Week in review
- U.S. retail sales 4.0% y/y in March
- Eurozone composite PMI falls 2.1pts to 48.6
- NZ CPI inflation 3.1% y/y in 1Q
Week ahead
- Australia CPI inflation for March
- U.S. FOMC meeting
- ECB policy meeting
Thought of the week
Equity markets have rebounded despite tensions in the Middle East. The forward-looking nature of equity markets means they may have discounted some of the worst-case scenarios, and focused on rising earnings expectations, particularly in the U.S. However, higher energy prices are creating a divide: net oil importers’ equity markets are lagging oil exporters, reflecting greater economic headwinds. In Australia and the U.K., the energy shock is adding to already elevated inflation, prompting expectations of further policy tightening and driving these currencies higher. The uneven impact of rising energy prices will be reflected differently across markets. Central bank action to curb inflation could lead to tighter policy, supporting currencies but limiting equity gains. An active approach to markets may help capture relative performance opportunities given the fluid nature of this shock on the global economy.
Net oil exporters equity and currency markets performing relatively better
Currency and equity index (local currency return) since 27 Feb 2026
Source: MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 24/04/2026.
All returns in local currency unless otherwise stated.
Equity price levels and returns: Levels are prices and returns represent total returns for stated period.
Bond yields and returns: Yields are yield to maturity for government bonds and yield to worst for corporate bonds. All returns represent total returns. AusBond Comp is the AusBond Composite 0+ Yr, AusBond IG is the AusBond Credit 0+ Yr both provided by Bloomberg.
Currencies: All cross rates are against the Australian dollar. An appreciation of the foreign currency against the Australian dollar would be positive and a depreciation of the foreign currency against the Australian dollar would be negative.
Material ID: 95e655c0-f9d9-11e8-bfcc-8e0bde0598ff
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