Drawing on the depth and breadth of their market and economic expertise, our global macro strategists offer insight into today's big investment themes to enable more confident portfolio decisions.
You asked, we answer. On the Minds of Investors tackles the big questions we hear in our conversations with clients – it’s our latest thinking on the issues that matter to you.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the fixed income as a portfolio component to prepare for slower growth and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, describes the situation of private markets under the prospect of higher rates, higher inflation and a slower growth outlook with investment implications. (4-minute read)
While investors will inevitably be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy this week, one question on the back of everyone’s mind would be the risk of a recession in the U.S. (4-minute read)
Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses inflation and central bank policy in Asia, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the current China's COVID situation and future policy with its investment implications. (4-minute read)
Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.
The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.
A re-rating of valuations has led to negative equity returns year-to-date, but importantly, earnings estimates have continued to trend higher. In an environment of rising rates, earnings will be the key driver of returns. (4-minute read)
The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.
The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, addresses the current volatility in global equity markets and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the current Chinese supply chain under the impact of the COVID-19 wave and Chinese policy, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the driving forces behind recent depreciation pressure in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, and what this means for investors. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the weakened Chinese economic data in March, and the subsequent policy and investment implications. (4-minute read)
2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic—as well as over the prior cycle—under pressure. (4-minute read)
Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.
2022 will likely remain volatile for equity markets, as central banks normalize alongside persistently hot-inflation and geopolitical issues result in prolonged uncertainty.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, looks at how food inflation is impacting Asian economies and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Jordan Jackson, discusses our expectations for U.S. interest rates and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses how alternatives and core real assets can help investors increase diversification in their portfolios and generate uncorrelated sources of income. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our long term views on the Chinese Yuan and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the latest development in China's policies, and what investors should look out for going forward. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the market and economic impact of the latest COVID-19 wave in China. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, discusses the key drivers within the transitory and sticky components of inflation and presents our thoughts around their paths lower. (6-minute read)
An inverted yield curve driven by short rates rising more than long-term yields has preceded every US recession since 1960 and is therefore a closely watched metric among investors regarding the outlook for the economy and markets.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks at how recent events have impacted stagflation impulses in different regions, and the implications for investors. (6-minute read)
As the events in Ukraine continue to unfold, this note seeks to answer the economic and market questions from investors around the world. (6-minute read)
A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses our expectations for the outcome of China's National People's Congress meeting and the investment implications. (4-minute read)
In both a U.S. led boom-bust recession and global synchronous growth, international equities could outperform, suggesting a key role for the asset class in portfolio construction.
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the recent turn to hawkishness in developed market central bank policies and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, looks at our deep-dive analysis into the forward-looking demand, supply chain issues, inflation and their investment implications. (4-minute read)
The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.
Geopolitical tension in Europe, strong demand recovery and weak supply growth are all contributing to higher oil prices. (4-minute read)
Fourth quarter earnings are off to a solid start and the more cyclical sectors are leading the charge. (4-minute read)
Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.
2021 was a year of steady reform introduction by Chinese authorities, focused on the long-term goals of improving the quality of growth and on addressing non-economic priorities like inequality, leverage, and decarbonization.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Jordan Jackson, looks at the outcome of the January FOMC meeting and implications for different asset classes. (8-minute read)
Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.
Inflation is standing at record levels across many markets. Explore our framework for tracking the impact of supply chain disruption on inflation in 2022.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks at the potential path of U.S. rate hikes and implications for different asset classes (6-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Zhu Chaoping, looks at recently released 4Q21 China economics data, inducing more monetary and fiscal stimulus, and the investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the recent turn to hawkishness in developed market central bank policies and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Zhu Chaoping, discusses China's recent Central Economic Work Conference and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent developments in Japan market, and several fundamental reasons that investors should pay attention to the investment opportunities it could potentially bring.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential impact of the Omicron variant and the investment implications for investors.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Kerry Craig, discusses the impact of the recent COVID-19 resurgence in China and other regions, and what it means for investors.
COP26 saw significant announcements in areas such as coal, methane and deforestation, yet progress fell short of the scale required to give us confidence that disruptive climate outcomes can be avoided. Physical climate risks warrant careful consideration for long-term investors.
