On the Minds of Investors
Drawing on the depth and breadth of their market and economic expertise, our global macro strategists offer insight into today's big investment themes to enable more confident portfolio decisions.
You asked, we answer. On the Minds of Investors tackles the big questions we hear in our conversations with clients – it’s our latest thinking on the issues that matter to you.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Marcella Chow, discusses the recent tightening of credit conditions, risk of a recession and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent bank failures and our expectations of the March FOMC meeting results.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the Fed's 2% inflation target and our expectations of the inflation trajectory.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the outlook for U.S. dollar and the key factors driving its performance with investment implications.
Learn whether rising interest rates could cause a housing market crash and what it means for consumers.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides the preview of the National People's Congress annual session and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Shogo Maekawa, Jennifer Qiu and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for Japan's monetary policy and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas, discusses the 4Q22 U.S. earnings results so far and the investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our views on growth and rates, as well as the outlook for different fixed income assets. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses U.S. growth and inflation, as well as expectations of the Fed's upcoming rate decisions. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy with update on latest GDP number and situation of COVID-19. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the impact of China’s reopening on tourism, trade and inflation. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, Chaoping Zhu, Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, discusses continued hawkishness among DM central banks and China's Central Economic Work Conference. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy and CNY in light of the recent easing of COVID restrictions and upcoming policy conferences. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the mixed outlook for U.S. consumer spending given lower savings rate, real wage growth and consumer sentiments. (3-minute read)
The prevailing economic resiliency coincides with softening inflation, which gives the Federal Reserve an opportune window of slowing inflation but solid growth to tighten monetary policy to an appropriately restrictive stance and maintain that level for a period of time before growth starts to bite.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit, Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for markets after the mid-term U.S. elections. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook for U.S. and China equities after recent economic and policy news. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui and David Lebovitz, discusses the outlook for the macroeconomic environment and asset class returns based on the 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for China's policy pivot and the investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for fixed income and the investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Paola Toschi and Vincent Juvyns, discusses the outlook for high dividend stocks in the current market environment and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Nimish Vyas, summarizes the results from the 3Q22 earnings season so far and the outlook for equity markets.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Meera Pandit, discusses the policy and market outlook with regards to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Vincent Juvyns, Marcella Chow and Hugh Gimber, discusses the outlook of European equities and fixed income. (3-minute read)
The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses why investors should stay invested through an income approach. (3-minute read)
This paper discusses the current uncertainties surrounding the UK government and economy, as well as market movements and outlook. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses our outlook for the U.S. dollar and its investment implications on Asian assets and currencies. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the current outlook of growth stocks and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook of the U.S. high yield corporate bonds and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, summarizes the key takeaways from the Jackson Hole meeting and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This week, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a legislative package that includes climate spending, prescription drug pricing reform, and tax reform, was signed into law. The IRA represents a meaningful commitment to climate goals and should reduce the deficit over the next decade but is unlikely to reduce inflation and will weigh on 2023 profits.
This paper, written by David Lebovitz, Ian Hui and Nimish Vyaz, summarizes the 2Q22 U.S. earnings result and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the current situation and development of Asian technology sector with investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views on enhancing the 60/40 portfolio in today's market environment with investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views regarding the earnings recession in the U.S. and path of inflation with investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the prospects and views regarding the gradual recovery of China's economy and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the sustainability as a long-term investment theme and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the fixed income as a portfolio component to prepare for slower growth and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, describes the situation of private markets under the prospect of higher rates, higher inflation and a slower growth outlook with investment implications. (4-minute read)
While investors will inevitably be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy this week, one question on the back of everyone’s mind would be the risk of a recession in the U.S. (4-minute read)
Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses inflation and central bank policy in Asia, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the current China's COVID situation and future policy with its investment implications. (4-minute read)
Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.
The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.
A re-rating of valuations has led to negative equity returns year-to-date, but importantly, earnings estimates have continued to trend higher. In an environment of rising rates, earnings will be the key driver of returns. (4-minute read)
The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.
The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, addresses the current volatility in global equity markets and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the current Chinese supply chain under the impact of the COVID-19 wave and Chinese policy, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the driving forces behind recent depreciation pressure in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, and what this means for investors. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the weakened Chinese economic data in March, and the subsequent policy and investment implications. (4-minute read)
2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic—as well as over the prior cycle—under pressure. (4-minute read)
Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.
This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, looks at our deep-dive analysis into the forward-looking demand, supply chain issues, inflation and their investment implications. (4-minute read)
Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the recent turn to hawkishness in developed market central bank policies and its investment implications.
December 19, 2019
January 16, 2020
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rebound in COVID-19 cases and their implications on global markets.
January 23, 2020
February 11, 2020
On the Minds of Investors - January 29, 2020
February 5, 2020
The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.
While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the recent discussion between the U.S. and China regarding the Phase One trade agreement.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.
A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.
July 21, 2020
July 14, 2020
This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell's decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.
This paper, written by Tai, Hui and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following recent economic data releases.
This paper, written by Tai, Hui, discusses the positive outlook on global equities despite high valuations.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the longer-term outlook for equities following the recent sell-off of tech and growth stocks.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent statement by the Federal Reserve and its implications on global markets.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese yuan following its recent strong performance.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the latest Chinese GDP data and recovering economy with its investment implications.
This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Ian Hui, discusses our views on the U.S. 4Q20 earnings season so far and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the latest market volatility and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the key market risks heading into 2021.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on central bank policies to address inflation concerns heading into 2021.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the ending of various Federal Reserve credit facilities in a time of lower fiscal support and weaker economic activity.
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the 3Q 2020 U.S. earnings results and the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic.
The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.
February 19, 2020
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Due to COVID-19 and the discussions around social issues and climate change, Sustainable Investing (SI) is more relevant today than ever before.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Meera Pandit, provides the latest update on the U.S. presidential election and its investment implications.
At the end of last week, it looked like the equity market pullback that everyone had been expecting was finally beginning to materialize.
The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.
covid 19 affect sustainable bonds
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