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Guide to the Markets

The Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

Guide to Alternatives

Get insights on macro topics such as manager dispersion, while also diving into real estate, private credit, private equity and hedge funds and more.

Eye on the Market

Eye on the Market offers timely commentary and views on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios from Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy.

Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q 2023

Subtrend growth and elevated recession risks call for cautious allocation. Our highest conviction call is to be overweight duration. We modestly underweight equity and take a neutral stance on credit, preferring investment grade to high yield.

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Global Equity Views 1Q 2023

Our portfolio managers are becoming more optimistic. Profit forecasts are getting more realistic, so far earnings have held up well, and valuations look much more attractive than they did a year ago.

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Global Fixed Income Views 2Q 2023

Recession remains our base case, at 60% probability, as central bankers say they will fight inflation aggressively. We lowered Crisis to 5% and raised Sub Trend Growth to 35%, acknowledging the global economy’s resilience.

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Factor Views 2Q 2023

Market reversals challenged many factors in 1Q 2023, though performance remains broadly positive over 12 months. We continue to view factors’ prospects as attractive, particularly equity value. This quarter, we introduce new credit factors.

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