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1
In the short term, having a little extra cash can be beneficial if you need to allocate quickly to new opportunities. However, cash is not always king when it comes to generating long-term returns.
Central banks underwent the fastest rate hiking cycle in years in 2022 and 2023, and now rate will start to ease making other assets more attractive compared to cash.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., FactSet, FTSE, J.P. Morgan, MSCI, Standard & Poor's, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Annualised return (Ann.) and volatility (Vol.) covers the period 31/12/2009 to 31/12/2024. EM equity: MSCI Emerging Markets; Australian FI: Bloomberg AusBond Composite (0+Y); Global FI: Barclays Global Aggregate; DM equity: MSCI World; Aus. equity: ASX 200 Index; REITs: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Australia; Cash: Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index. Portfolio is hypothetical portfolio (for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation): 15% DM equities; 10% EM equities; 25% Australian equities; 25% Australian FI; 10% Global FI; 5% Cash and 10% REITs. Returns are unhedged, total return, in Australian dollars. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
Guide to the Markets – Australia. Data as of 31 December 2024.
2
The total return on fixed income investments consist of two components; price, or capital, appreciation and coupon return.
The steady stream of income earned from the coupons can offset the risk of price declines and serve a critical buffer for portfolios.
This buffer is still significant even if yields move downward.
Total return, assumes a parallel shift in the yield curve
AGBs refer to Australian Government Bonds.
3
Yields of government bonds may be the closest to their highest in a decade, but yields are even higher across other sectors in the fixed income universe.
Income seekers have an opportunity to pick up even higher rates of income by moving past government bonds and looking into the credit market or even emerging market bonds.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., FactSet, ICE BofA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Euro IG: Bloomberg Barclays Euro-Aggregate – Corporate; Global IG: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate – Corporate; Aus IG: Bloomberg AusBond Credit (0+Y); U.S. IG: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Corporate. Euro HY: ICE BofA Euro Developed Markets Non-Financial High Yield Constrained Index; Global HY: ICE BofA Global High Yield; U.S. HY: ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Constrained Index; USD EM Corp: CEMBI Broad Diversified; Local EMD: GBI-EM Global Diversified; USD EMD: EMBI Global; USD Asia Credit: JPM Asia Credit; Local Asia EMD: JPM JADE; USD Asia HY: JPM Asia HY. Positive yield does not imply positive return. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Max yield on USD Asia HY is 19.1%.
Guide to the Markets – Australia. Data as of 31 December 2024.
4
Investment-grade bonds are the debt issued by companies that have a very low chance of default or represent a low credit risk.
The risk is not zero and this means that investors can earn extra yield compared to a government bond. This spread between corporate and government debt represents another source of income for investors.
5
Beyond investment-grade bonds are high yield bonds. This is debt issued by companies with slightly higher credit risk.
However, investors can find themselves being compensated for this additional risk through additional yield.
The price of high yield bonds can fall sharply if the economy moves into recession. Investors will have to be mindful of just how much exposure to high yield debt they have in a weak macro economic climate.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., FactSet, J.P. Morgan Securities, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Default rates are defined as the par value percentage of the total market trading at or below 50% of par value and include any Chapter 11 filing, prepackaged filing or missed interest payments. Spreads indicated are benchmark yield to worst less comparable maturity Treasury yields.
Guide to the Markets – Australia. Data as of 31 December 2024.
6
Fixed income investments diversify the risk from other assets in a portfolio. Bonds have a negative correlation to equities over time.
This diversification principle applies within an asset class as well as between them.
Including a wider array of fixed income instruments has yielded a better result than simply trying to pick the best one.
Fixed income doesn’t mean investors have to be fixed in their allocation. Being dynamic to take advantage of a shifting economic environment or better pricing can be an attractive strategy.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., FactSet, ICE BofA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Aus Gov: AusBond Treasury (0+Y); U.S. Treas.: Barclays U.S. Aggregate Government – Treasury; Global IG: Barclays Global Aggregate – Corporate – Investment Grade; Aus IG: Bloomberg AusBond Credit (0+Y); Global HY: BoA/ML Global High Yield; EM Debt: J.P. Morgan EMBI Global; U.S. TIPS: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS); U.S. MBS: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Securitised – MBS. Hypothetical portfolio (for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation): 25% Aus Gov, 15% Aus IG, 10% Global IG, 15% Global HY, 10% EM Debt, 15% U.S. Treas., 5% U.S. TIPS, 5% U.S. MBS. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
Guide to the Markets – Australia. Data as of 31 December 2024.
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Diversification does not guarantee positive returns or eliminate risk of loss.
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