Simplify the complex with our timely and thought-provoking insights on market events and outlook and make informed investment decisions more confidently.
The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses what investors should expect after the recent slew of robust economic data, and what it means for investors.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Ian Hui and Gareth Lam, looks into whether commodities can still protect investors from inflation given the global transition to a low-carbon economy.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the driving forces behind the recent Chinese yuan rally and what this means for investors.
Could carbon prices be about to rise? Global market strategist Vincent Juvyns looks at the increasing regulatory pressures on carbon pricing, and assesses the potential impact on markets
In this final paper of our "achieving net zero" series, we discuss the pillars of the policy mix and how the transition to net zero will impact some of the industries.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the latest wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Asia and vaccination progress with its investment implications to Asian equities.
In this third paper of our "achieving net zero" series, we discuss the technologies and strategies required in the path towards net-zero emissions.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses why Asian investors may want to look to European equities to provide return-generating potential and diversification benefits to their core equities allocation.
This paper, written by Ian Hui, highlights the outlook of 2021 U.S. earnings and its investment implications.
In this second paper out of four, we discuss the scale of the challenge ahead in the path towards a carbon-neutral world.
In this first paper out of four, we explore the paths that economies across the world are taking in the effort to achieve net-zero emissions, and introduce this series of four papers which will provide a framework to understand and address the challenges of getting to net zero and the associated investment implications.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, addresses the recent announcement of U.S. tax increase proposal and its investment implications.
Recent economic and employment indicators have improved markedly in recent weeks. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appropriately acknowledged this recent strength, while continuing to reassure investors it would not act prematurely in pulling back monetary support.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses how investing in core real assets can help investors hedge the risk of inflation while still creating income.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Chaoping Zhu, breaks down the 1Q 2021 Chinese GDP figures and discusses how this would impact China's fiscal and monetary policies, and subsequently, Chinese investments.
Over the last 12 months, the global pandemic has shaken our lives in many ways. While good health and social interactions are probably top of mind for most of us, the environment and climate are also among our key concerns.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the inflation outlook in the U.S. and around the world in the coming months and years, and what this means for investors.
Inflation has been a hot topic amongst investors. Globally, inflation is expected to rise this year from 2020’s low levels. This reflation, a sign that the economy is operating above potential, should lead to strong earnings growth as well
For better or for worse, banks are required to meet various liquidity and leverage requirements. One ratio that measures a bank’s ability to absorb losses is the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). The SLR formula measures tier 1 capital, which consists mostly of common and preferred stock, as a percent of total leverage exposure.
Rapidly rising incomes in vast populations are set to make Asia the largest contributor to global growth in the 2020s. For investors, the opportunity looks too big to ignore.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses the drivers behind the recent Chinese equities market correction, and how investors should prepare for what comes next.
The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and the passing of a further USD 1.8trillion fiscal package has brightened the economic outlook and today’s meeting gave investors a gauge on how this might adjust monetary policy in the years ahead.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the impacts of rising U.S. Treasury yields and stronger U.S. dollar on different emerging markets asset classes.
The pandemic would always have demanded a dramatic response in terms of easy monetary and fiscal policy. However, policy responses have been shaped not just by the needs of the present but by the lessons of the past.
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Gareth Lam, discusses the factors driving the recent jump in commodity prices, and whether they are entering a supercycle.
Explore the strategies that can help investors maintain income and diversification in a post-Covid world of low interest rates and negative government bond yields.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides our forecast of what will be discussed and announced in China's National People's Congress on March 5, as well as its implications for investors investing in China.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rise in government bond yields on the back of market expectations of economic recovery in the U.S., upcoming fiscal stimulus and the prospects of high inflation, as well as its implications for different asset classes.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the potential path for China’s policy normalization after the country’s economy recovered from COVID-19.
This paper, written by David M. Lebovitz and Ian Hui, discusses our views on the U.S. 4Q20 earnings season so far and its investment implications.
The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.
Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the latest market volatility and its investment implications.
A fresh flock of doves
Joe Biden’s presidency is expected to bring increased momentum on tackling climate change. Carbon intensity is likely to become an increasingly important metric in investment decisions.
It is hard to remember a time when Brexit was not dominating British headlines, but at the midnight hour, UK and EU negotiators finally reached agreement on a new trade deal. This piece addresses the key questions surrounding the deal: what is covered, how does it impact the outlook for the UK economy, and what are the market implications?
Several major news outlets are now projecting that the Democrats will win the two remaining Senate races following Tuesday's run-offs in Georgia.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the key market risks heading into 2021.
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the recovery of various Asian economies from the COVID-19 pandemic and discusses the near-term and longer-term regional outlook.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on central bank policies to address inflation concerns heading into 2021.
2020 has been an exceptional year, largely due to the onset of COVID-19 and the global economic fallout from the pandemic. This paper addresses nine questions that are most concerned by our clients regarding 2021 outlook for such an unusual economic and policy environment.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the ending of various Federal Reserve credit facilities in a time of lower fiscal support and weaker economic activity.
Thsi paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the 3Q 2020 U.S. earnings results and the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic.
A Covid-19 vaccine could be a game changer for the global economy and markets. Global Market Strategist, Mike Bell highlights three areas that could continue to benefit should a vaccine be approved.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Meera Pandit, provides the latest update on the U.S. presidential election and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Vincent Juvyns, looks at how investors can manage climate-related risks in their portfolios, while also driving real change.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rebound in COVID-19 cases and their implications on global markets.
