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Bond trends in a new policy era
Even though a second Trump administration has settled in, US policy implementation remains uncertain. Indeed, actual policy action often differs from campaign rhetoric.
In the meantime, the Federal Reserve continues to curate a soft-landing scenario with an eye towards the evolution of fiscal policy. With inflation generally benign, the path to further rate cuts will likely depend on global fiscal and economic developments. Further weakness could trigger the US central bank to adjust rates lower1, as illustrated below.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left its cash rate target unchanged at its November 2024 meeting. Meanwhile, the labour market remains tight in Australia, with the December unemployment rate at 4.0%, well below the RBA’s 2024 year-end estimate of 4.3%. The participation rate has also reached a record high of 67.1%, while the underemployment rate has further declined to 6.0%, evidencing reduced slack in the labour market2.
Coupled with the disinflation trend remaining broadly on track, the Australian economy seems to be navigating in RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s ‘narrow path’ to a soft landing, relieving the immediate need for a rate cut in February2.
Nevertheless, we still see value in staying invested in fixed income. Bonds are regaining their place in portfolios as both an attractive source of income opportunities and portfolio diversifier3.
4. Source: Bloomberg L.P., FactSet, ICE BofA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Euro IG: Bloomberg Barclays Euro-Aggregate – Corporate; Global IG: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate – Corporate; Aus IG: Bloomberg AusBond Credit (0+Y); U.S. IG: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Corporate. Euro HY: ICE BofA Euro Developed Markets Non-Financial High Yield Constrained Index; Global HY: ICE BofA Global High Yield; U.S. HY: ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Constrained Index; USD EM Corp: CEMBI Broad Diversified; Local EMD: GBI-EM Global Diversified; USD EMD: EMBI Global; USD Asia Credit: JPM Asia Credit; Local Asia EMD: JPM JADE; USD Asia HY: JPM Asia HY. Positive yield does not imply positive return. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Max yield on USD Asia HY is 19.1%. Data as of 07.02.2025.
As illustrated above, yields across many bond sectors continue to hover near the decade-high ranges. Moreover, higher starting yields may correlate with higher forward returns4 and this could present an attractive opportunity to lock in elevated yields.
For specific sectors, we are constructive on securitised5 credit, including US mortgage-backed securities and we continue to find opportunities in high-yield6 and investment-grade corporate credit. This broadly reflects stronger fundamentals amid a healthier outlook for revenues and earnings.
Still, actively managing duration7 and credit risks8 remain crucial.
Key takeaways
Fixed income is suited for active management
The growing influence of ETFs in the fixed income market
The future of fixed income ETFs is here, and it’s active
No benchmarks, no bias, no borders
For some bond strategies, we employ a flexible, global fixed income investment approach that can help investors, depending on their investment objectives and risk appetite, capture income opportunities as bond markets recover, while managing uncertainties such as the path of interest rates and inflation.
Without a benchmark as a starting point and free from bias to any region or sector, such an approach allows investors to explore all avenues to seek total return, income and volatility management, with investment managers dynamically adjusting asset allocation and duration7 as market conditions evolve.
At J.P. Morgan Asset Management, our cross-sector expertise and deep research resources enable us to invest across the global bond universe, building dynamic fixed income portfolios for a range of risk appetites and goals. Our disciplined investment process combines top-down and bottom-up analysis, with a common research framework to integrate ideas.
A truly global investment platform
Leverages a broad global platform of 300+ fixed income investment professionals in five locations9 to identify high-conviction ideas across multiple fixed income sectors.
Dynamic asset allocation
Experienced portfolio managers set and dynamically adjust asset allocation and duration7 as market conditions evolve.
Rigorous risk management
With no benchmark as a starting point, we take a holistic and rigorous approach to risk8.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management presents fixed income solutions that spans the risk spectrum, underpinned by the deep resources and rigorous research of a truly global platform9.
307
Fixed income investment professionals
US$858 billion
Assets under management
8
Fixed income investment hubs across five locations
9. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, data as of 30.09.2024. Includes portfolio managers, research analysts, traders and investment specialists with VP title and above.
