A deep-dive on U.S. money market fund reform
Learn more about the key dates, deadlines, and intricacies pertaining to U.S. money market fund reform.
Tools and resources necessary to help make informed investment decisions and build stronger portfolios
Learn more about the key dates, deadlines, and intricacies pertaining to U.S. money market fund reform.
Global Head of Product Strategy, Paul Przybylski, provides commentary on what you need to know regarding Money Market Fund Reform this year.
With US inflation finally trending downwards, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has pivoted to a more dovish bias, although the timing and extent of future rate cuts remains uncertain. Across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, inflation is also declining, raising the prospect of lower regional interest rates. However, the impact will likely be more variable due to country-specific nuances.
With Q1 '24 underway, Kyongsoo Noh answers the top five questions on the minds of liquidity investors.
At its first monetary policy meeting of 2024, the RBA left its OCR unchanged at 4.35%. The decision was in-line with market expectations, although the tone of the accompanying statement was more hawkish than expected.
The BoE held the Bank Rate steady at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive meeting but removed their bias towards the next move being another hike in rates. Notably, the decision was not unanimous as two members continued to vote for a 25 basis point (bp) hike, while one member voted for a 25bp cut leaving six members, including the Governor voting for unchanged rates.
On 29th January, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) decided to maintain the prevailing rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band, with no change to its width nor centre point.
At its first monetary policy meeting of the year on 25 January 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all key interest rates on hold. This was the third consecutive meeting to conclude with no change to monetary policy, with the last rate hike occurring in September 2023.
BOE voted to maintain Bank rate at 5.25% (6:3 split for hike) again. The Panel maintained its guidance that rates would need to be “sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long” to curb inflation.
At its monetary policy meeting on 14th December 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all key interest rates on hold, for a second consecutive meeting. The ECB announced that reinvestments of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), will decrease by 50% from July 2024. President Lagarde stated that the Governing Council (GC), will not let its guard down, in the fight against inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds target range unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as anticipated. However, the quarterly update for the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested a dovish bias, with the “dots” pointing towards three cuts for next year, with a rate at the end of 2024 of 4.50-4.75%. The market reacted by increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2024, pricing in cuts more aggressively than the Fed.
At their last monetary policy meeting of the year on 5 December, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%. This was in line with market expectations.
Market attention has veered towards other policy options that are at the disposal of the ECB’s Governing Council (GC). One such option, the remuneration of Minimum Reserve Requirements (MRR), has recently come under particular focus. While not widely understood, adjustments to this rate could have significant implications for short term interest rates and liquidity demand.
At its monetary policy meeting on the 7 November, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to raise the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to a 12-year high of 4.35%. The rate hike, which follows a five-month hiatus was widely anticipated by economists following stronger than expected economic data.
At its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the BoE voted to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%. The BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey noted that inflation has fallen, and is expected to fall further this year and next year, while monetary policy is viewed as restrictive.
At its monetary policy meeting on 26 October 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all key interest rates on hold, the first pause after 10 consecutive rate rises.
At its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on 13 October, the MAS decided to maintain its prevailing monetary policy stance Fig 1a for a second meeting - following five previous upward adjustments. The decision was In-line with expectations, with the central bank leaving the slope, band width, and mid-point of SGD NEER unchanged.
At Michele Bullock’s first monetary policy meeting as the Governor, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10%. This was the fourth pause in the central bank’s rate hiking cycle.
The FOMC unanimously decided to make no changes to the 5.25%-5.50% federal funds target range. Interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) rate were also left unchanged at 5.40% and 5.30%, respectively
The rise in interest rates over the last two years has been dramatic. UK interest rates have risen at the sharpest pace since the 1980s, while rates in Europe have rapidly increased from negative territory to the highest level since the inception of the euro. Evidently, this sharp rise in rates is good news for corporate treasurers.
At its September 2023 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained Bank Rate at 5.25% in a split 5-4 decision, while unanimously deciding to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £100 billion over the next twelve months.
At its monetary policy meeting on 14 September 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) tightened monetary policy further, increasing key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).
For the past three decades, the property sector has been a key driver of Chinese economic growth. While the recent property downturn in China has created challenges for the banks’ operating environment, the banks’ credit profiles likely remain resilient in the future.
