Market Insights

A preview of China National People’s Congress

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides our forecast of what will be discussed and announced in China's National People's Congress on March 5, as well as its implications for investors investing in China.

Inflation worries and the rise in government bond yields

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rise in government bond yields on the back of market expectations of economic recovery in the U.S., upcoming fiscal stimulus and the prospects of high inflation, as well as its implications for different asset classes.

Why and how to re-think the 60:40 portfolio

The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.

China’s path to policy normalization

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the potential path for China’s policy normalization after the country’s economy recovered from COVID-19.

U.S. 4Q20 earnings season

This paper, written by David M. Lebovitz and Ian Hui, discusses our views on the U.S. 4Q20 earnings season so far and its investment implications.

Solving for income

The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.

Principles for Successful Long-term Investing

Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.

How should Asian investors handle the current bout of market volatility?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the latest market volatility and its investment implications.

What are President Biden’s policy priorities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.

A fresh flock of doves

What does Biden's presidency mean for the global climate agenda?

Joe Biden’s presidency is expected to bring increased momentum on tackling climate change. Carbon intensity is likely to become an increasingly important metric in investment decisions.

Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.

What are the implications of the Brexit deal for the economy and markets?

It is hard to remember a time when Brexit was not dominating British headlines, but at the midnight hour, UK and EU negotiators finally reached agreement on a new trade deal. This piece addresses the key questions surrounding the deal: what is covered, how does it impact the outlook for the UK economy, and what are the market implications?

Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.

US election: Democrats take control of the Senate

Several major news outlets are now projecting that the Democrats will win the two remaining Senate races following Tuesday's run-offs in Georgia.

What could upset a happy New Year?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the key market risks heading into 2021.

Northeast and Southeast Asia paving the way to prosperity

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the recovery of various Asian economies from the COVID-19 pandemic and discusses the near-term and longer-term regional outlook.

Should investors worry about inflation?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on central bank policies to address inflation concerns heading into 2021.

The Year Ahead 2021

2020 has been an exceptional year, largely due to the onset of COVID-19 and the global economic fallout from the pandemic. This paper addresses nine questions that are most concerned by our clients regarding 2021 outlook for such an unusual economic and policy environment.

What are the implications of rising corporate bond defaults in China?

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.

What does the end of the Fed’s credit facilities mean?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the ending of various Federal Reserve credit facilities in a time of lower fiscal support and weaker economic activity.

Was the 3Q earnings season really that great?

Thsi paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the 3Q 2020 U.S. earnings results and the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Where still offers value and could continue to benefit if a vaccine is approved?

A Covid-19 vaccine could be a game changer for the global economy and markets. Global Market Strategist, Mike Bell highlights three areas that could continue to benefit should a vaccine be approved.

Election 2020: Results and consequences

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Meera Pandit, provides the latest update on the U.S. presidential election and its investment implications.

How should investors consider the impact of climate change on their portfolios?

This paper, written by Vincent Juvyns, looks at how investors can manage climate-related risks in their portfolios, while also driving real change.

What should investors do, given the latest surge in COVID-19 in Europe and the U.S.?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rebound in COVID-19 cases and their implications on global markets.

Monitoring the global impact of COVID-19

The spread of the coronavirus and its impact on global economic activity has materially changed the investment outlook for 2020. In this piece we provide a framework for tracking infection rates globally and monitoring the impact on economic activity.

China’s recovery on track

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the latest Chinese GDP data and recovering economy with its investment implications.

The Fed’s Timetable

Turbulence defines today’s investment environment, with great waves of uncertainty surging from the pandemic, the election, fiscal policy and a slowdown in what had been, to this point, a sharp recovery from a very deep recession. The waves of uncertainty should fade in 2021 and, as they do so, the primary role of interest rates in determining asset class returns should reassert itself.

Are Chinese authorities worried about the Chinese yuan's strength?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese yuan following its recent strong performance.

What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.

Rebalancing for high-quality growth: What to expect from China’s new five-year plan

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, gives our prospects about China’s upcoming 14th five-year plan. To be approved in October and implemented during 2021 to 2025, this plan will have profound impacts to Chinese economy and financial market.

What is the latest progress of China's economic recovery?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following recent economic data releases.

Why should I invest in equities when they are already so expensive?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the positive outlook on global equities despite high valuations.

