On the Minds of Investors | J.P. Morgan Asset Management

You asked, we answer. On the Minds of Investors tackles the big questions we hear in our conversations with clients – it’s our latest thinking on the issues that matter to you.

Tai Hui

Chief Market Strategist, Asia Pacific

LATEST COMMENTARY

Could the recent banking sector stress persuade the Fed to go slow?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent bank failures and our expectations of the March FOMC meeting results.

Is 2% still the magic number for central banks?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the Fed's 2% inflation target and our expectations of the inflation trajectory.

A weaker U.S. dollar should support EM and Asian assets

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the outlook for U.S. dollar and the key factors driving its performance with investment implications.

China NPC preview

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides the preview of the National People's Congress annual session and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

The path ahead for Japan’s monetary policy

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Shogo Maekawa, Jennifer Qiu and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for Japan's monetary policy and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

4Q22 U.S. Earnings: The calm before the storm?

This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas, discusses the 4Q22 U.S. earnings results so far and the investment implications. (3-minute read)

Navigating rates and growth uncertainty within fixed income

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our views on growth and rates, as well as the outlook for different fixed income assets. (3-minute read)

Disagreement between the Fed and investors could bring more volatility

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses U.S. growth and inflation, as well as expectations of the Fed's upcoming rate decisions. (3-minute read)

Marking the bottom of the Chinese economic cycle

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy with update on latest GDP number and situation of COVID-19. (3-minute read)

The spillover effects of China’s reopening

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the impact of China’s reopening on tourism, trade and inflation. (3-minute read)

A policy party to end 2022

This paper, written by Tai Hui, Chaoping Zhu, Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, discusses continued hawkishness among DM central banks and China's Central Economic Work Conference. (3-minute read)

China market: buoyant market sentiment along a bumpy road to recovery

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy and CNY in light of the recent easing of COVID restrictions and upcoming policy conferences. (3-minute read)

All eyes on U.S. consumers this holiday season

This paper, written by Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the mixed outlook for U.S. consumer spending given lower savings rate, real wage growth and consumer sentiments. (3-minute read)

Gridlock means greater focus on inflation and the Fed

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for markets after the mid-term U.S. elections. (3-minute read)

A glimpse of hope for U.S. and China equities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook for U.S. and China equities after recent economic and policy news. (3-minute read)

What is the outlook for long term returns?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and David Lebovitz, discusses the outlook for the macroeconomic environment and asset class returns based on the 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. (3-minute read)

Key events to watch out for to gauge China’s policy pivot

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for China's policy pivot and the investment implications. (3-minute read)

The advantage of high dividend stocks in a stagflationary environment

This paper, written by Paola Toschi and Vincent Juvyns, discusses the outlook for high dividend stocks in the current market environment and its investment implications.

Opportunities within fixed income: A trick or a treat?

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for fixed income and the investment implications. (3-minute read)

What should investors expect for 3Q22 earnings?

This paper, written by Nimish Vyas, summarizes the results from the 3Q22 earnings season so far and the outlook for equity markets.

Politics and policy: The U.S. midterm elections

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Meera Pandit, discusses the policy and market outlook with regards to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. (3-minute read)

Are European assets cheap enough?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Vincent Juvyns, Marcella Chow and Hugh Gimber, discusses the outlook of European equities and fixed income. (3-minute read)

After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?

The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.

Why cash is not king

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses why investors should stay invested through an income approach. (3-minute read)

The challenge facing UK policymakers to stabilize sterling markets

This paper discusses the current uncertainties surrounding the UK government and economy, as well as market movements and outlook. (3-minute read)

A strong U.S. dollar and impact on Asian currencies

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses our outlook for the U.S. dollar and its investment implications on Asian assets and currencies. (3-minute read)

Catalysts for growth style outperformance

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the current outlook of growth stocks and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

The pros and cons of U.S. high yield corporate bonds

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook of the U.S. high yield corporate bonds and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

Fed policy outlook after Jackson Hole

This paper, written by Tai Hui, summarizes the key takeaways from the Jackson Hole meeting and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

U.S. 2Q22 earnings update: Where have all the earnings gone?

This paper, written by David Lebovitz, Ian Hui and Nimish Vyaz, summarizes the 2Q22 U.S. earnings result and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

The outlook for Asian electronics and internet platforms

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the current situation and development of Asian technology sector with investment implications. (4-minute read)

The 60/40 Reloaded

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views on enhancing the 60/40 portfolio in today's market environment with investment implications. (4-minute read)

Is an earnings recession in the U.S. imminent?

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views regarding the earnings recession in the U.S. and path of inflation with investment implications. (4-minute read)

China’s economy: a gradual recovery in 2H 2022

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the prospects and views regarding the gradual recovery of China's economy and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Investors should not lose sight on sustainability as a long-term investment theme

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the sustainability as a long-term investment theme and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

A few thoughts on fixed income

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the fixed income as a portfolio component to prepare for slower growth and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

How are higher rates impacting private markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, describes the situation of private markets under the prospect of higher rates, higher inflation and a slower growth outlook with investment implications. (4-minute read)

Gauging U.S. economic recession risk

While investors will inevitably be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy this week, one question on the back of everyone’s mind would be the risk of a recession in the U.S. (4-minute read)

What should I know about quantitative tightening?

Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.

Rising inflation in Asia and central banks’ response

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses inflation and central bank policy in Asia, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

China stimulus measures: what have been introduced and what is the next key catalyst

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the current China's COVID situation and future policy with its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Should I time the bottom in today’s market?

Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.

Are bonds attractive?

The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.

1Q22 U.S. earnings and current market volatility

A re-rating of valuations has led to negative equity returns year-to-date, but importantly, earnings estimates have continued to trend higher. In an environment of rising rates, earnings will be the key driver of returns. (4-minute read)

Are we in or headed towards a recession?

The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

How do investors navigate market volatility?

The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.

Looking beyond the recent volatility

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, addresses the current volatility in global equity markets and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

When will Chinese supply chain pressures ease?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the current Chinese supply chain under the impact of the COVID-19 wave and Chinese policy, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.

Pressure on the yen and the yuan

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the driving forces behind recent depreciation pressure in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, and what this means for investors. (4-minute read)

Growth pressure and policy easing in China

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the weakened Chinese economic data in March, and the subsequent policy and investment implications. (4-minute read)

Has the sell-off created an opportunity in growth stocks?

2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic—as well as over the prior cycle—under pressure. (4-minute read)

Should investors hedge the currency when investing in international equities?

Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.

Too Hawkish Too Fast?

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the recent turn to hawkishness in developed market central bank policies and its investment implications.

Chain Reaction

This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, looks at our deep-dive analysis into the forward-looking demand, supply chain issues, inflation and their investment implications. (4-minute read)

COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever

The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.

Protecting against inflation: Part 3 – Protecting your capital

Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.

On the Minds of Investors_20191114

Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

On the Minds of Investors_20191010

Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.

On the Minds of Investors_20191024

Top questions on the minds of investors. See what your peers are asking and read answers from our team of Global Market Strategists.