From our vantage point, it seems like a given that the President will sign the bipartisan bill into law. Looking at the budget reconciliation package, a deal will get done but it may come down to the wire.
Despite a slowdown in 3Q21 economic growth, corporate profits have been better than expected. Investors should use profits as a guide, as rising interest rates could pressure multiples and leave earnings as the main driver of returns.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Ian Hui and Gareth Lam, discusses whether or not the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are hiking rates too slow or too fast, and what it means for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential path of Fed monetary policy and the investment implications for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Zhu Chaoping, discusses the investment implications of the newly released 3Q21 GDP data of China.
Stagflation has become a hotly debated topic among investors as inflation expectations rise and growth expectations fall. This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses our views on the topic and what it means to investors.
Discover why COP26 is important for investors. Explore the potential investment implications that could come with new climate objectives and commitments.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the market impact of the elections in the third and fourth largest economy in the world, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the major challenges faced by China equity and fixed income market, and their investment implications.
Germans head to the polls later this month to elect a new government. With the race to replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor still uncertain, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler sets out the policy agenda of the main parties, considers the most likely coalition scenarios, and looks at how the election may impact the outlook for the German economy and markets.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the possible triggers for a U.S. market correction, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the recently released U.S. payroll statistics and potential impact on the possibility and path of the U.S. QE tapering policy rollout.
The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.
Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
Top questions on the minds of investors - See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.
What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?
What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?
What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?
What does the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector reclassification mean for equities?
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On the Minds of Investors - January 29, 2020
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While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.
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Due to COVID-19 and the discussions around social issues and climate change, Sustainable Investing (SI) is more relevant today than ever before.
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A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the recent discussion between the U.S. and China regarding the Phase One trade agreement.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent statement by the Federal Reserve and its implications on global markets.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the longer-term outlook for equities following the recent sell-off of tech and growth stocks.
This paper, written by Tai, Hui, discusses the positive outlook on global equities despite high valuations.
This paper, written by Tai, Hui and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following recent economic data releases.
This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell's decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese yuan following its recent strong performance.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the latest Chinese GDP data and recovering economy with its investment implications.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rebound in COVID-19 cases and their implications on global markets.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Meera Pandit, provides the latest update on the U.S. presidential election and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the 3Q 2020 U.S. earnings results and the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the ending of various Federal Reserve credit facilities in a time of lower fiscal support and weaker economic activity.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on central bank policies to address inflation concerns heading into 2021.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the key market risks heading into 2021.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the latest market volatility and its investment implications.
This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Ian Hui, discusses our views on the U.S. 4Q20 earnings season so far and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the near-term possibility that Asian central banks could look to normalize their monetary policy, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, compares the 2014 tapering with what is happening with U.S. monetary policy now, and what this means for investors.
While it may be tempting to chase recent performance, we continue to anticipate that the second half will see interest rates move higher, repricing more in-line with the above-trend pace of economic activity that currently characterizes our forecasts. This should be supportive of cyclical assets broadly, and allow value to outperform growth.
This paper, written by Ian Hui, discusses the importance of income generation in the face of uncertainty and volatility.
Explore how the fiscal stimulus provided by the EU's pandemic recovery fund could lead to stronger economic growth and boost demand for European assets.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the economic policy insights provided by the recent Politburo meeting, and what this means for investors.
Will this year’s value rally continue, or are growth stocks set to regain the initiative? In our latest On the Minds of Investors article, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler examines the basic drivers of value outperformance, and looks at how value stocks may perform in three near-term economic scenarios based on our latest projections.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the Chinese new reforms and the subsequent selling pressure in Chinese equities, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses how the outlook for energy prices will shape the inflation outlook going forward, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, breaks down China's 2Q 2021 GDP data, and what this means for investors and Chinese policies going forward.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the confluence of both fundamental and technical factors that has led to a decline in government bond yields despite a still-robust outlook for growth, and what this means for investors.
At the end of last week, it looked like the equity market pullback that everyone had been expecting was finally beginning to materialize.
The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.
covid 19 affect sustainable bonds
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