On 14 September 2023, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a broad based 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) rate cut. The timing and the shortness of the notice period was unexpected.
At Governor Lowe’s last monetary policy meeting as head of the RBA, the bank decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10%. This was widely expected by economists following slightly softer economic data and a recent decline in monthly inflation.
On 15 August 2023, the People’s Bank of China cut its 1-year Medium Term Lending Facility by 0.15% to 2.50% and its 7-day open market operation repo rate by 10bps to 1.80%.
On August 1, 2023 Fitch downgraded the United States of America’s long-term credit rating one notch, from AAA to AA+.
The Bank of England (BoE) opted to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25%, as a recent cooling in both inflation and the economic outlook allowed it to moderate the magnitude of its hike from the 50bps delivered in June.
At its monetary policy meeting on 1 August 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged for a second month. This follows a cumulative 400bps of rate hikes over the previous fifteen months, which has taken base rates to a decade high of 4.10%.
At its monetary policy meeting on 27 July 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) tightened monetary policy further, increasing key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to raise interest rates 25bps. The new target range is 5.25%-5.50%—the highest level in more than 22 years—yet we may not have reached the peak.
As the world’s largest provider of institutional money market funds, J.P. Morgan Asset Management welcomes the new amendments to rules governing money market funds (MMFs) announced by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on July 12.
At its monetary policy meeting on the 4th of July, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the overnight cash rate unchanged at 4.10%. This represents the second pause in the central bank’s current hiking cycle.
The Bank of England (BoE) raised Bank Rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.00% as recent upside in data indicated more persistent inflationary pressures and justified a 13th consecutive increase.
The FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.00%-5.25%. The interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) rate were also left unchanged at 5.15% and 5.05%, respectively.
At its 15 June 2023 monetary policy meeting, the ECB increased all three key interest rates by 25bps, bringing the refinancing rate to 4.00%, the marginal lending facility to 4.25% and the deposit facility rate to 3.50%.
In a widely anticipated move, the Peoples Bank of China cut its 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility by 10bps to 2.65% on the 15th of June. The action follows a 7-day Repo cut and a Standing Lending Facility rate cut last week and highlights the central bank’s decisively dovish pivot as the authorities seek to stabilize China’s faltering economic recovery.
At its 13th June Open Market Operation, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its 7-day Reverse Repo Rate by 10bps to 1.90%. The repo rate is a key tool used by the central bank to ensure adequate market liquidity, this also represents the first repo rate cut since August 2022.
At its 6 of June Monetary Policy Meeting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to a new cycle high of 4.10%. The rate hike surprised investors, who were expecting additional rate hikes following the RBA’s hawkish pivot at its May Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting but remained uncertain as to the exact timing of any RBA action.
Since February this year, the Hong Kong Dollar (HK$) has hit the weak side of its convertibility versus the US Dollar (US$) on multiple occasions. This has necessitated ongoing foreign exchange intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to support the HK$.
Christopher Tufts, Global Head of Liquidity Strategies discusses the impact of a technical default.
The Bank of England (BoE) raised the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50% in a split 7-2 vote as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) believes persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labour market justified a twelfth consecutive increase.
At its 4th of May monetary policy meeting, the ECB increased all three key interest rates by 25bps, bringing the refinancing rate to 3.75%, the marginal lending facility to 4.00% and the deposit facility rate to 3.25%.
The U.S. federal government reached its debt limit - Commonly called the “debt ceiling”, the debt limit is the maximum amount of debt that the U.S. Department of the Treasury can issue to the public or to other federal agencies.
At its monetary policy meeting on May 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market by hiking its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%. Justifying its abrupt volte-face, the central bank said “inflation… is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range”.
Following its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on April 14, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its prevailing monetary policy unchanged – including the slope, width and center-point of the band – unchanged. This represents the central bank’s first pause since it began tightening its policy in October 2021.
On 4 April, the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%. This represents the first pause by a major central bank and follows a cumulative 350bps of hikes over the past ten consecutive meetings.
The FOMC maintained its firm stance against inflation by raising interest rates 25bps to 4.75%-5.00%, despite heightened financial stability risk. Interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight reverse repo rate (RRP) were also increased by equivalent amounts to 4.9% and 4.8%, respectively.
