Week in review
- U.S. headline inflation rose 2.4% y/y in February, core at 2.5% y/y
- China TSF slowed to CNY 2380B in February
- Japan GDP expanded 0.3% q/q in 4Q25
Week ahead
- U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision
- China Jan-Feb economic activity
- Bank of Japan interest rate decision
Thought of the week
Despite the benign February inflation report, the conflict in Iran has catalyzed concerns over an energy-driven inflation shock. Brent crude oil prices nearly breached US$ 120 per barrel before retreating later last week. This has elevated market-based 1-year inflation expectations and prompted a significant repricing of the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, with markets now pricing in just one rate cut in 2026, down sharply from earlier expectations, a hawkish shift reflecting heightened geopolitical contributions to upside inflation risks. Nonetheless, forward-looking inflation indicators suggest markets are pricing a relatively contained and transitory shock. Current 1-year inflation swaps remain well below 2022-era levels, while the oil futures curve exhibits meaningful backwardation beyond the near term, signaling expectations for price normalization as supply concerns ease. Crucially, longer-dated inflation swaps have remained anchored, indicating limited risk of de-anchored inflation expectations or sustained inflationary pressures extending into the medium term.
Swap-based inflation expectations
Annualized

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 13/3/2026.
Market data

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Currencies’ return are based on foreign currencies per U.S. dollar. An appreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be positive and a depreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be negative.