How to navigate the three challenges in China?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the major challenges faced by China equity and fixed income market, and their investment implications.
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MARKET COMMENTARY
The implications for investors of the German election
Germans head to the polls later this month to elect a new government. With the race to replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor still uncertain, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler sets out the policy agenda of the main parties, considers the most likely coalition scenarios, and looks at how the election may impact the outlook for the German economy and markets.
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What could trigger a market correction?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the possible triggers for a U.S. market correction, and what this means for investors.
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Will disappointing payrolls derail the taper?
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the recently released U.S. payroll statistics and potential impact on the possibility and path of the U.S. QE tapering policy rollout.
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Are Asian central banks turning hawkish?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the near-term possibility that Asian central banks could look to normalize their monetary policy, and what this means for investors.
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How would QE tapering impact on investment?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, compares the 2014 tapering with what is happening with U.S. monetary policy now, and what this means for investors.
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U.S. 2Q21 earnings
While it may be tempting to chase recent performance, we continue to anticipate that the second half will see interest rates move higher, repricing more in-line with the above-trend pace of economic activity that currently characterizes our forecasts. This should be supportive of cyclical assets broadly, and allow value to outperform growth.
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Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world
Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.
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Not growth, not value, but income
This paper, written by Ian Hui, discusses the importance of income generation in the face of uncertainty and volatility.
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What now for Chinese equities?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the economic policy insights provided by the recent Politburo meeting, and what this means for investors.
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Four reasons why investors should not underestimate the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund
Explore how the fiscal stimulus provided by the EU's pandemic recovery fund could lead to stronger economic growth and boost demand for European assets.
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How should investors view the recent Chinese equity sell-off?
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the Chinese new reforms and the subsequent selling pressure in Chinese equities, and what this means for investors.
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Value is back, but growth is not out
Will this year’s value rally continue, or are growth stocks set to regain the initiative? In our latest On the Minds of Investors article, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler examines the basic drivers of value outperformance, and looks at how value stocks may perform in three near-term economic scenarios based on our latest projections.
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More inflation pressure from energy prices?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses how the outlook for energy prices will shape the inflation outlook going forward, and what this means for investors.
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Normalizing growth and fine-tuning policy
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, breaks down China's 2Q 2021 GDP data, and what this means for investors and Chinese policies going forward.
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Why are bond yields so low?
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the confluence of both fundamental and technical factors that has led to a decline in government bond yields despite a still-robust outlook for growth, and what this means for investors.
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Is a more hawkish Federal Reserve bullish for the USD?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses what the future path of the USD could look like given a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, and what this means for investors.
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What are the latest inflation data telling us?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses what investors should make of the strong recent inflation data, and what it means for their investments.
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What happens past the peak in growth?
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses what investors should expect after the recent slew of robust economic data, and what it means for investors.
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What has been going on with cryptocurrencies?
Regardless of one’s personal view, digital assets and cryptocurrencies are becoming an increasingly large part of the global financial system. As such, more and more investors are asking how they should think about them as both investments and currencies.
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The implications of carbon pricing initiatives for investors
Could carbon prices be about to rise? Global market strategist Vincent Juvyns looks at the increasing regulatory pressures on carbon pricing, and assesses the potential impact on markets
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What’s driving the Chinese yuan stronger and what’s next?
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the driving forces behind the recent Chinese yuan rally and what this means for investors.
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What does the latest wave of outbreak in Asia mean for Asian equities?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the latest wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Asia and vaccination progress with its investment implications to Asian equities.
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1Q21 U.S. earnings season
This paper, written by Ian Hui, highlights the outlook of 2021 U.S. earnings and its investment implications.
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What role should European equities play in asset allocation?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses why Asian investors may want to look to European equities to provide return-generating potential and diversification benefits to their core equities allocation.
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What will higher U.S. taxes mean for the market?
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, addresses the recent announcement of U.S. tax increase proposal and its investment implications.
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How to protect against the inflation risk?
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses how investing in core real assets can help investors hedge the risk of inflation while still creating income.
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What does 1Q 2021 Chinese GDP mean for policy and investment?
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Chaoping Zhu, breaks down the 1Q 2021 Chinese GDP figures and discusses how this would impact China's fiscal and monetary policies, and subsequently, Chinese investments.
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Happy Earth Day!
Over the last 12 months, the global pandemic has shaken our lives in many ways. While good health and social interactions are probably top of mind for most of us, the environment and climate are also among our key concerns.
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What is the inflation risk?
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the inflation outlook in the U.S. and around the world in the coming months and years, and what this means for investors.
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Asia's decade: Getting ahead of the growth opportunity
Rapidly rising incomes in vast populations are set to make Asia the largest contributor to global growth in the 2020s. For investors, the opportunity looks too big to ignore.
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Can international stocks provide a hedge against rising inflation?
Inflation has been a hot topic amongst investors. Globally, inflation is expected to rise this year from 2020’s low levels. This reflation, a sign that the economy is operating above potential, should lead to strong earnings growth as well
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How will the Fed’s decision on the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) impact markets?