At its March 2023 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.25%, the highest level since November 2008. The increase was largely expected by the market despite recent global financial market volatility.
On Friday 17th March, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a broad-based 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) rate cut, releasing additional liquidity into the banking system and reducing commercial bank funding costs.
The European Central Bank (ECB) acted on February’s forward guidance by increasing key interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), despite current market volatility.
At its monetary policy meeting on the 7th of March, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to an eleven-year high of 3.60%. The rate hike was widely anticipated following last month’s hawkish pivot.
The HKMA intervened to defend the peg and purchased HKD 19bn on February 14-15. This has reduced its aggregate balance to HKD 77bn, the lowest level in almost three years.
At its first monetary policy meeting of 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.35%. The move represents the ninth consecutive hike in the current cycle, and the accompanying statement was more hawkish than expected.
The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations to a 15-year high of 3.00%. In the accompanying statement and subsequent press conference, the ECB maintained its hawkish tone, signalled an intention to increase rates by a further 50 bps in March.
The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 4.00% in a split 7-2 vote as a tight labour market and continued domestic wage and price pressures justified a tenth consecutive increase.
On Friday 25 November, the People’s Bank of China announced a 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio cut. In the accompanying statement, the PBoC confirmed the RRR cut was part of a package of measures to support economic growth.
The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 2.25% in a split 5-3-1 vote as the tight labour market, higher wages and higher domestic inflation justified a seventh consecutive hike.
On August 15, the People’s Bank of China announced a MLF rate cut of 10bps to 2.75%. Although small in size, the rate cut confirms the PBOC’s desire to jump-start the economy and sends an important monetary policy signal with significant implications for interest rates and RMB cash investors.
On July 27, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its Federal Funds Rate target range by 75 basis points (bps) to 2.25% - 2.50%. There were no dissenters.
On 15-16 March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its two-day meeting and raised its federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.25%-0.5%, with one dissenting member calling for a 50bps increase.
At their latest semi-annual policy meeting, the MAS' comments was modestly upbeat and the central bank revised up their headline inflation target - both of which could have implications for SGD cash investments.
Electravision. The predominant vision for the future involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. This vision primarily relies upon the greater efficiency of electric motors and heat pumps vs their fossil fuel counterparts. While the grid is getting greener, electrification is advancing at a much slower pace for reasons related to chemistry, physics, cost, politics and human behavior. Our 14th annual energy paper takes a closer look, and also includes sections on nuclear power, China, hydrogen, “net zero oil” and Gaza’s energy future.
Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.
This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.
An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.
Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer with real time data as a function of infection levels and state policy. Additional topics: no evidence yet of material second waves of COVID infection, and a round-up of the latest news on vaccine trials (Moderna, Oxford, Sinovac) and anticoagulants.
Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.
A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit
Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets
A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.
I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.
Global Resilience to higher rates
The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs
Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.
Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while
Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post
Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.
Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.
One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.
US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot
The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.
The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.
A discussion of the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX and three rules for investors: the Gensler Rule, the Sirens Rule and the Summers Rule. Our 2023 Outlook will be released as usual on January 1st.
A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.
My list of things I am thankful for this year: CH4, HR4346 and mRNA-1273. Of course, your mileage may vary.
Three reruns for investors. First, in almost every post-war bear market, equity declines preceded the fall in earnings, growth and employment. As a result, we’re more focused on changes in manufacturing surveys than on the other victims of a recession as a sign of the bottom. Second, Graham Allison’s rising power conflict analysis and its historical precedents come back into focus with the latest US policies cutting off high performance semiconductor exports to China. Third, another press article on a small country as a prototype for a renewable future that does not address its irrelevance for larger developed or developing economies.
Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.
Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.
The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. A close look at some very anomalous charts on shipping, semiconductors, inventories, labor shortages, foreclosures and mortality.
Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology BI66 “The Origins of COVID” has been cancelled until further notice.
Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.
COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.
The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
The US recovery; The flood of money and market returns; Globalization lives; Reducing COVID mortality through vascular treatments; Realistic timetables for never-been-done before vaccines; Sweden’s COVID experiment is not what you think
In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.
In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.
Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet?
In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.
After the equity rally, P/E multiples are back at around 16x 2021 consensus earnings.
Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.
There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.
There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.
A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.
Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?
A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors.
Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.
After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.
How a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.
While recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists.
