

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          More positives in support of European equities gaining momentum

          European equities gain momentum as earnings, margins, and sector participation improve, with infrastructure and energy themes driving new opportunities—see what’s fueling the shift.

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          Singapore’s Three-Legged Equity Case: Stability, Earnings Growth, Income

          Singapore equities are supported by policy credibility and resilient growth, offering a steadier market backdrop alongside income potential—read the key takeaways.

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          Will aging portfolios change the private equity opportunity?

          Private equity exits are rising in value but remain concentrated in select deals, with aging portfolios shaping risks and opportunities—see what’s next for investors.

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          2Q26 Asia Equity Earnings: AI and Non-AI drivers

          Asia equity earnings show broadening momentum as artificial intelligence and other drivers support participation amid shifting rates—read the highlights.

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          Japan Reflation Meets Normalization: Yen, Yields, and the Equity Appeal

          Japan’s reflation and policy normalization are reshaping the yen, yields, and equity backdrop—see what could affect your portfolios.

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          Can equity markets digest higher bond yields?

          Equities may handle rising bond yields until moves turn disorderly—explore how yield pace, real rates, and market composition can shape risk and returns.

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          2Q26 U.S. Earnings update: Promising young adopters

          Read the key insights on how rising U.S. earnings and AI and energy themes may shape markets going forward.

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          Why should investors consider alternative investments in portfolios now?

          Diversification in public markets has become challenging, making alternatives like private equity and infrastructure key diversifiers and inflation resilient return drivers—Explore more on Alternatives.

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          Gold's fall and the obstacles in the way back to the peak

          Gold’s pullback reflects shifting rates, dollar strength, and cooling demand, shaping how it diversifies portfolios and volatility ahead. Explore what to watch next.

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          AI: The new bond giant

          AI-driven bond issuance is reshaping credit markets, benchmarks, and risk exposures as hyperscalers fund infrastructure with debt—see what this means for portfolios.

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          China 2Q26 GDP: Growth slowdown strengthens the case for policy support

          China’s growth is cooling as exports and high-tech manufacturing hold up, sharpening focus on policy support and domestic demand—read the latest investor takeaways.

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          Cuts to Caution: What easing energy prices mean for monetary policy

          Easing oil prices reshape inflation fears and central-bank paths, affecting rates, bonds, and equities amid geopolitical risk—read the key takeaways.

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          India: Strong economy, but weak equity market

          India’s macro strength contrasts with lagging equities amid currency, inflation, and earnings worries—see why investors are cautious and what could rebuild confidence.

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          Are U.S. small-cap equities better positioned than they appear?

          Are U.S. small caps better positioned than they look as earnings revisions improve, rate risks evolve, and AI-led demand broadens? Read the key takeaways.

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          Implications of U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

          A U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could ease global risk yet keep energy costs elevated—learn what this means for the markets.

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          How could mega-cap IPOs affect markets?

          Mega-cap IPOs can reshape market liquidity and near-term volatility as capital shifts and index rules evolve—learn what to watch.

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          China – Can AI help drive an equity turnaround?

          China equities trail as AI reshapes winners, earnings momentum, and risk premiums—see what could drive a turnaround across platforms, hardware, and policy follow-through.

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          AI Investing: Broadening Opportunity and the Monetization Test

          AI enthusiasm is widening beyond headline winners as compute buildouts strain cash flows and raise concentration risk—see where monetization, infrastructure, and adopters shape the next phase.

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          The three bond problem: Positioning in fixed income

          Rising bond yields amid inflation, oil shocks, and fiscal concerns are changing fixed-income tradeoffs—learn what this means for portfolios today.

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          1Q26 Asian earnings: Can tech sustain this rally?

          Asian earnings season spotlights whether tech-led gains can endure as AI demand reshapes supply chains, capex, and valuation narratives—read the takeaways now.

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          1Q26 U.S. Earnings update: Chipenomics

          Strong earnings and AI-led investment are reshaping sectors from banks to chips—see what is driving momentum and where adoption matters most.

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          What if oil hits USD 150?

          Oil supply disruption can reshape inflation, growth, and asset performance—see what market history suggests and what to watch next.

