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Guide to the Markets

The Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

Guide to Alternatives

Get insights on macro topics such as manager dispersion, while also diving into real estate, private credit, private equity and hedge funds and more.

Eye on the Market

Eye on the Market offers timely commentary and views on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios from Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy.

Global Asset Allocation Views 3Q 2023

The economy faces slightly subtrend growth, with risks in both directions. We maintain a duration overweight, upgrade equity to neutral, remain neutral on credit and keep a slight overweight to cash. As stock-bond correlations follow inflation lower we favor selectively adding more risk-on positions.

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Global Equity Views 3Q 2023

Our portfolio managers are becoming more optimistic. Profit forecasts are getting more realistic, so far earnings have held up well, and valuations look much more attractive than they did a year ago.

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Global Fixed Income Views 3Q 2023

Recession is still our base case scenario, but we’ve lowered it to 55% while raising the likelihood of Sub Trend Growth to 40%. Our Crisis (5%) and Above Trend Growth (0%) scenarios are unchanged. Our top pick: agency mortgage-backed securities.

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Factor Views 3Q 2023

Market reversals challenged many factors in 1Q 2023, though performance remains broadly positive over 12 months. We continue to view factors’ prospects as attractive, particularly equity value. This quarter, we introduce new credit factors.

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