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.
Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers and discusses the challenges they face.
A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.
It was a long, hot summer at the Heritage Foundation. An update from the front lines of the Trade War.
Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
The US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election.
Topics: unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal; overview of the world’s decarbonization challenges; Germany’s energy transition; Trump’s War on Science.
For investors looking to diversify concentration to U.S. tech names or to lean into underappreciated AI opportunities, Asian high-quality technology stocks could provide an attractive opportunity set.
Despite causing some short-term profit taking, gradual Yen strength can be digested by equities. Japan finally deserves to retake its place as a strategic allocation in global equity portfolios.
The financial future for women looks promising, but for individual investors, a strong financial plan will be key in seizing the opportunity.
After a significant pricing reset, private real estate could be on the verge of a rebound due to a few key drivers.
With monetary policy still at the forefront of the macro landscape in 2024, investors are left wondering how the election might influence Fed policymakers.
Investors should recognize that the challenging backdrop presents an opportunity for alpha generation, both through traditional security selection and through active tax management
For over a year, investors have been hyper-focused on the performance of just seven U.S. companies, nicknamed the “Magnificent 7”*, and rightfully so, given their outsized returns, earnings growth, and long-term tailwinds.
Over the last 30 years, cash has been unable to keep up with the creep of inflation. By contrast, other investments have been much better places to park capital.
Presidential candidates will be campaigning on various policy proposals throughout the year, but one policy item that must be addressed during the next administration is whether to sunset or extend tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
The S&P 500 has reached a new milestone: crossing 5000. It is up 5.4% year-to-date, compared to the equal weight S&P 500, up just 0.7%.
While recession risks in the US have receded, geopolitical risk, election risk and restrictive monetary policy all threaten the current rally.
As the Year of the Dragon is about to begin in China, investors wonder: Are Chinese equity valuations cheap enough to bring good fortune ahead? What will turn investor sentiment around? Equity valuations already reflect a lot of uncertainty about the short-term and long-term path, suggesting a tactical rebound may be in the cards.
At the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year, the FOMC voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%.
Markets achieved a trifecta of good news in 2023: an economy that not only avoided recession but reaccelerated, meaningful progress on disinflation, and the Fed pivot markets had been trying to manifest for over a year.
Geopolitical uncertainty and an impending U.S. presidential election, coupled with the divergence in performance across assets in January, help to underline the importance of diversification in a fundamentally uncertain world.
Much has been said about the “Magnificent 7” stocks that dominated market returns last year, ending 2023 up 107% and accounting for around two-thirds of the S&P 500’s performance.
After an impressive equity rally in 2023 and new all-time highs to start 2024, investors are evaluating their equity allocations, which includes where to position along the market cap spectrum.
International equities are likely to benefit this year from positive structural changes, a weaker dollar, and exciting governance changes.
Presidential elections always add an extra element of uncertainty to investing, and after a halcyon 2023 in equity markets, could come as a shock to investors. On top of assessing the path of the Federal Reserve, the stability of profits and the consumer, and navigating economic resilience vs. recession, investors will have to grapple with the barrage of headlines about the 2024 election.
A spike in oil prices could lead to higher prices at the pump, further disrupting the broad disinflationary trend.
The December CPI report showed an unexpected bounce in inflation with headline CPI rising 0.3% m/m (consensus 0.2%) and the year-over-year rate rising to 3.4% (consensus 3.2%).
Although investors may be tempted to invest based on who they think will win the election and how certain policies may be implemented, macro forces often dwarf policy agendas when it comes to sector performance.
For investors, should fundamentals remain solid we would expect the Fed to begin gradually reducing rates by the middle of this year and for long-term rates to stabilize at current levels, before grinding lower over the balance of the year.
Many investors wonder if they can tweak their existing exposures to be either more defensive against volatility or more opportunistic if certain sectors face future policy tailwinds.
We cannot predict what theme will dominate the markets in 2024, but we can control how we react to positive and negative surprises by having a measured approach to portfolios.
Deficits are financed through Treasury issuance, and it is likely this significant increase in Treasury bond supply relative to estimates contributed to the move higher in bond yields this year.
At its final meeting of 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50% and strongly hinted it is finished hiking interest rates this cycle.
