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Last week was packed with monetary policy meetings, with most central banks in Asia and developed markets opting to keep policy rates unchanged. Each had their own domestic reasons for this decision, but a common factor was the high level of uncertainty on U.S. trade policies. The FOMC, too, is showing signs of increased uncertainty, as shown in the latest Summary of Economic Projections. Notably, the risk weight on GDP is sizably further biased to the downside while the risk weight on inflation is tilted to the upside—echoing the 2022 episode. Juggling between risk of higher inflation and lower growth, there was little change on the median dot plot, which still shows two rate cuts for this year. However, with core PCE projections for the next two years unchanged, this likely suggests that the Fed views the inflationary impact of tariffs as transitory. Moreover, Powell’s dovish-lean comment at the press conference, which downplays inflation risks, are also positives for both equity and bond markets.
Risks to real GDP growth and core PCE inflation
Diffusion indexes
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, JP Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 21/03/25.
Market data
0903c02a82467a72
All returns in local currency unless stated otherwise.
Currencies’ return are based on foreign currencies per U.S. dollar. An appreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be positive and a depreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be negative.
Diversification does not guarantee positive returns or eliminate risk of loss.
The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.
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