ECB: Talking the talk but not walking the walk

The lack of policy action from the ECB is much more to do with the reduced effectiveness of the remaining options at its disposal rather than the ECB being comfortable with the current state of the economy.

Can the market bounce back?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the longer-term outlook for equities following the recent sell-off of tech and growth stocks.

US presidential election 2020

All the analysis investors need as America selects its next president

What does the Fed’s latest change in monetary policy framework mean for Asian investors?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent statement by the Federal Reserve and its implications on global markets.

What are the implications from the latest review of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the recent discussion between the U.S. and China regarding the Phase One trade agreement.

Asia Insights

Top questions on Asian economic and financial market developments

Where do we stand in the economic recovery?

Last week, we learned that the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in July.

Should I be positioned for higher yields?

Last week, we learned that the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in July.

Loss aversion: How does this impact investors now?

Last week, we learned that the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in July.

Will tensions between the U.S. and China keep rising?

This paper, written by Gabriela Santos, discusses the outlook for U.S.-China tensions amidst COVID-19 and the upcoming election season.

The Investment Implications of the Coronavirus Debt Surge

Notes on the week ahead from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist

Introducing our Asia COVID-19 tracker

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Yeo, provides a framework for comparing the policy responses and risks faced by Asian economies from the pandemic.

What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.

A good investor knows their tools

Part of being a good builder is knowing what tools to use. Is something being demolished? Get a sawzall and a sledge hammer.

How should current conditions be reflected in asset allocation?

We revisit asset allocation views as the global economy appears to be in the early innings of recovery, but stares down the limitations to growth in a pre-vaccine world.

Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.

Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?

A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.

2Q20 Earnings: Guide me to your profits

Equity markets have rebounded quickly from their March lows on the back of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy response. Although technology and healthcare are holding up relatively well compared to the more cyclical parts of the equity market, 2Q2020 should mark a low point for earnings.

More than ever, monetary policy is being dictated by the virus

This paper examines the economic outlook following the recent Federal Open Market Comittee meeting.

Could the policy response to Covid-19 lead to a resurgence in inflation?

Central banks are printing money and governments are showering it round the economy. Government debts levels are eye-wateringly high. It's no wonder investors are questioning whether a resurgence in inflation is on the cards.

EU agrees on budget and recovery fund: A step towards more integration

After four days of negotiations the European Union (EU) council has come to an agreement on a EUR 1,074 billion Multiannual Financial Framework and a EUR 750 billion Next Generation EU recovery fund.

China’s 2Q GDP and June economic data improve on post-COVID rebound

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the rebound in Chinese economic activity and its implications for investors.

Is the Fed reducing liquidity?

The size of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet has started to shrink in recent weeks. Its balance sheet has declined 2.9%, or USD 210billion (bn), from its peak of USD 7.17trillion (tn) in June. Some investors are worried that the Fed is now intentionally dialing back its liquidity support and what the implication of this may be for markets.

Could we see another round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S.?

China’s stock markets have been experiencing a strong rally since last week, and the upward momentum seems to be building further.

Our views on the current A-share rally

Why should investors consider Sustainable Investing?

Due to COVID-19 and the discussions around social issues and climate change, Sustainable Investing (SI) is more relevant today than ever before.

When it comes to fixed income, do you like high yield?

One of the best trades to put on in the aftermath of the financial crisis was going long high yield. Spreads blew out to nearly 18% in November 2008, implying a default rate of almost 30%. Looking back, this is far from what actually materialized, as default rates on U.S. high yield peaked at a level of 11% in November of the following year. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) becoming increasingly active in credit markets, we have been getting more and more questions on the outlook for high yield; the bottom line is that while valuations are not terribly compelling, the near-term path for credit spreads may be tighter.

Enhance yields with Chinese bonds in the zero interest rate era

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Chaoping Zhu, looks at the attractiveness of the Chinese bond market in the current global environment.

Will investing in European equities ever pay off?

Over the past 15 years, investors have been frustrated with the performance of European equities.

When will we finally see a market correction?

At the end of last week, it looked like the equity market pullback that everyone had been expecting was finally beginning to materialize.

Should investors be concerned with another round of risk aversion?

Why are people talking about Brexit risks...again?

Brexit risk is not a thing of the past. As the 11-month transition period progresses, look out for the negotiations to become a source of heightened volatility.

Is it Europe’s time to shine?

The European Central Bank levels up its stimulus efforts

Today’s actions from the European Central Bank (ECB) were at the upper end of market expectations.

Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?

June 2, 2020

The Fed’s balance sheet: To infinity and beyond

To frame the balance sheet discussion, we consider the impact to real GDP, employment and inflation under each recovery scenario.

Will the Fed cause inflation?

The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.

How will COVID-19 affect Sustainable Bonds?

Global governments have been swift and bold in supporting their economies, building a bridge to get consumers, small businesses and corporates over the present abyss to the other side. Given the unknown breadth and depth of the abyss, more stimulus may be required.

Has all EM behaved the same way this year?

Year-to-date, emerging market (EM) equities are down -17.6%, as a combination of the COVID-19 recession and the oil price shock has led to downward revisions to earnings expectations, as well as weaker currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.

Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now

While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.

What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.

What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.

COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever

The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.

Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?

Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control.

The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market

Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.

Chinese GDP in Recession amid Virus Outbreak

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discussed the performance and outlook of Chinese economy, policies amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.

How vulnerable are emerging markets?

Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.

Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?

Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia

China set to advance stimulus efforts

As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.

A COVID-driven spike in claims

Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.

The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.

What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.

The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability

In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.

Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?

Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.

Equity markets fall into correction

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.

Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?

The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.

What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020

Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks?

The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.

What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?

China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.

Is the U.S.-China trade war over?

Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.

Should investors still worry about US-China trade?

The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.

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Market Insights

Stay Current

EXPLORE OUR MOST POPULAR INSIGHTS

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LATEST COMMENTARY

A preview of China National People’s Congress

Inflation worries and the rise in government bond yields

Why and how to re-think the 60:40 portfolio

China’s path to policy normalization

U.S. 4Q20 earnings season

Solving for income

Principles for Successful Long-term Investing

How should Asian investors handle the current bout of market volatility?

What are President Biden’s policy priorities?

A fresh flock of doves

What does Biden's presidency mean for the global climate agenda?

Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?

What are the implications of the Brexit deal for the economy and markets?

Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

US election: Democrats take control of the Senate

What could upset a happy New Year?

Northeast and Southeast Asia paving the way to prosperity

Should investors worry about inflation?

The Year Ahead 2021

What are the implications of rising corporate bond defaults in China?

What does the end of the Fed’s credit facilities mean?

Was the 3Q earnings season really that great?

Where still offers value and could continue to benefit if a vaccine is approved?

Election 2020: Results and consequences

How should investors consider the impact of climate change on their portfolios?

What should investors do, given the latest surge in COVID-19 in Europe and the U.S.?

Monitoring the global impact of COVID-19

China’s recovery on track

The Fed’s Timetable

Are Chinese authorities worried about the Chinese yuan's strength?

What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

Rebalancing for high-quality growth: What to expect from China’s new five-year plan

What is the latest progress of China's economic recovery?

Why should I invest in equities when they are already so expensive?

ECB: Talking the talk but not walking the walk

Can the market bounce back?

US presidential election 2020

What does the Fed’s latest change in monetary policy framework mean for Asian investors?

What are the implications from the latest review of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement?

Asia Insights

Where do we stand in the economic recovery?

Should I be positioned for higher yields?

Loss aversion: How does this impact investors now?

Will tensions between the U.S. and China keep rising?

The Investment Implications of the Coronavirus Debt Surge

Introducing our Asia COVID-19 tracker

What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?

A good investor knows their tools

How should current conditions be reflected in asset allocation?

Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?

Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?

2Q20 Earnings: Guide me to your profits

More than ever, monetary policy is being dictated by the virus

Could the policy response to Covid-19 lead to a resurgence in inflation?

EU agrees on budget and recovery fund: A step towards more integration

China’s 2Q GDP and June economic data improve on post-COVID rebound

Is the Fed reducing liquidity?

Could we see another round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S.?

Our views on the current A-share rally

Why should investors consider Sustainable Investing?

When it comes to fixed income, do you like high yield?

Enhance yields with Chinese bonds in the zero interest rate era

Will investing in European equities ever pay off?

When will we finally see a market correction?

Should investors be concerned with another round of risk aversion?

Why are people talking about Brexit risks...again?

Is it Europe’s time to shine?

The European Central Bank levels up its stimulus efforts

Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?

The Fed’s balance sheet: To infinity and beyond

Will the Fed cause inflation?

How will COVID-19 affect Sustainable Bonds?

Has all EM behaved the same way this year?