Could the recent banking sector stress persuade the Fed to go slow?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent bank failures and our expectations of the March FOMC meeting results.
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Market Commentary
Is 2% still the magic number for central banks?
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the Fed's 2% inflation target and our expectations of the inflation trajectory.
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A weaker U.S. dollar should support EM and Asian assets
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the outlook for U.S. dollar and the key factors driving its performance with investment implications.
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The impact of higher interest rates on housing and consumers
Learn whether rising interest rates could cause a housing market crash and what it means for consumers.
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China NPC preview
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides the preview of the National People's Congress annual session and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
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The path ahead for Japan’s monetary policy
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Shogo Maekawa, Jennifer Qiu and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for Japan's monetary policy and its investment implications.
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Navigating rates and growth uncertainty within fixed income
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our views on growth and rates, as well as the outlook for different fixed income assets. (3-minute read)
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4Q22 U.S. Earnings: The calm before the storm?
This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas, discusses the 4Q22 U.S. earnings results so far and the investment implications. (3-minute read)
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Disagreement between the Fed and investors could bring more volatility
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses U.S. growth and inflation, as well as expectations of the Fed's upcoming rate decisions.
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The spillover effects of China’s reopening
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the impact of China’s reopening on tourism, trade and inflation.
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Marking the bottom of the Chinese economic cycle
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy with update on latest GDP number and situation of COVID-19. (3-minute read)
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A policy party to end 2022
This paper, written by Tai Hui, Chaoping Zhu, Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, discusses continued hawkishness among DM central banks and China's Central Economic Work Conference.
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China market: buoyant market sentiment along a bumpy road to recovery
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy and CNY in light of the recent easing of COVID restrictions and upcoming policy conferences.
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All eyes on U.S. consumers this holiday season
This paper, written by Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the mixed outlook for U.S. consumer spending given lower savings rate, real wage growth and consumer sentiments.
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Just how bad (or good) is economic growth?
The prevailing economic resiliency coincides with softening inflation, which gives the Federal Reserve an opportune window of slowing inflation but solid growth to tighten monetary policy to an appropriately restrictive stance and maintain that level for a period of time before growth starts to bite.
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Gridlock means greater focus on inflation and the Fed
This paper, written by Meera Pandit, Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for markets after the mid-term U.S. elections.
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What is the outlook for long-term returns?
This paper, written by Tai Hui and David Lebovitz, discusses the outlook for the macroeconomic environment and asset class returns based on the 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions.
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A glimpse of hope for U.S. and China equities?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook for U.S. and China equities after recent economic and policy news. (3-minute read)
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Key events to watch out for to gauge China’s policy pivot
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for China’s policy pivot and the investment implications.
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Opportunities within fixed income: A trick or a treat?
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for fixed income and the investment implications.
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The advantage of high dividend stocks in a stagflationary environment
Explore how dividend paying stocks can help build portfolio resilience against the prospects of high inflation and recession.
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Politics and policy: The U.S. midterm elections
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Meera Pandit, discusses the policy and market outlook with regards to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. (3-minute read)
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What should investors expect for 3Q22 earnings?
The third quarter earnings season is set to kick-off with the large U.S. banks releasing results. Our current estimate for 3Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $53.82, representing year-over-year (y/y) growth of 3.5% and quarter-over-quarter (q/q) growth of 14.8%.
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Are European assets cheap enough?
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Vincent Juvyns, Marcella Chow and Hugh Gimber, discusses the outlook of European equities and fixed income. (3-minute read)
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After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?
The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.
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Why cash is not king
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses why investors should stay invested through an income approach. (3-minute read)
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The challenge facing UK policymakers to stabilize sterling markets
This paper discusses the current uncertainties surrounding the UK government and economy, as well as market movements and outlook. (3-minute read)
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A strong U.S. dollar and impact on Asian currencies
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses our outlook for the U.S. dollar and its investment implications on Asian assets and currencies. (3-minute read)
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Catalysts for growth style outperformance
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the current outlook of growth stocks and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
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The pros and cons of U.S. high yield corporate bonds
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook of the U.S. high yield corporate bonds and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
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Is it a bad idea to invest in EM equities during a Fed rate hike cycle?
This paper, written by Gabriela Santos and Anjali Balani, discusses the current outlook for EM equities and its investment implications.
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Fed policy outlook after Jackson Hole
This paper, written by Tai Hui, summarizes the key takeaways from the Jackson Hole meeting and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
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How will the Inflation Reduction Act impact the economy?
This week, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a legislative package that includes climate spending, prescription drug pricing reform, and tax reform, was signed into law. The IRA represents a meaningful commitment to climate goals and should reduce the deficit over the next decade but is unlikely to reduce inflation and will weigh on 2023 profits.
