Currency winners and losers of the commodity price squeeze
When reviewing the impact of the rises in commodity prices on currency markets some clear winners and losers emerge.
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Currency
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Assessing the value of the Swiss franc
The Swiss franc has a long history as a store of value. With inflation in the major economies reaching levels not seen in decades, the franc has continued to rise in nominal terms, even if media attention has focused more on gold and crypto.
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The Fed balance sheet and the dollar
The Federal Reserve has been shifting its stance over recent months in response to a labour market showing signs of reaching ‘full’ employment along with uncomfortably high levels of inflation.
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Why are currencies calm amid rates repricing?
Over the last few months markets have priced significant additional policy tightening from global central banks in response to a widespread acceleration in inflation. This phenomenon has been global in nature, catalysed by changes in outlook and policy from smaller central banks but also affecting the largest markets.
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Is hedging leading to an alpha opportunity for the yen?
The Japanese yen has been a popular currency to own during over the past few months by virtue of its negative correlation with equities.
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Finding value in passive hedging
The increased level of interest rate volatility in the currency swap market has received considerable attention from market participants.
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The euro as a funding currency
A couple of key trends in capital flows suggest the role of euro funding is growing, and we outline the near-term implications for currency markets.
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Market misconceptions on Scandinavian currencies
Since the start of 2013, consensus forecasts for the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone have been persistently bullish and persistently wrong.
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Why the US dollar may not be as overvalued as you think
We believe the US dollar is currently experiencing a rare structural change in valuation level that means it may be far less overvalued than is widely believed.
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Currencies through an ESG lens
We believe a well-designed, tailored approach to using ESG factors for active currency management can be a source of added value for clients over the long term.
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Why is the potential for US currency intervention a topic of interest?
The probability of US unilateral intervention has risen from a tail scenario to one of low-to-moderate probability.
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Will the dollar continue to underperform?
How the dollar trades following the cut in rates, depends to a large extent on whether the rate cuts are mid cycle or recessionary.
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