On the Minds of Investors

You asked, we answer. On the Minds of Investors tackles the big questions we hear in our conversations with clients – it’s our latest thinking on the issues that matter to you.

Tai Hui

Chief Market Strategist, Asia Pacific

How should Asian investors react to the Omicron variant?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential impact of the Omicron variant and the investment implications for investors.

Could the Fed turn more hawkish on monetary policy?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential path of Fed monetary policy and the investment implications for investors.

Where do we stand on infrastructure spending?

From our vantage point, it seems like a given that the President will sign the bipartisan bill into law. Looking at the budget reconciliation package, a deal will get done but it may come down to the wire.

Will the COVID-19 resurgence derail global recovery?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Kerry Craig, discusses the impact of the recent COVID-19 resurgence in China and other regions, and what it means for investors.

U.S. 3Q21 earnings: Supply pains

Despite a slowdown in 3Q21 economic growth, corporate profits have been better than expected. Investors should use profits as a guide, as rising interest rates could pressure multiples and leave earnings as the main driver of returns.

COP26: Not a failure, not a success

COP26 saw significant announcements in areas such as coal, methane and deforestation, yet progress fell short of the scale required to give us confidence that disruptive climate outcomes can be avoided. Physical climate risks warrant careful consideration for long-term investors.

What is the likelihood of a central bank policy mistake?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Ian Hui and Gareth Lam, discusses whether or not the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are hiking rates too slow or too fast, and what it means for investors.

What are the implications from China’s 3Q 2021 GDP data?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Zhu Chaoping, discusses the investment implications of the newly released 3Q21 GDP data of China.

Are we entering a period of stagflation?

Stagflation has become a hotly debated topic among investors as inflation expectations rise and growth expectations fall. This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses our views on the topic and what it means to investors.

What is the market impact from elections in Germany and Japan?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the market impact of the elections in the third and fourth largest economy in the world, and what this means for investors.

The implications for investors of the German election

Germans head to the polls later this month to elect a new government. With the race to replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor still uncertain, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler sets out the policy agenda of the main parties, considers the most likely coalition scenarios, and looks at how the election may impact the outlook for the German economy and markets.

How to navigate the three challenges in China?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the major challenges faced by China equity and fixed income market, and their investment implications.

What could trigger a market correction?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the possible triggers for a U.S. market correction, and what this means for investors.

Will disappointing payrolls derail the taper?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the recently released U.S. payroll statistics and potential impact on the possibility and path of the U.S. QE tapering policy rollout.

Are Asian central banks turning hawkish?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the near-term possibility that Asian central banks could look to normalize their monetary policy, and what this means for investors.

How would QE tapering impact on investment?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, compares the 2014 tapering with what is happening with U.S. monetary policy now, and what this means for investors.

U.S. 2Q21 earnings

While it may be tempting to chase recent performance, we continue to anticipate that the second half will see interest rates move higher, repricing more in-line with the above-trend pace of economic activity that currently characterizes our forecasts. This should be supportive of cyclical assets broadly, and allow value to outperform growth.

Not growth, not value, but income

This paper, written by Ian Hui, discusses the importance of income generation in the face of uncertainty and volatility.

Four reasons why investors should not underestimate the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund

Explore how the fiscal stimulus provided by the EU's pandemic recovery fund could lead to stronger economic growth and boost demand for European assets.

What now for Chinese equities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the economic policy insights provided by the recent Politburo meeting, and what this means for investors.

How should investors view the recent Chinese equity sell-off?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the Chinese new reforms and the subsequent selling pressure in Chinese equities, and what this means for investors.

Value is back, but growth is not out

Will this year’s value rally continue, or are growth stocks set to regain the initiative? In our latest On the Minds of Investors article, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler examines the basic drivers of value outperformance, and looks at how value stocks may perform in three near-term economic scenarios based on our latest projections.

More inflation pressure from energy prices?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses how the outlook for energy prices will shape the inflation outlook going forward, and what this means for investors.

Normalizing growth and fine-tuning policy

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, breaks down China's 2Q 2021 GDP data, and what this means for investors and Chinese policies going forward.

Why are bond yields so low?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the confluence of both fundamental and technical factors that has led to a decline in government bond yields despite a still-robust outlook for growth, and what this means for investors.

