Week in review

• Eurozone manufacturing PMI hit record high of 62.4
• U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 59.0
• UK core CPI slowed to 0.9% y/y

Week ahead

• Japan unemployment rate
• China Markit/Caixin manufacturing PMI
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate

Thought of the week

Manufacturing survey data improved through March in both the U.S. and the Eurozone. The Eurozone index is at an all-time high, which may seem to contradict recent news flow from the region, including the slow pace of vaccine distribution and recently re-imposed mobility restrictions. The timing of the surveys will have had some bearing on this as they occurred before major restrictions were announced. Meanwhile, the pick-up in supplier delivery times as demand comes back faster than supply is also pushing the headline indices higher. Despite these factors the rise in business sentiment indicated by these surveys suggests that companies are prepared to look through short-term set-backs to the economic recovery. Preferring to focus appears to be the continued path for vaccinations and easing of restriction that will come in the months ahead, as well as the expected step up in economic activity that these will deliver in the second half of the year.

Manufacturing survey data surges

Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing

Source: IHS Markit, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.  
Data reflect most recently available as of 24/03/21.

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