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Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.

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LATEST COMMENTARY

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I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.

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Eye on the Market 13th Annual Energy Paper

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.

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Reruns

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Arrested Development

Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.

On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.

Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

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Your Fall 2021 syllabus

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Zoom Room

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In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

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Growing Pains: Renewable Transition in Adolescence

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Tenth Annual Energy Paper

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Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence

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