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            <p>2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions</p>

            The 30th annual edition explores how rising economic nationalism and fiscal activism create both challenges and silver linings for investors. Technology adoption will provide a near-term boost to profits and a longer-term boost to productivity.

            1. Home
            2. Insights
            3. Portfolio Insights overview

            Projections for stronger portfolios

            Our assumptions see attractive real return potential, while differentiation across assets provides a richer hunting ground for active investors .

            Shifting landscapes and silver linings

            Rising economic nationalism and fiscal activism create both challenges and silver linings for investors. The return for a USD global 60/40 stock-bond portfolio holds steady at 6.4% while a 60/40+ with alternative assets increases overall returns and lowers volatility. We see a fertile backdrop for good active managers.

            Portfolio construction in flux

            A traditional “60/40” portfolio may be challenged to meet investor objectives. Diversifying the diversifiers is essential (global currencies, alpha strategies, and uncorrelated alternatives). A “60/40+” portfolio with diversified alternatives can boost returns and lower volatility – but the size and mix will be unique to each investor.

            Resilient growth and warmer inflation

            Despite dramatic policy shifts, particularly in the U.S., global growth remains resilient and inflation only slightly warmer and more variable. Economic nationalism and policy uncertainty create lasting drags and a more fragmented environment, giving technology an increasingly central role in sustaining growth. 

            Topics

            Matrices

            Our expectations for returns, volatilities and correlations. Use our interactive version to download the excel in your chosen currency.


            The assumptions are not designed to inform short term tactical allocation decisions. Our assumptions process is carefully calibrated and constructed to aid investors with strategic asset allocation or policy-level decisions over a 10- to 15-year investment horizon.

            Download Excel and PDF matrices by currency

            • Excel
            • PDF

            Assumptions

            Examine our return projections by major asset class and the thinking behind the numbers.

            Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Methodology Handbook

            A companion volume to dive deeper into our LTCMAs’ building blocks

            • Executive Summary
            • Macroeconomic
            • Public markets
            • Private markets
            • Volatility, Correlation and Portfolio Implications

            EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

            Shifting landscapes and silver linings

            Key points

            Economic nationalism and barriers to trade and migration weigh on global growth. But they are also galvanizing offsetting positive forces – creating silver linings. Trade uncertainty spurs fiscal activism. Labor market constraints accelerate technology adoption, providing a near-term boost to profits and a long-term boost to productivity.

             

            Even after a year of strong equity gains, asset returns hold up. Profitability offsets valuation for global stocks. Bond returns rise amid higher term risk premia. Alternatives offer growing opportunities to strengthen portfolio resilience.

             

            The economic landscape is shifting. But, in our view, much of what worries investors today will ultimately pale beside the silver linings we see breaking through over the long run.

            A steady exposure to stocks and bonds has stood the test of time over the last three decades

            Growth of 60/40 over 30 years, and average returns through the period

            ltcma-executive-summary-exihibit1

            Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; data as of September 30, 2025.

            MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

            Resilient growth and warmer inflation

            Key points

            Elevated tariffs and restrictive immigration policies lower our U.S. GDP growth assumption. But limited labor supply spurs investments in advanced technologies, boosting productivity gains. 

             

            Developed market (DM) growth declines marginally, mainly on the U.S. downgrade, yet nationalism and populism, boosting defense and infrastructure spending, sustain growth elsewhere. 

             

            Emerging market (EM) growth is stable: India’s favorable demographics and China’s productivity offset lower capital investment. 

             

            DM inflation rises amid Europe’s fiscal spending, U.S. trade frictions and Japan’s rising inflation expectations. China weighs down EM inflation.

            Tighter immigration policies appear set to pull U.S. labor force growth toward zero

            Contributions to U.S. population growth (% change y/y)

            ltcma-macro-exihibit2

            Source: Congressional Budget Office, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; data as of September 30, 2025.

            PUBLIC MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

            Resilient profits, higher yields

            Key points

            We continue to see solid long-term return opportunities across public markets, despite a strong rally in risk assets and a reshuffling of global growth forecasts. Our 10- to 15-year forecast sees global equities returning 7.0% annualized in USD, supported by resilient corporate profitability and rapid technological innovation.
             

            With yields higher, we forecast the highest U.S. government bond returns since the financial crisis, at 4.6%. However, bonds’ traditional hedging role may be less reliable in this new environment.

             

            Credit markets’ improved fundamentals and higher issuer quality leave our U.S. high yield forecast unchanged at 6.1%.

             

            A weakening USD makes portfolio FX hedging decisions paramount, and adds a tailwind for non-USD returns.

            Uncertainty about policymaking stability and safe-haven appeal has raised Treasuries’ term premium

            Expected yield curve slope

            ltcma-public-market-exihibit3

            Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; data as of September 30, 2025.

            PRIVATE MARKETS AND ALTERNATIVE ASSET ASSUMPTIONS

            Powerful market forces set capital in motion

            Key points

            Economic nationalism, fiscal activism and technological innovation will drive structural change in private markets and set capital in motion. Asset valuations may recalibrate and opportunities emerge.
             

            Higher trade barriers will dampen global economic growth and raise inflation – with a mixed impact on real assets. Private equity and hedge funds benefit from looser U.S. financial regulation.

             

            Fiscal activism allows for productivity gains; interest rates ease globally. Deal volume and valuations in the real estate market should improve, and declining rates should similarly affect private equity.

             

            Surging investment in technology and AI adoption will drive innovation and efficiency across all private markets, particularly private equity, but also real estate and infrastructure.

            Globally, AI investment continues to drive significant deal flow

            Global corporate investment in AI (by type), USD bn

            ltcma-private-exihibit4

            Source: Stanford University Artificial Intelligence Index Report, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; data as of September 30, 2025.

            Volatility, Correlation and Portfolio Implications

            Changing portfolio construction in a shifting landscape

            Key Points

            Over the next decade investors will need to grapple with inflation and rate shocks as well as economic (growth) shocks. It’s a new landscape, reflecting the interplay among the forces of economic nationalism and fiscal activism. Together they are reshaping volatility and asset class correlation expectations. 
             

            In the face of higher and more unstable stock-bond correlations, investors need to think differently about portfolio resilience. To diversify the diversifiers, currency diversification, alpha strategies and certain alternative assets are essential.

             

            A “60/40+” portfolio, which includes a diversified alternatives allocation, has the potential to boost overall returns and lower volatility relative to a traditional “60/40” public market portfolio.

            Portfolios that include alternatives can improve risk-adjusted returns, but the 60/40+ can vary

            Projections for portfolio returns and volatility, based on 2026 LTCMA figures

            ltcma-portfolio-exihibit5

            Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; data as of September 30, 2025. Diversified alternatives allocation includes global real estate, global real assets, private credit, hedge funds and private equity.

            Download this year's Long Term Capital Market Assumptions report

            ltcma-cover-banner-340x440

            Important information

            JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. “Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example, changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control. The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

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