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          Inflation spillovers from the Middle East

          Middle East supply disruptions can ripple into global inflation through energy, shipping, and agriculture inputs, shaping prices and growth expectations—learn what to watch next.

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          How are central banks handling the threat of stagflation?

          Central banks weigh inflation shocks and slowing growth amid conflict and tariffs, shaping rates and bond curves with ripple effects for portfolios and planning; learn what to watch next.

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          What are semi-liquid funds?

          Semi-liquid funds expand access to private markets but can restrict withdrawals during stress. Explore how the liquidity trade-offs and fund structures can impact you.

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          Asian central banks: Diverging on the balancing paths

          Asian central banks may diverge as energy shocks and currency weakness shift inflation and growth tradeoffs, reshaping rate expectations and market pricing across the region—read the key takeaways.

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          Between Resilience and Rebalancing: What China's 1Q 2026 GDP Data Really Tells Us

          China’s latest GDP growth signals resilience amid rebalancing, with exports strong and domestic demand softer, shaping the global outlook for markets and policy—read the key takeaways.

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          What is the latest trend in private credit?

          Private credit faces scrutiny on defaults, liquidity, and software exposure, but recent fund reports show steady credit quality and returns versus public high yield—read the latest trend.

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          Are Value stocks staging a comeback in 2026?

          Market volatility, supportive policies and sector rotation are driving Value stocks’ comeback—explore the latest insights now.

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          Addressing market concerns over an extended energy disruption

          Strait of Hormuz and Middle East routes bottlenecks elevate energy costs and stagflation risks in Asia, as central banks likely hold rates and volatility persists—Dive in and see the implications for investors.

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          When nobody knows, do nothing

          Fed holds as March FOMC meeting highlights inflation trends and uncertainties. Read on for the latest policy pulse and what to watch next.

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          Will AI disruption alter the outlook for private equity?

          AI adds volatility to public markets, but private equity's long‑term case strengthens amid lower funding costs and a pick-up in deal activity.

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          FAQs on U.S.-Iran conflict

          Explore what the U.S.-Iran conflict means for oil prices, Asia's growth and inflation outlook, and the opportunities in Asian equities and real assets.

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          A pragmatic shift toward high-quality growth: Key takeaways from the Chinese NPC annual session

          Explore the shift in China NPC's 2026 priorities to high quality growth, with focus on demand and tech, while property stimulus remains muted.

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          U.S. and Israel strike Iran: Where do we go from here?

          Explore the potential scenarios and near-term market risks that could arise from the U.S. and Israel's strike on Iran.

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          U.S. airstrikes on Iran: Immediate reaction on oil, economy and markets

          Explore the key takeaways for oil and global markets amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, and the investment implications.

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          Trade Turbulence (Part 10): How does the U.S. tariff reset shape winners and losers in the APAC region?

          Explore the investment implications and opportunities in Asian equities as the U.S. tariff reset shapes winners and losers in APAC.

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          The U.S. Supreme Court rules against reciprocal tariffs

          The U.S. equity market was fairly muted after the SCOTUS ruling that U.S. President Trump exceeded his authority by using the IEEPA to impose "reciprocal" tariffs globally.

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          Evaluating AI

          Explore key factors influencing AI investment and its monetization, and the tech stock trends and strategies for navigating the evolving AI market.

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          4Q25 U.S. earnings update

          Mega-cap tech stocks, S&P 500 growth, and Gen-Z & Millennial spending trends are shaping the market outlook and sector performance.

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          What is different about this commodity cycle?

          Explore the divergence between metals and energy prices in modern markets, what drives commodity volatility, and how investors can hedge risks with smart asset allocation.

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          The Federal Reserve – New Leadership, Same Landscape

          Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 signals a potential shift in U.S. monetary policy, with implications for interest rates, inflation, and financial markets.

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          Why carry is king even as spreads tighten

          Corporate bond yields remain attractive despite tight spreads and elevated risks, with income driving returns and active selection key amid full valuations and robust fundamentals.

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          Is robotics the next frontier for AI?

