Insights

Gridlock means greater focus on inflation and the Fed

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for markets after the mid-term U.S. elections.

What is the outlook for long-term returns?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and David Lebovitz, discusses the outlook for the macroeconomic environment and asset class returns based on the 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions.

A glimpse of hope for U.S. and China equities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook for U.S. and China equities after recent economic and policy news. (3-minute read)

Key events to watch out for to gauge China’s policy pivot

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for China’s policy pivot and the investment implications.

Opportunities within fixed income: A trick or a treat?

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for fixed income and the investment implications.

The advantage of high dividend stocks in a stagflationary environment

Explore how dividend paying stocks can help build portfolio resilience against the prospects of high inflation and recession.

Politics and policy: The U.S. midterm elections

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Meera Pandit, discusses the policy and market outlook with regards to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. (3-minute read)

What should investors expect for 3Q22 earnings?

The third quarter earnings season is set to kick-off with the large U.S. banks releasing results. Our current estimate for 3Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $53.82, representing year-over-year (y/y) growth of 3.5% and quarter-over-quarter (q/q) growth of 14.8%.

Are European assets cheap enough?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Vincent Juvyns, Marcella Chow and Hugh Gimber, discusses the outlook of European equities and fixed income. (3-minute read)

After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?

The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.

Why cash is not king

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses why investors should stay invested through an income approach. (3-minute read)

The challenge facing UK policymakers to stabilize sterling markets

This paper discusses the current uncertainties surrounding the UK government and economy, as well as market movements and outlook. (3-minute read)

A strong U.S. dollar and impact on Asian currencies

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses our outlook for the U.S. dollar and its investment implications on Asian assets and currencies. (3-minute read)

Catalysts for growth style outperformance

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the current outlook of growth stocks and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

The pros and cons of U.S. high yield corporate bonds

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook of the U.S. high yield corporate bonds and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

Is it a bad idea to invest in EM equities during a Fed rate hike cycle?

This paper, written by Gabriela Santos and Anjali Balani, discusses the current outlook for EM equities and its investment implications.

Fed policy outlook after Jackson Hole

This paper, written by Tai Hui, summarizes the key takeaways from the Jackson Hole meeting and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

How will the Inflation Reduction Act impact the economy?

This week, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a legislative package that includes climate spending, prescription drug pricing reform, and tax reform, was signed into law. The IRA represents a meaningful commitment to climate goals and should reduce the deficit over the next decade but is unlikely to reduce inflation and will weigh on 2023 profits.

U.S. 2Q22 earnings update: Where have all the earnings gone?

This paper, written by David Lebovitz, Ian Hui and Nimish Vyaz, summarizes the 2Q22 U.S. earnings result and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

Will global central banks’ fight against inflation lead to a global recession?

The broad takeaway is that economic conditions are softening globally, and aggressive central bank tightening is contributing to it. The global economy could avoid a recession if a stronger recovery emanates from China in the second half of 2022, and a soft landing is achieved in regions like the U.S. and Europe, however, that outcome looks increasingly challenging.

The outlook for Asian electronics and internet platforms

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the current situation and development of Asian technology sector with investment implications. (4-minute read)

Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.

The 60/40 Reloaded

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views on enhancing the 60/40 portfolio in today's market environment with investment implications. (4-minute read)

Is an earnings recession in the U.S. imminent?

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views regarding the earnings recession in the U.S. and path of inflation with investment implications. (4-minute read)

China’s economy: a gradual recovery in 2H 2022

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the prospects and views regarding the gradual recovery of China's economy and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Is there a role for private real estate in my portfolio?

What has not come into question is whether investors will need alternative sources of income and diversification. As such, it seems increasingly likely that private real estate will be part of the broader investment conversation in the years to come.

Investors should not lose sight on sustainability as a long-term investment theme

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the sustainability as a long-term investment theme and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

A few thoughts on fixed income

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the fixed income as a portfolio component to prepare for slower growth and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

How are higher rates impacting private markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, describes the situation of private markets under the prospect of higher rates, higher inflation and a slower growth outlook with investment implications. (4-minute read)

Gauging U.S. economic recession risk

While investors will inevitably be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy this week, one question on the back of everyone’s mind would be the risk of a recession in the U.S. (4-minute read)

What should I know about quantitative tightening?

Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.

Rising inflation in Asia and central banks’ response

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses inflation and central bank policy in Asia, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

China stimulus measures: what have been introduced and what is the next key catalyst

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the current China's COVID situation and future policy with its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Should I time the bottom in today’s market?

Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.

Are bonds attractive?

The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.

1Q22 U.S. earnings and current market volatility

A re-rating of valuations has led to negative equity returns year-to-date, but importantly, earnings estimates have continued to trend higher. In an environment of rising rates, earnings will be the key driver of returns. (4-minute read)

Are we in or headed towards a recession?

The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

How do investors navigate market volatility?

The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.

Looking beyond the recent volatility

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, addresses the current volatility in global equity markets and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

When will Chinese supply chain pressures ease?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the current Chinese supply chain under the impact of the COVID-19 wave and Chinese policy, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Pressure on the yen and the yuan

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the driving forces behind recent depreciation pressure in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, and what this means for investors. (4-minute read)

Growth pressure and policy easing in China

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the weakened Chinese economic data in March, and the subsequent policy and investment implications. (4-minute read)

Has the sell-off created an opportunity in growth stocks?

2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic—as well as over the prior cycle—under pressure. (4-minute read)

Should investors hedge the currency when investing in international equities?

Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.

Is market timing worth it during periods of intense volatility?

2022 will likely remain volatile for equity markets, as central banks normalize alongside persistently hot-inflation and geopolitical issues result in prolonged uncertainty.

Should investors be worried about Asia’s food inflation?

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, looks at how food inflation is impacting Asian economies and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)

Where can I find uncorrelated sources of income?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses how alternatives and core real assets can help investors increase diversification in their portfolios and generate uncorrelated sources of income. (4-minute read)

RMB (Remember) the longer-term structural support to Chinese Yuan resilience

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our long term views on the Chinese Yuan and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Piecing together the rate mosaic

This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Jordan Jackson, discusses our expectations for U.S. interest rates and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)

Things to watch out for that would reinforce confidence on Chinese equities

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the latest development in China's policies, and what investors should look out for going forward. (4-minute read)

COVID-19 resurgence weighs on Chinese economy and market

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the market and economic impact of the latest COVID-19 wave in China. (4-minute read)

The glide path to lower inflation

This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, discusses the key drivers within the transitory and sticky components of inflation and presents our thoughts around their paths lower. (6-minute read)

How should investors position for a yield curve inversion?

An inverted yield curve driven by short rates rising more than long-term yields has preceded every US recession since 1960 and is therefore a closely watched metric among investors regarding the outlook for the economy and markets.

Will surging energy prices create stagflation?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks at how recent events have impacted stagflation impulses in different regions, and the implications for investors. (6-minute read)

Answers to the key investor questions on the Russia/Ukraine conflict

As the events in Ukraine continue to unfold, this note seeks to answer the economic and market questions from investors around the world. (6-minute read)

A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

NPC preview: stronger policy support to be expected

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses our expectations for the outcome of China's National People's Congress meeting and the investment implications. (4-minute read)

How would international equities perform during a U.S. boom-bust recession?

In both a U.S. led boom-bust recession and global synchronous growth, international equities could outperform, suggesting a key role for the asset class in portfolio construction.

4Q21 U.S. earnings update

Fourth quarter earnings are off to a solid start and the more cyclical sectors are leading the charge. (4-minute read)

Elevated oil prices could stay for a while

Geopolitical tension in Europe, strong demand recovery and weak supply growth are all contributing to higher oil prices. (4-minute read)

Protecting against inflation: Part 3 – Protecting your capital

Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.

What to expect in China from the Year of the Tiger?

2021 was a year of steady reform introduction by Chinese authorities, focused on the long-term goals of improving the quality of growth and on addressing non-economic priorities like inequality, leverage, and decarbonization.

The short road to tighter policy

This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Jordan Jackson, looks at the outcome of the January FOMC meeting and implications for different asset classes. (8-minute read)

Protecting against inflation: Part 2 – The labour market is key

Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.

Protecting against inflation: Part 1 - Storm in the ports

Inflation is standing at record levels across many markets. Explore our framework for tracking the impact of supply chain disruption on inflation in 2022.

Too Hawkish Too Fast?

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the recent turn to hawkishness of developed market central bank policies and the investment implications.

