Weekly Market Recap
Australia
22/06/2020
Week in review
- Australian unemployment rate rises to 7.1%
- Chinese retail sales better than expected at -2.8% y/y
- U.S. retail sales jumps by record 17.7%m/m
Week ahead
- Global PMI manufacturing surveys
- RBNZ official cash rate decision
- U.S. durable goods
Thought of the week
Australia lost a further 228,000 jobs in May, bringing the cumulative total loss since February to 838,000 and employment growth in Australia languishing at -5.4%y/y. The headline rate of unemployment rose to 7.1%. This number understates the true unemployment rate given the masking effect of the JobKeeper scheme and those that have stopped looking for jobs. 142,000 people left the labour force in May. Even with the mixed messages in last week’s labour market report the trend is clear. The unemployment rate has not yet reached its peak. The inevitable changes to the JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs and the return of many workers to the labour force will see the unemployment rate continue to rise as we head through the third quarter.
Employment in Australia
Year-over-year change
Source: ABS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, all returns in local currency unless otherwise stated.
Equity price levels and returns: Levels are prices and returns represent total returns for stated period.
Bond yields and returns: Yields are yield to maturity for government bonds and yield to worst for corporate bonds. All returns represent total returns. AusBond Comp is the AusBond Composite 0+ Yr, AusBond IG is the AusBond Credit 0+ Yr both provided by Bloomberg.
Currencies: All cross rates are against the Australian dollar. An appreciation of the foreign currency against the Australian dollar would be positive and a depreciation of the foreign currency against the Australian dollar would be negative.
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