In many ways, 2023 can be used as evidence that asset allocators must learn to “expect the unexpected”: the U.S. economy avoided a recession, the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates higher, growth equity continued to outperform relative to value and the international recovery was largely lackluster.
Japan has long been a disappointing market for global investors, with annualized 15-year returns of 6.4% (in U.S. dollars) versus 13.7% in the U.S. Slow growth, negative interest rates, lack of focus on shareholders, and better opportunities elsewhere in Asia kept investment dollars away from Japan.
For investors, large caps may be better insulated from higher rates than small caps, and falling net interest costs can assist decelerating input costs and wages in supporting stabilizing margins.
The big story for U.S. equity markets this year has been the remarkable performance of the largest seven technology stocks or the “magnificent 7.” These handful of stocks account for nearly 100% of S&P 500 YTD returns and are up over 72% this year.
Many investors are comfortable with the concept of fundamental analysis but are less confident in the technical aspects of market forecasting. As a result, they may wonder: does technical analysis matter?
Active stock selection remains of the utmost importance, as investors should look toward attractively priced companies with strong balance sheets and resilient profits.
For markets, disinflation could pose an earnings headwind for certain industries like autos, hotels and airlines while the Fed’s “higher for longer” mantra could instill continued volatility in bond markets.
While many of the traditional sources of diversification have been challenged by market conditions, alternative investments can enhance diversification.
Coming into 2023, the rallying cry from the asset management community was “Bonds are Back! ”. There were several reasonable assumptions behind this call.
While a reacceleration in growth and/or inflation could prompt another rate hike either in December or early next year, short-term bumps in a downward trending economy likely keep the Fed on hold well into 2024.
Historically, Chinese market recoveries can be fast and furious, highlighting the risk of being too underweight China when pessimism is already elevated.
At the start of the year, investors and economists were confident that 2023 would be a challenging year for the economy, markets and corporate profits. In the event, however, growth has been better than expected, equity markets are higher, and earnings have surprised to the upside.
The secondary market can often relieve liquidity issues for investors in private equity by offering the opportunity to sell existing investments to another buyer.
At first glance, the jump in energy equities may seem like a temporary phenomenon, but a variety of economic factors could support the sector’s performance over the longer-term.
Given the shifting characteristics in the bond market and uncertainty around the path of rates from here, investors should engage in an active approach with proven managers in their fixed income allocations.
The question for investors, however, is which measure of earnings has the highest correlation with stock market returns.
With two FOMC meetings before year end, investors and policymakers are closely monitoring the totality of incoming data to determine whether the committee will lift rates again or go on an extended pause.
Despite many looming threats to the economy, 3Q23 earnings season should hopefully represent a relative bright spot in the landscape.
As rates have moved higher risk assets have found themselves under pressure, with the S&P 500 down more than 7% from its July 31st high of 4,589. To an extent, this price action has been driven by a shift in investor psychology whereby “good news” is now “bad news.”
It is still a close call on whether the economy will enter a recession or not, but we do believe slow growth is the most likely outcome, while risks for a mild recession remain.
If automobile production decreases, prices for vehicles, particularly used ones, may increase once more, unwinding some of recent disinflation and putting renewed upward pressure on “super-core” CPI.
After well over a year of anxiously anticipating an economic recession, the U.S. economy continues to look sound. However, as we enter the “fall of worry” there are several risks on the horizon this autumn: impacts from the UAW strike, rising oil prices, the resumption of student loan payments, and the potential for a government shutdown.
As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50% at its September meeting.
Last quarter, 40% of S&P 500 companies mentioned artificial intelligence (AI) in their earnings calls – more than double from a year earlier – and their collective investments in AI are exploding.
With the possibility of tighter financial conditions going forward, investors may be well served by looking for any signs that tighter conditions are beginning to weigh on activity.
Over the long run, duration will be an investor’s friend for both asset classes: not only will lower rates push bond prices higher, but a lower opportunity cost of owning equities and easy monetary policy should allow valuations and earnings expectations to move higher.
While what happens in China will continue to influence growth, sentiment, and performance in the broader EM universe, powerful structural and cyclical themes can lead to differentiated performance.
We expect a slower growth and cooling inflation environment will allow the Fed to gradually reduce rates next year, thus stabilizing real yields and potentially biasing them lower.