Why and how to re-think the 60:40 portfolio

The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.

What are President Biden’s policy priorities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.

Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.

What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.

What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.

Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.

Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?

A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.

Could we see another round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S.?

China’s stock markets have been experiencing a strong rally since last week, and the upward momentum seems to be building further.

Is it Europe’s time to shine?

Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?

June 2, 2020

Will the Fed cause inflation?

The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.

Has all EM behaved the same way this year?

Year-to-date, emerging market (EM) equities are down -17.6%, as a combination of the COVID-19 recession and the oil price shock has led to downward revisions to earnings expectations, as well as weaker currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.

Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now

While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.

What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.

What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.

COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever

The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.

Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?

Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control.

The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market

Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.

How vulnerable are emerging markets?

Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.

Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?

Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia

China set to advance stimulus efforts

As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.

A COVID-driven spike in claims

Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.

The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.

What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.

The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability

In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.

Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?

Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.

Equity markets fall into correction

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.

Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?

The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.

What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020

Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks?

The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.

What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?

China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.

Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.

Is the U.S.-China trade war over?

Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.

Should investors still worry about US-China trade?

The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.

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Insights to empower better decisions

Our flagship Insights

Guide to the Markets

Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

Guide to Alternatives

Market Commentary

Gridlock means greater focus on inflation and the Fed

What is the outlook for long-term returns?

A glimpse of hope for U.S. and China equities?

Key events to watch out for to gauge China’s policy pivot

Opportunities within fixed income: A trick or a treat?

The advantage of high dividend stocks in a stagflationary environment

Politics and policy: The U.S. midterm elections

What should investors expect for 3Q22 earnings?

Are European assets cheap enough?

After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?

Why cash is not king

The challenge facing UK policymakers to stabilize sterling markets

A strong U.S. dollar and impact on Asian currencies

Catalysts for growth style outperformance

The pros and cons of U.S. high yield corporate bonds

Is it a bad idea to invest in EM equities during a Fed rate hike cycle?

Fed policy outlook after Jackson Hole

How will the Inflation Reduction Act impact the economy?

U.S. 2Q22 earnings update: Where have all the earnings gone?

Will global central banks’ fight against inflation lead to a global recession?

The outlook for Asian electronics and internet platforms

Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

The 60/40 Reloaded

Is an earnings recession in the U.S. imminent?

China’s economy: a gradual recovery in 2H 2022

Is there a role for private real estate in my portfolio?

Investors should not lose sight on sustainability as a long-term investment theme

A few thoughts on fixed income

How are higher rates impacting private markets?

Gauging U.S. economic recession risk

What should I know about quantitative tightening?

Rising inflation in Asia and central banks’ response

China stimulus measures: what have been introduced and what is the next key catalyst

Should I time the bottom in today’s market?

Are bonds attractive?

1Q22 U.S. earnings and current market volatility

Are we in or headed towards a recession?

How do investors navigate market volatility?

Looking beyond the recent volatility

When will Chinese supply chain pressures ease?

Pressure on the yen and the yuan

Growth pressure and policy easing in China

Has the sell-off created an opportunity in growth stocks?

Should investors hedge the currency when investing in international equities?

Is market timing worth it during periods of intense volatility?

Should investors be worried about Asia’s food inflation?

Where can I find uncorrelated sources of income?

RMB (Remember) the longer-term structural support to Chinese Yuan resilience

Piecing together the rate mosaic

Things to watch out for that would reinforce confidence on Chinese equities

COVID-19 resurgence weighs on Chinese economy and market

The glide path to lower inflation

How should investors position for a yield curve inversion?

Will surging energy prices create stagflation?

Answers to the key investor questions on the Russia/Ukraine conflict

A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

NPC preview: stronger policy support to be expected

How would international equities perform during a U.S. boom-bust recession?

4Q21 U.S. earnings update

Elevated oil prices could stay for a while

Protecting against inflation: Part 3 – Protecting your capital

What to expect in China from the Year of the Tiger?

The short road to tighter policy

Protecting against inflation: Part 2 – The labour market is key

Protecting against inflation: Part 1 - Storm in the ports

Too Hawkish Too Fast?

Why and how to re-think the 60:40 portfolio

What are President Biden’s policy priorities?

Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?

Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?

Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?

Could we see another round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S.?