Is a more hawkish Federal Reserve bullish for the USD?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses what the future path of the USD could look like given a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, and what this means for investors.

What are the latest inflation data telling us?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses what investors should make of the strong recent inflation data, and what it means for their investments.

What happens past the peak in growth?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses what investors should expect after the recent slew of robust economic data, and what it means for investors.

What has been going on with cryptocurrencies?

Regardless of one’s personal view, digital assets and cryptocurrencies are becoming an increasingly large part of the global financial system. As such, more and more investors are asking how they should think about them as both investments and currencies.

The implications of carbon pricing initiatives for investors

Could carbon prices be about to rise? Global market strategist Vincent Juvyns looks at the increasing regulatory pressures on carbon pricing, and assesses the potential impact on markets

What’s driving the Chinese yuan stronger and what’s next?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the driving forces behind the recent Chinese yuan rally and what this means for investors.

What does the latest wave of outbreak in Asia mean for Asian equities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the latest wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Asia and vaccination progress with its investment implications to Asian equities.

1Q21 U.S. earnings season

This paper, written by Ian Hui, highlights the outlook of 2021 U.S. earnings and its investment implications.

What role should European equities play in asset allocation?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses why Asian investors may want to look to European equities to provide return-generating potential and diversification benefits to their core equities allocation.

What will higher U.S. taxes mean for the market?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, addresses the recent announcement of U.S. tax increase proposal and its investment implications.

How to protect against the inflation risk?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses how investing in core real assets can help investors hedge the risk of inflation while still creating income.

What does 1Q 2021 Chinese GDP mean for policy and investment?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Chaoping Zhu, breaks down the 1Q 2021 Chinese GDP figures and discusses how this would impact China's fiscal and monetary policies, and subsequently, Chinese investments.

Happy Earth Day!

Over the last 12 months, the global pandemic has shaken our lives in many ways. While good health and social interactions are probably top of mind for most of us, the environment and climate are also among our key concerns.

What is the inflation risk?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the inflation outlook in the U.S. and around the world in the coming months and years, and what this means for investors.

Asia's decade: Getting ahead of the growth opportunity

Rapidly rising incomes in vast populations are set to make Asia the largest contributor to global growth in the 2020s. For investors, the opportunity looks too big to ignore.

How will the Fed’s decision on the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) impact markets?

For better or for worse, banks are required to meet various liquidity and leverage requirements. One ratio that measures a bank’s ability to absorb losses is the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). The SLR formula measures tier 1 capital, which consists mostly of common and preferred stock, as a percent of total leverage exposure.

The impact of ESG factors on portfolio returns

History provides only a limited guide to the implications of ESG factors for returns. We look at the conclusions that can be drawn from the past, and how investors can prepare for the future.

Chinese equities market correction—why and what is next?

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses the drivers behind the recent Chinese equities market correction, and how investors should prepare for what comes next.

Are emerging markets vulnerable to the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the impacts of rising U.S. Treasury yields and stronger U.S. dollar on different emerging markets asset classes.

The case for ESG integration when investing in EM

Explore the strategies that can help investors maintain income and diversification in a post-Covid world of low interest rates and negative government bond yields.

Are commodities entering a supercycle?

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Gareth Lam, discusses the factors driving the recent jump in commodity prices, and whether they are entering a supercycle.

A preview of China National People’s Congress

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides our forecast of what will be discussed and announced in China's National People's Congress on March 5, as well as its implications for investors investing in China.

Inflation worries and the rise in government bond yields

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rise in government bond yields on the back of market expectations of economic recovery in the U.S., upcoming fiscal stimulus and the prospects of high inflation, as well as its implications for different asset classes.

What does Biden's presidency mean for the global climate agenda?

Joe Biden’s presidency is expected to bring increased momentum on tackling climate change. Carbon intensity is likely to become an increasingly important metric in investment decisions.

Why and how to re-think the 60:40 portfolio

The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.

U.S. 4Q20 earnings season

This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Ian Hui, discusses our views on the U.S. 4Q20 earnings season so far and its investment implications.

How should Asian investors handle the current bout of market volatility?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the latest market volatility and its investment implications.

A fresh flock of doves

What are President Biden’s policy priorities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.

When will the vaccines allow for a sustained economic recovery?