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U.S. 2Q22 earnings update: Where have all the earnings gone?
This paper, written by David Lebovitz, Ian Hui and Nimish Vyaz, summarizes the 2Q22 U.S. earnings result and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
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Will global central banks’ fight against inflation lead to a global recession?
The broad takeaway is that economic conditions are softening globally, and aggressive central bank tightening is contributing to it. The global economy could avoid a recession if a stronger recovery emanates from China in the second half of 2022, and a soft landing is achieved in regions like the U.S. and Europe, however, that outcome looks increasingly challenging.
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The outlook for Asian electronics and internet platforms
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the current situation and development of Asian technology sector with investment implications. (4-minute read)
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Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world
Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.
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The 60/40 Reloaded
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views on enhancing the 60/40 portfolio in today's market environment with investment implications. (4-minute read)
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Is an earnings recession in the U.S. imminent?
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views regarding the earnings recession in the U.S. and path of inflation with investment implications. (4-minute read)
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China’s economy: a gradual recovery in 2H 2022
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the prospects and views regarding the gradual recovery of China's economy and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
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Is there a role for private real estate in my portfolio?
What has not come into question is whether investors will need alternative sources of income and diversification. As such, it seems increasingly likely that private real estate will be part of the broader investment conversation in the years to come.
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Investors should not lose sight on sustainability as a long-term investment theme
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the sustainability as a long-term investment theme and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
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A few thoughts on fixed income
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the fixed income as a portfolio component to prepare for slower growth and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
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How are higher rates impacting private markets?
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, describes the situation of private markets under the prospect of higher rates, higher inflation and a slower growth outlook with investment implications. (4-minute read)
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Gauging U.S. economic recession risk
While investors will inevitably be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy this week, one question on the back of everyone’s mind would be the risk of a recession in the U.S. (4-minute read)
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What should I know about quantitative tightening?
Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.
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Rising inflation in Asia and central banks’ response
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses inflation and central bank policy in Asia, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
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China stimulus measures: what have been introduced and what is the next key catalyst
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the current China's COVID situation and future policy with its investment implications. (4-minute read)
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Should I time the bottom in today’s market?
Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.
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Are bonds attractive?
The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.
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1Q22 U.S. earnings and current market volatility
A re-rating of valuations has led to negative equity returns year-to-date, but importantly, earnings estimates have continued to trend higher. In an environment of rising rates, earnings will be the key driver of returns. (4-minute read)
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Are we in or headed towards a recession?
The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.
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How do investors navigate market volatility?
The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.
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Looking beyond the recent volatility
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, addresses the current volatility in global equity markets and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
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When will Chinese supply chain pressures ease?
This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the current Chinese supply chain under the impact of the COVID-19 wave and Chinese policy, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
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Pressure on the yen and the yuan
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the driving forces behind recent depreciation pressure in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, and what this means for investors. (4-minute read)
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Growth pressure and policy easing in China
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the weakened Chinese economic data in March, and the subsequent policy and investment implications. (4-minute read)
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Has the sell-off created an opportunity in growth stocks?
2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic—as well as over the prior cycle—under pressure. (4-minute read)
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Should investors hedge the currency when investing in international equities?
Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.
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Protecting against inflation: Part 3 – Protecting your capital
Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.
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Protecting against inflation: Part 2 – The labour market is key
Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.
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Why and how to re-think the 60:40 portfolio
The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.
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What are President Biden’s policy priorities?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.
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Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.
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What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?
This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.
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What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.
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Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.
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Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?
A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.
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Could we see another round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S.?
China’s stock markets have been experiencing a strong rally since last week, and the upward momentum seems to be building further.
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Is it Europe’s time to shine?
Is it Europe’s time to shine?
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Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?
June 2, 2020
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Has all EM behaved the same way this year?
Year-to-date, emerging market (EM) equities are down -17.6%, as a combination of the COVID-19 recession and the oil price shock has led to downward revisions to earnings expectations, as well as weaker currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.
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Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now
While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.
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What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.
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What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.
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COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever
The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.
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What are some of the long-term structural changes from the COVID-19 pandemic?
This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an analysis of the potential long-term investment implications from COVID-19.
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Are U.S. equity valuations sustainable?
April 28, 2020
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Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?
Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control.
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The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market
Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.
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How vulnerable are emerging markets?
Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.
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Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?
Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia
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China set to advance stimulus efforts
As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.
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A COVID-driven spike in claims
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.
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The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.
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What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.
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The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability
In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.
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Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
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What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?
It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.
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How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?
Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.
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Equity markets fall into correction
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.
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Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?
The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.
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What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020
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Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks?
The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.
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What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?
China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.
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Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.
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Is the U.S.-China trade war over?
Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.
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Should investors still worry about US-China trade?
The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.
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