Week in review
- U.S. retail sales drop 0.9% m/m
- Australian unemployment rate 4.2% in May
- U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates at 4.25-4.50%
Week ahead
- U.S. and Eurozone PMI for manufacturing and services
- Australia monthly CPI for May.
- Japan retail sales
Thought of the week
Is this the beginning? Following the April tariff announcements business and consumer survey data quickly plunged, signalling impending economic stress. It was anticipated that this slowdown in economic activity would soon be reflected in the ‘hard data’. So far there has been little evidence of this. There has been some weakness in housing market data, with homebuilders experiencing weaker demand and homebuyers potentially facing higher interest rates. The retail sales figures were also soft, which is significant for the U.S. given nearly two thirds of economic activity is driven by household spending. Although the 0.9% m/m decline was the result of spending ahead of the tariffs, changing household attitudes suggests that consumers are becoming a little more careful with their money. The uncertain environment may be as damaging as some of Washington’s policy decisions.
U.S. households and companies are in ‘wait and see’ mode
U.S. consumer durable buying conditions and small business capex intentions
Source: FactSet, NFIB, University of Michigan, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 19/06/25.
All returns in local currency unless otherwise stated.
Equity price levels and returns: Levels are prices and returns represent total returns for stated period.
Bond yields and returns: Yields are yield to maturity for government bonds and yield to worst for corporate bonds. All returns represent total returns. AusBond Comp is the AusBond Composite 0+ Yr, AusBond IG is the AusBond Credit 0+ Yr both provided by Bloomberg.
Currencies: All cross rates are against the Australian dollar. An appreciation of the foreign currency against the Australian dollar would be positive and a depreciation of the foreign currency against the Australian dollar would be negative.
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