Week in review
- China GDP grew 4.3% y/y in 2Q26
- U.S. inflation increased 3.5% y/y in June
- China exports increased 27% y/y in June
Week ahead
- China 1Y loan prime rate
- Korea 2Q26 GDP growth
- Japan June inflation rate
Thought of the week
China’s 2Q26 GDP miss highlighted a recovery that remains within target but is losing momentum. Growth slowed to 4.3% year over year, while first-half growth of 4.7% stayed inside the official range. The divide remains clear: exports, advanced manufacturing, and technology-linked supply chains are supporting activity, while weak consumption, contracting investment, and persistent property stress continue to drag on domestic demand. Industrial profits have improved, but not enough to signal a broad reflation cycle. The data should increase expectations for a more supportive policy tone, though likely through targeted measures rather than large-scale stimulus. The key is whether policy can broaden demand beyond export-led and high-tech sectors, while market leadership may remain tied to structural upgrading and global competitiveness.
China real GDP
Year-over-year change

Source: FactSet, National Bureau of Statistics China, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 16/07/2026.
Market data

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Currencies’ return are based on foreign currencies per U.S. dollar. An appreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be positive and a depreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be negative.