The spread of the coronavirus and its impact on global economic activity has materially changed the investment outlook for 2020. In this piece we provide a framework for tracking infection rates globally and monitoring the impact on economic activity.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the latest Chinese GDP data and recovering economy with its investment implications.
Turbulence defines today’s investment environment, with great waves of uncertainty surging from the pandemic, the election, fiscal policy and a slowdown in what had been, to this point, a sharp recovery from a very deep recession. The waves of uncertainty should fade in 2021 and, as they do so, the primary role of interest rates in determining asset class returns should reassert itself.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese yuan following its recent strong performance.
This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, gives our prospects about China’s upcoming 14th five-year plan. To be approved in October and implemented during 2021 to 2025, this plan will have profound impacts to Chinese economy and financial market.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following recent economic data releases.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the positive outlook on global equities despite high valuations.
The lack of policy action from the ECB is much more to do with the reduced effectiveness of the remaining options at its disposal rather than the ECB being comfortable with the current state of the economy.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the longer-term outlook for equities following the recent sell-off of tech and growth stocks.
All the analysis investors need as America selects its next president
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent statement by the Federal Reserve and its implications on global markets.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the recent discussion between the U.S. and China regarding the Phase One trade agreement.
Top questions on Asian economic and financial market developments
Last week, we learned that the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in July.
Last week, we learned that the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in July.
Last week, we learned that the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in July.
This paper, written by Gabriela Santos, discusses the outlook for U.S.-China tensions amidst COVID-19 and the upcoming election season.
Notes on the week ahead from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Yeo, provides a framework for comparing the policy responses and risks faced by Asian economies from the pandemic.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.
Part of being a good builder is knowing what tools to use. Is something being demolished? Get a sawzall and a sledge hammer.
We revisit asset allocation views as the global economy appears to be in the early innings of recovery, but stares down the limitations to growth in a pre-vaccine world.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.
A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.
Equity markets have rebounded quickly from their March lows on the back of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy response. Although technology and healthcare are holding up relatively well compared to the more cyclical parts of the equity market, 2Q2020 should mark a low point for earnings.
This paper examines the economic outlook following the recent Federal Open Market Comittee meeting.
Central banks are printing money and governments are showering it round the economy. Government debts levels are eye-wateringly high. It's no wonder investors are questioning whether a resurgence in inflation is on the cards.
After four days of negotiations the European Union (EU) council has come to an agreement on a EUR 1,074 billion Multiannual Financial Framework and a EUR 750 billion Next Generation EU recovery fund.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the rebound in Chinese economic activity and its implications for investors.
The size of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet has started to shrink in recent weeks. Its balance sheet has declined 2.9%, or USD 210billion (bn), from its peak of USD 7.17trillion (tn) in June. Some investors are worried that the Fed is now intentionally dialing back its liquidity support and what the implication of this may be for markets.
China’s stock markets have been experiencing a strong rally since last week, and the upward momentum seems to be building further.
Our views on the current A-share rally
Due to COVID-19 and the discussions around social issues and climate change, Sustainable Investing (SI) is more relevant today than ever before.
One of the best trades to put on in the aftermath of the financial crisis was going long high yield. Spreads blew out to nearly 18% in November 2008, implying a default rate of almost 30%. Looking back, this is far from what actually materialized, as default rates on U.S. high yield peaked at a level of 11% in November of the following year. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) becoming increasingly active in credit markets, we have been getting more and more questions on the outlook for high yield; the bottom line is that while valuations are not terribly compelling, the near-term path for credit spreads may be tighter.
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Chaoping Zhu, looks at the attractiveness of the Chinese bond market in the current global environment.
Over the past 15 years, investors have been frustrated with the performance of European equities.
At the end of last week, it looked like the equity market pullback that everyone had been expecting was finally beginning to materialize.
Should investors be concerned with another round of risk aversion?
Brexit risk is not a thing of the past. As the 11-month transition period progresses, look out for the negotiations to become a source of heightened volatility.
Is it Europe’s time to shine?
June 2, 2020
The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.
Global governments have been swift and bold in supporting their economies, building a bridge to get consumers, small businesses and corporates over the present abyss to the other side. Given the unknown breadth and depth of the abyss, more stimulus may be required.
Year-to-date, emerging market (EM) equities are down -17.6%, as a combination of the COVID-19 recession and the oil price shock has led to downward revisions to earnings expectations, as well as weaker currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.
While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.
The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.
Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control.
Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discussed the performance and outlook of Chinese economy, policies amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.
Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.
Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia
As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.
In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.
Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.
The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020
The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.
China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.
Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.
The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.
Managing Director Chief Market Strategist, Asia Pacific
Executive Director Global Market Strategist
Executive Director Global Market Strategist
Vice President Global Market Strategist
Vice President Global Market Strategist
Vice President Global Market Strategist
Vice President Global Market Strategist
Vice President Global Market Strategist
Managing Director Chief Market Strategist, Asia Pacific
Executive Director Global Market Strategist
Executive Director Global Market Strategist
Vice President Global Market Strategist
Vice President Global Market Strategist
Vice President Global Market Strategist
Vice President Global Market Strategist
Vice President Global Market Strategist