Successful vaccine rollout should drive an economic rebound as pent-up spending is unleashed. We assess the timings and market implications.

Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.

Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.

What could upset a happy New Year?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the key market risks heading into 2021.

Should investors worry about inflation?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on central bank policies to address inflation concerns heading into 2021.

What are the implications of rising corporate bond defaults in China?

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.

What does the end of the Fed’s credit facilities mean?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the ending of various Federal Reserve credit facilities in a time of lower fiscal support and weaker economic activity.

Was the 3Q earnings season really that great?

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the 3Q 2020 U.S. earnings results and the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Election 2020: Results and consequences

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Meera Pandit, provides the latest update on the U.S. presidential election and its investment implications.

What should investors do, given the latest surge in COVID-19 in Europe and the U.S.?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rebound in COVID-19 cases and their implications on global markets.

China’s recovery on track

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the latest Chinese GDP data and recovering economy with its investment implications.

Are Chinese authorities worried about the Chinese yuan's strength?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese yuan following its recent strong performance.

What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell's decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.

What is the latest progress of China's economic recovery?

This paper, written by Tai, Hui and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following recent economic data releases.

Why should I invest in equities when they are already so expensive?

This paper, written by Tai, Hui, discusses the positive outlook on global equities despite high valuations.

Can the market bounce back?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the longer-term outlook for equities following the recent sell-off of tech and growth stocks.

What does the Fed’s latest change in monetary policy framework mean for Asian investors?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent statement by the Federal Reserve and its implications on global markets.

What are the implications from the latest review of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the recent discussion between the U.S. and China regarding the Phase One trade agreement.

What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.

Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.

Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?

A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.

Is the Fed reducing liquidity?

July 21, 2020

Our views on the current A-share rally

July 14, 2020

Why should investors consider Sustainable Investing?

Due to COVID-19 and the discussions around social issues and climate change, Sustainable Investing (SI) is more relevant today than ever before.

Could we see another round of fiscal stimulus in the U.S.?

July 8, 2020

When will we finally see a market correction?

At the end of last week, it looked like the equity market pullback that everyone had been expecting was finally beginning to materialize.

Should investors be concerned with another round of risk aversion?

June 16, 2020

Is it Europe’s time to shine?

June 10, 2020

Will the Fed cause inflation?

The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.

Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?

June 2, 2020

How will COVID-19 affect Sustainable Bonds?

covid 19 affect sustainable bonds

Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now

While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.

Does re-opening mean re-orienting equities?

May 28, 2020

What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?

May 19, 2020

COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever

The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.

What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?

May 12, 2020

What are some of the long-term structural changes from the COVID-19 pandemic?

May 5, 2020

Are U.S. equity valuations sustainable?

April 28, 2020

Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?

April 21, 2020

How vulnerable are emerging markets?

April 16, 2020

Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?

April 7, 2020

China set to advance stimulus efforts

March 31, 2020

The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability

March 24, 2020

Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?

March 16, 2020

What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

March 9, 2020

How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?

March 4, 2020

Monetary Medicine of Limited Effectiveness

March 4, 2020

Equity markets fall into correction

February 28, 2020

Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?

February 25, 2020

What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?

February 19, 2020

Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks?

February 11, 2020

What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?

February 5, 2020

What are the investment implications from the coronavirus outbreak?

On the Minds of Investors - January 29, 2020

Should investors worry about inflation?

January 23, 2020

Is the U.S.-China trade war over?

January 16, 2020

Should investors still worry about U.S.-China trade?

December 19, 2019

What is the Federal Reserve’s plan for 2020?

December 12, 2019

Are the latest improvement in manufacturing PMIs a sign of recovery?

December 5, 2019

How are Asian exports faring lately?

November 28, 2019

What to expect from the 2020 U.S. elections?

November 21, 2019

Should we be concerned about the rising inflation in China?

November 14, 2019

Should investors be optimistic on U.S.-China trade negotiations?

November 7, 2019

Will a general election in the UK solve the Brexit impasse?

October 30, 2019

Should we be worried about Chinese growth?

October 24, 2019

Should investor cheer Brexit progress and trade agreement?

October 15, 2019

On the Minds of Investors_20190425

What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?

On the Minds of Investors_20190514

What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?

On the Minds of Investors_20190523

What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?

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What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?