Could we see another round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S.?
July 8, 2020
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MARKET COMMENTARY
Why should investors consider Sustainable Investing?
Due to COVID-19 and the discussions around social issues and climate change, Sustainable Investing (SI) is more relevant today than ever before.
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When it comes to fixed income, do you like high yield?
One of the best trades to put on in the aftermath of the financial crisis was going long high yield. Spreads blew out to nearly 18% in November 2008, implying a default rate of almost 30%. Looking back, this is far from what actually materialized, as default rates on U.S. high yield peaked at a level of 11% in November of the following year. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) becoming increasingly active in credit markets, we have been getting more and more questions on the outlook for high yield; the bottom line is that while valuations are not terribly compelling, the near-term path for credit spreads may be tighter.
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Will investing in European equities ever pay off?
Over the past 15 years, investors have been frustrated with the performance of European equities.
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When will we finally see a market correction?
At the end of last week, it looked like the equity market pullback that everyone had been expecting was finally beginning to materialize.
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Should investors be concerned with another round of risk aversion?
Should investors be concerned with another round of risk aversion?
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Why are people talking about Brexit risks...again?
Brexit risk is not a thing of the past. As the 11-month transition period progresses, look out for the negotiations to become a source of heightened volatility.
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Is it Europe’s time to shine?
Is it Europe’s time to shine?
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Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?
June 2, 2020
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Will the Fed cause inflation?
The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.
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How will COVID-19 affect Sustainable Bonds?
Global governments have been swift and bold in supporting their economies, building a bridge to get consumers, small businesses and corporates over the present abyss to the other side. Given the unknown breadth and depth of the abyss, more stimulus may be required.
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Has all EM behaved the same way this year?
Year-to-date, emerging market (EM) equities are down -17.6%, as a combination of the COVID-19 recession and the oil price shock has led to downward revisions to earnings expectations, as well as weaker currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.
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Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now
While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.
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What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.
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What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.
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COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever
The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.
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What are some of the long-term structural changes from the COVID-19 pandemic?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an analysis of the potential long-term investment implications from COVID-19.
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Are U.S. equity valuations sustainable?
April 28, 2020
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Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?
Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control.
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The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market
Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.
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How vulnerable are emerging markets?
Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.
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Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?
Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia
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China set to advance stimulus efforts
As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.
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A COVID-driven spike in claims
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.
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The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.
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What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.
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The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability
In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.
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Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
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What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?
It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.
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How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?
Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.
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Equity markets fall into correction
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.
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Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?
The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.
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What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020
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Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks?
The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.
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What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?
China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.
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Should investors worry about inflation?
Investors are now asking whether inflation could return, threatening the rally in financial markets.
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Is the U.S.-China trade war over?
Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.
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Should investors still worry about US-China trade?
The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.
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