With many parents (and investors!) taking the end of summer to be with their families and go to the beach one last time, kids are not the only ones who need a refresher before they head back to the classroom; in today’s blog, we try to help parents get ready to go “back to school.”
2023 has seen more office conversion activity – while sometimes this can be easier said than done, it does suggest that there is an evolving opportunity in the office space for investors who can deploy additional capital.
India’s smaller share in global manufacturing exports and its lower dependence on the China reopening story helps to explain its strength versus other export-oriented Asian economies’ struggles.
While the probability of a soft landing has risen given the generally strong incoming data, the concern is that most leading indicators continue to point to recession.
The rally in corporate credit may have caught some investors by surprise given the consensus that a recession would materialize this year, a historically bad environment for credit spreads.
Looking back at the past six U.S. stock market declines greater than 10%, international has not always sold off more. In some instances, it has performed in line or even better.
This combination of resilient growth, better than expected profits and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence has led to a strong rally in U.S. equities so far this year.
The likely cause for declining oil prices is increased U.S. production, which is expected to reach an all-time high in 2023.
While the Fed may need some more convincing over the next two meetings, it seems reasonable to expect this tightening cycle will end this year.
It would not be surprising to see a more notable re-rating in valuations later this year or in early 2024; this, in turn, will create opportunity for both primary and secondary market investors.
Beneath the surface are two market dynamics: the megacap tech stocks, which account for the lion’s share of positive market performance year-to-date, and everything else.
The combination of slower economic growth, higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions are likely to weigh on CapEx and could be the thing that tips the U.S. economy into a mild recession.
Fundamentals differ significantly at the sector level. For example, office remains the weakest sector, as vacancy rates remain elevated, and firms struggle to fully exit remote working.
Today’s announcement made it clear that the committee still needs more compelling evidence that inflation is under control and could very well tighten at least once more this summer.
While labor market conditions may have had some effect on pushing up services prices, we think its impact is overstated. Over the last 4 months, more than half of the year-over-year gain in core services ex-shelter inflation has come from transportation services alone.
Core infrastructure continues to represent a way to generate income without taking on more equity risk, while proactively hedging portfolios from the chance that inflation is harder to tame than many currently expect.
Although rates have risen across the curve in recent weeks due to debt ceiling uncertainty, more hawkish Fed expectations, and resilient economic data, the overall macro landscape is one of slowing growth and receding inflation.
In real estate, industrial asset valuations have barely flinched given low vacancy rates and rising rents, whereas the office space has seen (and is expected to see) further pain as we determine what the future of work will look like.
Given the rapid tightening from the Federal Reserve, property values are likely to be marked down in the quarters ahead impacting loan values on bank balance sheets.
This combination of lower rates, higher equity valuations, and declining earnings – with a potential recession on the horizon – leaves us cautious on the equity market at current levels.
A pause from the Fed is certainly welcome from a broader macro perspective, but the challenges facing local and regional banks in particular, are still prevalent.
For Americans planning for retirement, the obvious implication is to save and invest more. Beyond this, it has become increasingly necessary to have some assets outside of traditional 401(k)s and IRAs.
The U.S. reached its debt limit of USD 31.4 trillion on January 19th and has since been relying on funds in the Treasury General Account (TGA) and so-called “extraordinary measures” to fund its obligations.
The statement language has shifted from “ongoing increases will be appropriate” to a data-dependent approach “in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate”, hinting the committee is ready to pause rate increases.
After an initial rally of 60% from late October to late January, Chinese equities have corrected 15% and are now down marginally for the year.
The bottom line is that performance in U.S. equity markets so far this year has been all about rates, a theme that should persist as earnings expectations gradually align with reality.
The first estimate of 1Q23 real GDP showed the economy grew at a 1.1% annualized rate, below the consensus expectation for 1.9% growth.
Moreover, many banks stepped away from riskier lending in the aftermath of 2008, creating an opportunity for private credit firms and other direct lenders to increase their market share.
Those waiting for a pick-up in unemployment to signal a looming recession or that the Fed can finally declare victory may be too late.
These financial institutions would incorporate FedNow into their existing transfer infrastructure, so consumers, businesses and non-bank payment providers would use the system indirectly, rather than treat it as a third-party application.
