Week in review
- U.S. headline inflation at 0.2% m/m, above consensus of 0.1% m/m
- Reserve Bank of India held policy rate at 6.5%, changed stance to ‘neutral’
- Bank of Korea cut policy rate by 25bps to 3.25%, in line with consensus
Week ahead
- U.S. retail sales
- European Central Bank monetary policy decision
- China 3Q GDP, Sep industrial production, retail sales and FAI
Thought of the week
The U.S. September CPI inflation print was slightly firmer than consensus expected, but the broad trend of cooling inflation remains largely intact. This is unlikely to derail the Federal Reserve’s plan to cut rates in the months ahead. Instead, all-eyes were on the labour market conditions as initial jobless claims jumped from 225k to a 14-month high at 258k for the week ending 5 October. Digging deeper, manufacturing layoffs in Michigan and some temporary shutdowns in Ohio pushed up claims registration. Plus, Hurricane Helene hit Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, contributing over a quarter the increase in claims. Disruptions to transportation and power could mean a delay in filings, suggesting potentially higher prints to come in the following weeks. Taking these temporary factors into account, the underlying conditions in the job market are better than the headline figures suggest, keeping a soft-landing outlook alive.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (‘000)
Total, SA (LHS), Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina NSA (RHS)
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 11/10/24.
Market data
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