Commentary, strategic perspectives and in-depth analysis from our investment teams to help guide your portfolio decisions.
The main driver of asset returns likely transitions from liquidity to growth in 2021. We maintain a pro-risk tilt, prefer cyclical equities, are neutral on U.S. large caps and in credit favor EM debt. We move duration from underweight to neutral.
Above Trend Growth remains our base case as vaccinations start and global reopening begins. Inflation is a risk but we think it would be short term. Our preferences include emerging market local bonds, investment grade bank credit, high yield bonds.
While the opportunity to invest at depressed prices is largely gone, we see a good chance of better relative returns from a wider range of stocks. Look for opportunities outside the usual suspects that have dominated returns for a decade.
Factor performance was mixed, on balance, over the quarter with many factors following their recent trajectories. Fundamental factors generally underperformed; merger arbitrage had a strong quarter.