          Explore how robotics is emerging as the next frontier for AI in 2026, shifting market focus from model creators to infrastructure and real-world applications. Discover the technological breakthroughs, economic trends, commercialization challenges and investment opportunities shaping the future of AI-powered robots.

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          Export resilience despite domestic challenges: Key takeaways from China’s data release

          Regulators are fostering a sustainable uptrend in China’s stock market, anchored by rising insurance premiums and reforms, with balanced growth and high-dividend strategies to help manage volatility in 2026.

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          Looking at opportunities outside U.S. mega-cap tech

          This paper discusses how developments within the tech sector could spill over to other sectors as AI adoption broadens over time.

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          Is the U.S. finished with cutting rates?

          This paper discusses the possibility of further Fed rate cuts in 2026, and the investment implications.

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          Unlocking value in Singapore’s evolving equity market

          This paper discusses the factors that could drive Singapore equities as a compelling investment opportunity within Asian equity allocations.

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          Asian earnings update: Third quarter’s the charm?

          This paper discusses the factors surrounding Asian equities' robust 3Q25 earnings results, and the investment strategy ahead.

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          What are stablecoins?

          This paper discusses the use cases for stablecoins, the key risks surrounding stablecoin transactions, and the investment implications.

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          Why Asian bonds now: Capturing value in USD-denominated EM credit

          This paper discusses the case for Asian credit on the back of investment-grade corporates showing strong fundamentals and high-yield credit with lower default risk.

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          3Q25 U.S. earnings update

          This paper discusses the impact of the tech sector and AI in driving the 3Q 2025 earnings season in the U.S., and the investment implications.

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          Energy Infrastructure: AI’s power play

          This paper discusses the interplay between energy demand and AI data centers, energy supply and current constraints, and the investment implications.

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          Could recent defaults signal potential trouble in private credit?

          This paper discusses the recent defaults in the auto sector, and the potential implications for private credit.

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          Path to a high-quality and more balanced growth: What to expect from China’s 15th Five-Year Plan

          This paper discusses the key takeaways from the 4th Plenum of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee, and the investment implications.

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          Do circular AI deals warn of a bubble?

          This paper explores how overlapping partnerships among hyperscalers, chipmakers and model developers are reshaping AI markets with robust fundamentals.

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          Which interest rates will fall as the Fed cuts?

          This paper discusses why the yield curve could steepen further with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, and the investment implications.

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          Takaichi’s LDP election win and the policy implications

          This paper discusses the potential policy implications of Sanae Takaichi’s election win amid concerns over fiscal deterioration and rising inflation in Japan.

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          Trade turbulence (Part 9): Finding silver linings for ASEAN economies

          This paper discusses why ASEAN equities can act as effective diversifiers in investors’ Asian equity portfolios in light of uncertain U.S. trade policies.

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          Central bankers are not rushing into things

          This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.

          Read more

          Featured Portfolio Insights

          Global Asset Allocation Views 3Q 2026

          Against a backdrop of resilient growth and a fading energy shock, we reaffirm our positive view on risk assets. In equities we favor the U.S., Japan and emerging markets. We overweight U.S. high yield and are neutral on U.S. Treasuries. Given downside risks to growth in Europe, we are long European duration.

          Learn more

          Factor Views 3Q 2026

          Factors extended gains in Q2, on average, led by equity momentum. We maintain a positive outlook for factors overall: Equity value and equity quality are historically inexpensive; equity momentum could climb, with heightened risk. We recommend diversification among and across factors more than ever.

          Learn more

          Global Fixed Income Views 4Q 2026

          Evidence of central banks’ independence and inflation fighting credibility, solid economic data and corporate profits, robust capex and resilient consumers lift the likelihood of expansion to 85%, overpowering headwinds from inflation and pushback against AI.

          Learn more

          Emerging Market Debt Quarterly Strategy

          Our quarterly EMD strategy report assesses the latest economic developments in emerging markets and sets out our base case scenario for the asset class.

          Learn more

          Global Equity Views 3Q 2026

          Massive AI investment spending is driving exceptional profit growth. Markets have moved mostly in line with earnings and valuations don’t look excessive. We find long-term value among the so-called “AI losers” and in many defensive stocks far from the AI boom.

          Learn more
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