The key point, though, is that much of the “stickiness” that has been ascribed to core services may largely reflect the lingering hangover of supply chain issues, where Fed policy has little impact.
The bottom line is that performance in U.S. equity markets so far this year has been all about rates, a theme that should persist as earnings expectations gradually align with reality.
However, with a potential recession on the horizon and vulnerabilities in the financial system, investors ought to be selective, gearing towards the highest quality areas of the bond market.
In the statement, the Federal Reserve (Fed) acknowledged the potential implications of banking turmoil on the economic outlook but highlighted that at this point, it’s uncertain how big that impact will be.
However, we seem to be at the beginning of a turnaround given the change in the international growth and interest rate backdrop, together with a potential shift in market leadership.
As we emerge from this pandemic with inflation now rising at its fastest pace since the 1980s, the biggest question for investors is whether some of this inflation will prove “sticky”.
Investors have had to process a torrent of information and wild swings in sentiment so far this year.
The S&P 500 has marched steadily higher from its March 23rd low against a backdrop of investor skepticism. In previous posts, we have discussed how this rally is being driven by three things.
The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.
Global governments have been swift and bold in supporting their economies, building a bridge to get consumers, small businesses and corporates over the present abyss to the other side. Given the unknown breadth and depth of the abyss, more stimulus may be required.
Year-to-date, emerging market (EM) equities are down -17.6%, as a combination of the COVID-19 recession and the oil price shock has led to downward revisions to earnings expectations, as well as weaker currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.
Ultimately, the Fed’s next step will be dictated by the pathway of the virus, says Dryden.
The next president will necessarily have a different policy agenda now given the events that have unfolded than he would have at the beginning of the year.
Infrastructure resiliency during the COVID-19 crisis
Global markets have roiled in the face of COVID-19 and social distancing, and many investors are looking to “pick up the pieces,” eagerly hunting for the next big opportunity.
While many changes are likely to emerge, one clear trend, with far-reaching macro and market implications, is the increase in leverage, says Azzarello.
Earlier this week, oil prices turned negative for the first time in history, with WTI trading as low as -$37 a barrel.
Over the past two months investors have digested the COVID-19 shock: the fast spread of the virus around the world, the social distancing measures implemented and the resulting economic and earnings recession.
1Q20 earnings season will provide an important first look at how the ongoing pause in global activity is impacting corporate earnings.
The industries most impacted by social distancing account for 20% of payroll employment, and consumer spending across those industries account for 20% of GDP.
Today’s objectively complicated credit market may be an excellent source of future portfolio growth, says Dryden.
Ultimately, how high the unemployment rate gets is dependent on one key question: will American small business fire its workers, says Manley.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.
As economists continue to revise down their 2020 GDP estimates, a lot of clients have been asking us about the potential impact on earnings.
This past Sunday, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) fired a last desperate salvo in an attempt to stabilize financial conditions, the second emergency inter-meeting cut in two weeks.
Coming into this year, we expected an improvement in global economic growth, as 2019’s policy uncertainty clouds dissipated.
The COVID-19 crisis confirms, once again, the value of a diversified portfolio, says David Kelly.
There is not a clear answer. However, what we can provide perspective on, is where we are finding value, according to David Lebovitz.
Former Vice President Joe Biden made a surprise comeback during the Super Tuesday contests, paving the way for a two-person race to the Democratic nomination.
Sentiment, and valuations, are likely to keep markets relatively contained until there is clarity about the extent and length of the outbreak, says Tyler Voigt.
Equity investors spend a lot time looking for where earnings growth will be strong; what doesn't get as much attention is what happens after they're generated.
"Equity investors spend a lot time looking for where earnings growth will be strong; what doesn't get as much attention is what happens after they're generated."
Taken at face value, the fall in job openings is concerning and warrants careful monitoring.
Financial markets have fallen sharply on concerns of the coronavirus, a respiratory illness first identified in Wuhan, China, spreading globally.
Equity market valuations have risen substantially in recent months, with the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 now at a level of 18.6x.
Investors are now asking whether inflation could return, threatening the rally in financial markets.
Buying the dip - the coveted strategy (almost) all investors like to employ.
Rising geopolitical tensions with Iran have led to some fears over potential oil supply shocks out of the Middle East.
Rising geopolitical tensions with Iran have led to some fears over potential oil supply shocks out of the Middle East.