Explore our insights
Use our quarterly slide pack to assess the latest developments across global bond markets.
Read the latest quarterly outlook from Bob Michele, Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income.
Stay up to date with the latest developments on global bond markets, straight from our team of fixed income experts.
Actionable investment ideas
With starting yields across many fixed income sectors still hovering near decade highs, the window to lock in elevated yields remains open.
Read more
With yields hovering close to decade highs across many fixed income sectors, investors are presented with a “menu of options”. Still, selectivity matters as recession risks loom.
Read more
After a difficult year for bonds, we explain why fixed income could once again prove to be a useful diversifier for portfolios.
Read more
As the Fed’s rate hike cycle concludes, bonds can present an important source of income and diversification for portfolios.
Read moreProvided for information only based on market conditions as of date of publication, not to be construed as offer, research, investment recommendation or advice. Forecasts, projections and other forward looking statements are based upon current beliefs and expectations, may or may not come to pass. They are for illustrative purposes only and serve as an indication of what may occur. Given the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with forecast, projections or other forward statements, actual events, results or performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated.
Ratings are published by Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN: 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445 (Lonsec Research) a wholly owned subsidiary of Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd ABN: 41 151 235 406 (Lonsec Group). Generation Development Group Limited ABN: 90 087 334 370 is the parent company of Lonsec Group. Ratings are general advice only and have been prepared without taking into account investors’ objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider your personal circumstances, read the product disclosure statement and seek independent financial advice before investing. The rating is not a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold any product. Past performance information is not indicative of future performance. Ratings are subject to change without notice and Lonsec Research assumes no obligation to update. Lonsec Research uses objective criteria and receives a fee from the Fund Manager. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied is made and no responsibility or liability is accepted by Lonsec Research, its directors, officers, employees and agents for any error or inaccuracy, misstatement or omission from this document or any loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it. Visit lonsec.com.au for ratings information and to access the full report. © 2025 Lonsec. All rights reserved.
The Zenith Investment Partners (ABN 27 103 132 672, AFS Licence 226872) (“Zenith”) rating (assigned March 2025 for PER0716AU, PER0727AU and PER6912AU) referred to in this piece is limited to “General Advice” (s766B Corporations Act 2001) for Wholesale clients only. This advice has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual, including target markets of financial products, where applicable, and is subject to change at any time without prior notice. It is not a specific recommendation to purchase, sell or hold the relevant product(s). Investors should seek independent financial advice before making an investment decision and should consider the appropriateness of this advice in light of their own objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should obtain a copy of, and consider the PDS or offer document before making any decision and refer to the full Zenith Product Assessment available on the Zenith website. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Zenith usually charges the product issuer, fund manager or related party to conduct Product Assessments. Full details regarding Zenith’s methodology, ratings definitions and regulatory compliance are available on our Product Assessments and at Fund Research Regulatory Guidelines (https://www.zenithpartners.com.au/our-solutions/investment-research/regulatory-guidelines).
Diversification does not guarantee investment return and does not eliminate the risk of loss.
2. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, “Weekly Market Recap”, week of 20.01.2025.
3. Not all investments are suitable for all investors. Exact allocation of portfolio depends on each individual’s circumstance and market conditions.
5.Securitisation is the process in which certain type of assets, such as mortgages or other types of loans, are pooled so that they can be repackaged into interest-bearing securities. Examples of securitised debt include asset-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities.
6.High-yield credit refers to corporate bonds which are given ratings below investment grade and are deemed to have a higher risk of default. Yield is not guaranteed. Positive yield does not imply positive return.
7. Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of the principal) of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates and is expressed as number of years.
8. Risk management does not imply elimination of risks. Investors should make their own evaluation or seek independent advice and review offering documents carefully before investing.
© 2025 All Rights Reserved – JPMorgan Asset Management (Australia) Limited ABN 55 143 832 080, AFSL No. 376919.
Future performance and return of capital is not guaranteed. Information is considered correct at the time of issue but no liability for errors or omissions will be accepted by JPMorgan Asset Management (Australia) Limited or its affiliates.
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