Market Insights

Simplify the complex with our timely and thought-provoking insights on market events and outlook and make informed investment decisions more confidently.

Explore our most popular Insights

Guide to the Markets

The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

Guide to Alternatives

Get insights on macro topics such as manager dispersion, while also diving into real estate, private credit, private equity and hedge funds and more.

Eye on the Market

Explore Eye on the Market, timely commentary that offers views on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios by Michael Cembalest.

On Investors' Minds - APAC Edition

Listen to the latest insights from Tai Hui to better understand what is happening in the financial markets from our Asia Pacific headquarters in Hong Kong

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Latest commentary

Higher for longer amid a soft-landing scenario

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Can the commodities market give us a gauge on policy and growth?

This paper, written by Adrian Tong, highlights the driving forces and outlook of oil, food and metal prices, with their implications on policy and growth. (3-minute read)

How might the outlook for real yields impact market performance?

This paper, written by Jordan Jackson, discusses the outlook for inflation, Fed policy and real rates, as well as the investment implications.

Can Asia domestic demand stand in for slowing trade?

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, addresses the key drivers and outlook of Asian domestic demand with its investment implications.

U.S. corporate investments and its impact on Asia tech

This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu and Adrian Tong, discusses the risks of corporate caution in the U.S. and the impact on the Asia tech sector.

What is really going on with real assets?

This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Kerry Craig, discusses outlook for real assets, especially in the office space.

Assessing the financial and deflation risk from a weak China recovery

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses China's property market, deflation risk and the investment implications.

What is ‘up’ with rates?

This paper, written by Jordan Jackson, discusses the recent rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the investment implications.

China economy: further policy actions expected to restore confidence

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, Marcella Chow and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the recent China activity data and the investment implications.

Sustainability and portfolio returns

This paper, written by Karen Ward and Hugh Gimber, discusses sustainable investing returns performance and ongoing shifts in the landscape.

The role of U.S. high yield bond in income generation

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the state of the U.S. economy and the investment implications on fixed income.

Was that the end of the rate hiking cycle?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, summarizes the previous highlights and upcoming outlook for central banks' meetings with investment implications.

Another hike despite falling inflation

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

India’s appeal to investors

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook for India equities and the investment implications.

Has the U.S. equity market rallied too much?

This paper, written by Meera Pandit and Nimish Vyas, discusses the recent U.S. equity market performance, earnings outlook and the investment implications.

China’s economy: Policy escalation expected amid continued slowdown

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the inflation outlook for China, policy expectations and the investment implications.

Has the CRE risk to banks gone away?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the outlook for commercial real estate, the impact on the banking sector and the investment implications.

Is the Fed getting inflation wrong?

This paper, written by Stephanie Aliaga, reviews the May U.S. CPI report and the investment implications.

Sticking to our view for a weaker USD

This paper, written by Ian Hui, addresses our view for U.S. dollar and outlook on interest rate differentials with investment implications. (3-minute read)

Gauging the direction of global equity earnings growth

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for global equity earnings and the investment implications.

Mid-Year Review | 2023

Learn more about our latest outlook on the global economy and policy, and the implications for investors in the next 6-12 months.

Will the Fed pause or hike in June?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses our rate expectations and the investment implications.

What is driving Japanese equities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, highlights the key drivers of Japanese equities and outlook of Japanese yen with investment implications. (3-minute read)

U.S. Tech: More room to run?

This paper, written by Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the recent U.S. equity rally and the outlook for U.S. technology stocks.

What are global central banks going to do in 2H 2023?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the expectations of global monetary policy in 2H23 and the investment implications.

1Q23 U.S. earnings: Better than expected

This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas, discusses the 1Q23 U.S. corporate earnings and the investment implications.

Debt-Ceiling Cliff Dancing

This paper, written by David Kelly, discusses the U.S. debt-ceiling issue and the investment implications.

A pivot-al decision

In a highly anticipated policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 5.00%-5.25%, the highest level since June 2006.

Don’t overlook the investment case for Asia fixed income

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses the outlook for Asia fixed income and the investment implications.

Will the U.S. dollar go “digital”?

This paper, written by Jack Manley, discusses the new payment service FedNow and its implications on the U.S. dollar

China’s road to recovery

This paper, written by Chaoping, discusses the latest Chinese economic data and the investment implications.

Playing devil’s advocate with our 2Q 2023 market view

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the challenges to our key asset allocation views.

Will the U.S. experience a credit crunch?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Marcella Chow, discusses the recent tightening of credit conditions, risk of a recession and the investment implications.

Banking turmoil does little to shift Fed’s focus from the inflation war

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Could the recent banking sector stress persuade the Fed to go slow?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent bank failures and our expectations of the March FOMC meeting results.

Is 2% still the magic number for central banks?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the Fed's 2% inflation target and our expectations of the inflation trajectory.

SVB and the Fed: Braking Point not Breaking Point

This paper summarizes the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the implications on Fed policy and investments. (3-min read)

A weaker U.S. dollar should support EM and Asian assets

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the outlook for U.S. dollar and the key factors driving its performance with investment implications.

The impact of higher interest rates on housing and consumers

Learn whether rising interest rates could cause a housing market crash and what it means for consumers.

China NPC preview

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides the preview of the National People's Congress annual session and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

Principles for Successful Long-term Investing

Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.