For better or for worse, banks are required to meet various liquidity and leverage requirements. One ratio that measures a bank’s ability to absorb losses is the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). The SLR formula measures tier 1 capital, which consists mostly of common and preferred stock, as a percent of total leverage exposure.
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Chinese equities market correction—why and what is next?
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses the drivers behind the recent Chinese equities market correction, and how investors should prepare for what comes next.
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Are emerging markets vulnerable to the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the impacts of rising U.S. Treasury yields and stronger U.S. dollar on different emerging markets asset classes.
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The case for ESG integration when investing in EM
Explore the strategies that can help investors maintain income and diversification in a post-Covid world of low interest rates and negative government bond yields.
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The impact of ESG factors on portfolio returns
History provides only a limited guide to the implications of ESG factors for returns. We look at the conclusions that can be drawn from the past, and how investors can prepare for the future.
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Are commodities entering a supercycle?
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Gareth Lam, discusses the factors driving the recent jump in commodity prices, and whether they are entering a supercycle.
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A preview of China National People’s Congress
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides our forecast of what will be discussed and announced in China's National People's Congress on March 5, as well as its implications for investors investing in China.
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Inflation worries and the rise in government bond yields
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rise in government bond yields on the back of market expectations of economic recovery in the U.S., upcoming fiscal stimulus and the prospects of high inflation, as well as its implications for different asset classes.
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A fresh flock of doves
A fresh flock of doves
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What does Biden's presidency mean for the global climate agenda?
Joe Biden’s presidency is expected to bring increased momentum on tackling climate change. Carbon intensity is likely to become an increasingly important metric in investment decisions.
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When will the vaccines allow for a sustained economic recovery?
Successful vaccine rollout should drive an economic rebound as pent-up spending is unleashed. We assess the timings and market implications.
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Why and how to re-think the 60:40 portfolio
The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.
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U.S. 4Q20 earnings season
This paper, written by David M. Lebovitz and Ian Hui, discusses our views on the U.S. 4Q20 earnings season so far and its investment implications.
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How should Asian investors handle the current bout of market volatility?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the latest market volatility and its investment implications.
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What are President Biden’s policy priorities?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.
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Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.
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What could upset a happy New Year?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the key market risks heading into 2021.
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Should investors worry about inflation?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on central bank policies to address inflation concerns heading into 2021.
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What does the end of the Fed’s credit facilities mean?
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the ending of various Federal Reserve credit facilities in a time of lower fiscal support and weaker economic activity.
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Was the 3Q earnings season really that great?
Thsi paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the 3Q 2020 U.S. earnings results and the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Where still offers value and could continue to benefit if a vaccine is approved?
A Covid-19 vaccine could be a game changer for the global economy and markets. Global Market Strategist, Mike Bell highlights three areas that could continue to benefit should a vaccine be approved.
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Election 2020: Results and consequences
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Meera Pandit, provides the latest update on the U.S. presidential election and its investment implications.
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How should investors consider the impact of climate change on their portfolios?
This paper, written by Vincent Juvyns, looks at how investors can manage climate-related risks in their portfolios, while also driving real change.
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What should investors do, given the latest surge in COVID-19 in Europe and the U.S.?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rebound in COVID-19 cases and their implications on global markets.
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China’s recovery on track
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the latest Chinese GDP data and recovering economy with its investment implications.
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Are Chinese authorities worried about the Chinese yuan's strength?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese yuan following its recent strong performance.
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What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?
This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.
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What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.
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Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.
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Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?
A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.
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Could we see another round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S.?
China’s stock markets have been experiencing a strong rally since last week, and the upward momentum seems to be building further.
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Is it Europe’s time to shine?
Is it Europe’s time to shine?
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Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?
June 2, 2020
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Will the Fed cause inflation?
The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.
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How will COVID-19 affect Sustainable Bonds?
Global governments have been swift and bold in supporting their economies, building a bridge to get consumers, small businesses and corporates over the present abyss to the other side. Given the unknown breadth and depth of the abyss, more stimulus may be required.
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Has all EM behaved the same way this year?
Year-to-date, emerging market (EM) equities are down -17.6%, as a combination of the COVID-19 recession and the oil price shock has led to downward revisions to earnings expectations, as well as weaker currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.
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Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now
While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.
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What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.
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What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.
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COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever
The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.
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What are some of the long-term structural changes from the COVID-19 pandemic?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an analysis of the potential long-term investment implications from COVID-19.
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Are U.S. equity valuations sustainable?
April 28, 2020
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Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?
Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control.
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The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market
Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.
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How vulnerable are emerging markets?
Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.
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Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?
Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia
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China set to advance stimulus efforts
As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.
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A COVID-driven spike in claims
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.
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The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.
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What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.
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The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability
In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.
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Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
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What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?
It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.
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How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?
Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.
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Equity markets fall into correction
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.
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Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?
The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.
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What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020
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Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks?
The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.
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What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?
China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.
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Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.
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What are the implications of rising corporate bond defaults in China?
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.
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Is the U.S.-China trade war over?
Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.
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Should investors still worry about US-China trade?
The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.
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