Weekly Market Recap

Week in review

US PMI manufacturing
FOMC minutes confirm a comfort in being on hold
RBA minutes show board waiting to see effect of earlier cuts

Week ahead

U.S. consumer confidence
Australia private sector credit
Eurozone CPI inflation

Thought of the week

The last twelve months has seen a number of market and economic indicators point towards a recession. The U.S. equity market went through a bear market, the yield curve inverted and the global manufacturing sector fell into contraction. However, none of these things happened at the same time, leaving investors with a lingering uncertainty about the direction of the global economy. Last week’s global purchasing index for manufacturing offers a little more guidance. In absolute terms the numbers still aren’t great, but have been moving higher for the past few months. We may be past the bottom in the global manufacturing sector and in for a little more growth in the quarters ahead.

Manufacturing cycle looks to be lifting off the bottom
Global PMIs for manufacturing and services

Source: Markit, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, all returns in local currency unless otherwise stated.

Equity price levels and returns: Levels are prices and returns represent total returns for stated period.

Bond yields and returns: Yields are yield to maturity for government bonds and yield to worst for corporate bonds. All returns represent total returns. AusBond Comp is the AusBond Composite 0+ Yr, AusBond IG is the AusBond Credit 0+ Yr both provided by Bloomberg.

Currencies: All cross rates are against the Australian dollar. An appreciation of the foreign currency against the Australian dollar would be positive and a depreciation of the foreign currency against the Australian dollar would be negative.

Week ahead survey figures from FactSet.

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