The path ahead for Japan’s monetary policy

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Shogo Maekawa, Jennifer Qiu and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for Japan's monetary policy and its investment implications.

Solving for income

The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.

Navigating rates and growth uncertainty within fixed income

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our views on growth and rates, as well as the outlook for different fixed income assets. (3-minute read)

4Q22 U.S. Earnings: The calm before the storm?

This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas, discusses the 4Q22 U.S. earnings results so far and the investment implications. (3-minute read)

Disagreement between the Fed and investors could bring more volatility

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses U.S. growth and inflation, as well as expectations of the Fed's upcoming rate decisions.

The spillover effects of China’s reopening

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the impact of China’s reopening on tourism, trade and inflation.

Marking the bottom of the Chinese economic cycle

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy with update on latest GDP number and situation of COVID-19. (3-minute read)

A policy party to end 2022

This paper, written by Tai Hui, Chaoping Zhu, Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, discusses continued hawkishness among DM central banks and China's Central Economic Work Conference.

The Fed remains determined to fight inflation

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to raise the Federal funds rate target range by 0.50% to 4.25%-4.50%. (3-min read)

Dovish undertones with more tightening to come

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

China market: buoyant market sentiment along a bumpy road to recovery

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy and CNY in light of the recent easing of COVID restrictions and upcoming policy conferences.

All eyes on U.S. consumers this holiday season

This paper, written by Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the mixed outlook for U.S. consumer spending given lower savings rate, real wage growth and consumer sentiments.

Just how bad (or good) is economic growth?

The prevailing economic resiliency coincides with softening inflation, which gives the Federal Reserve an opportune window of slowing inflation but solid growth to tighten monetary policy to an appropriately restrictive stance and maintain that level for a period of time before growth starts to bite.

The Year Ahead 2023

We believe 2023 is likely to be a year of subpar economic performance among developed economies. However, policy support and relatively attractive valuations across many asset classes could facilitate a better year for investors. In our 2023 Year Ahead, we address the 10 most frequently asked questions on the economy and asset allocation from investors across Asia.

Gridlock means greater focus on inflation and the Fed

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for markets after the mid-term U.S. elections.

What is the outlook for long-term returns?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and David Lebovitz, discusses the outlook for the macroeconomic environment and asset class returns based on the 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions.

A glimpse of hope for U.S. and China equities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook for U.S. and China equities after recent economic and policy news. (3-minute read)

Key events to watch out for to gauge China’s policy pivot

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for China’s policy pivot and the investment implications.

Opportunities within fixed income: A trick or a treat?

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for fixed income and the investment implications.

The advantage of high dividend stocks in a stagflationary environment

Explore how dividend paying stocks can help build portfolio resilience against the prospects of high inflation and recession.

Politics and policy: The U.S. midterm elections

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Meera Pandit, discusses the policy and market outlook with regards to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. (3-minute read)

What should investors expect for 3Q22 earnings?

The third quarter earnings season is set to kick-off with the large U.S. banks releasing results. Our current estimate for 3Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $53.82, representing year-over-year (y/y) growth of 3.5% and quarter-over-quarter (q/q) growth of 14.8%.

Are European assets cheap enough?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Vincent Juvyns, Marcella Chow and Hugh Gimber, discusses the outlook of European equities and fixed income. (3-minute read)

After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?

The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.

Why cash is not king

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses why investors should stay invested through an income approach. (3-minute read)

The challenge facing UK policymakers to stabilize sterling markets

This paper discusses the current uncertainties surrounding the UK government and economy, as well as market movements and outlook. (3-minute read)

Are we in or headed towards a recession?

The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

Russia-Ukraine Chart Pack

The Russia-Ukraine Chart Pack aims to help investors understand the investment implications of the current situation in Russia and Ukraine holistically and why it is important to stay invested

Protecting against inflation: Part 3 – Protecting your capital

Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.

Protecting against inflation: Part 2 – The labour market is key

Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.

Why and how to re-think the 60:40 portfolio

The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.

What are President Biden’s policy priorities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.

Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.

What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.

What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.

Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.

Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?

A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.

China’s 2Q GDP and June economic data improve on post-COVID rebound

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the rebound in Chinese economic activity and its implications for investors.

Could we see another round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S.?

China’s stock markets have been experiencing a strong rally since last week, and the upward momentum seems to be building further.

Enhance yields with Chinese bonds in the zero interest rate era

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Chaoping Zhu, looks at the attractiveness of the Chinese bond market in the current global environment.

Is it Europe’s time to shine?

Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?

June 2, 2020

Will the Fed cause inflation?

The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.

Has all EM behaved the same way this year?

Year-to-date, emerging market (EM) equities are down -17.6%, as a combination of the COVID-19 recession and the oil price shock has led to downward revisions to earnings expectations, as well as weaker currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.

Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now

While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.

What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.

What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.

COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever

The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.

Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?

Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control.

The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market

Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.

Chinese GDP in Recession amid Virus Outbreak

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discussed the performance and outlook of Chinese economy, policies amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.

How vulnerable are emerging markets?

Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.

Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?

Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia

China set to advance stimulus efforts

As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.

A COVID-driven spike in claims

Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.

The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.

What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.

The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability

In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.

Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?

Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.

Equity markets fall into correction

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.

Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?

The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.

What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020

Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks?

The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.

What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?

China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.

Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.

Is the U.S.-China trade war over?

Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.

Should investors still worry about US-China trade?

The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.