Eye on the Market is a timely commentary that offers views on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios. The author, Michael Cembalest, is the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Check out the latest:
Fed Zeppelin: Is the Fed making a mistake?
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market. This decision was made despite the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years. Does that make sense? Also, a possible deal with China.
Mountains and molehills: Achievements and distractions on the road to decarbonization
Michael discusses this year’s Eye on the Market Energy paper. Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world’s de-carbonization challenges, Germany’s energy transition and Trump’s War on Science.
Short People: the market rebound, and what comes next
Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.
Just Do It
If progressive politicians and journalists want to advocate for redistribution of income via 70% tax rates on high income earners, then just do it. But don’t use the argument that “income tax rates on the rich used to be much higher in the past” as justification for it, since the top 1% paid around the same amount relative to income back then as they do now.
The Decline of Western Centralization, Part II
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks. While we expect US GDP and profits to continue to rise in 2019, unresolved trade issues, slowing global growth and a move by the Trump administration away from its 2017 market-friendly policies are likely to cap a post-correction rebound. All things considered, it looks like a volatile, positive single-digit year for diversified portfolios in 2019.
Bear market barometer
Given what's been going on, I wanted to give you a brief synopsis of what has taken place on one page, and a sense for the degree of pessimism now priced into markets. We will get into greater detail in the 2019 Outlook.
Good luck with that
In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
Private equity forecast: plenty of dry powder
In today’s special issue Eye on the Market, Michael takes a close look at the question of rising committed and unspent capital in private equity, and implications for investors.
In this month’s podcast, Michael looks at the midterms: GOP gains in the Senate, an historic loss in the House given economic and market conditions, and what it means for investors.
How business cycles end: implications for investors
A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years.
2018 has been another year of American exceptionalism in equity markets, with our enthusiasm tempered by the tech-dependence of equity returns, high valuations, fading stimulus and constitutional/tariff risks.
The song remains the same
Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market, The song remains the same. Michael reviews current market dynamics, walks through four investment strategies that have performed well over multiple cycles as this one enters its latter stages, and shares his thoughts on the Helsinki summit.
The room where it happens
Michael Cembalest comments on the self-inflicted wounds of the Section 301 tariffs, a recap of a meeting he had with a group of Congressmen and Senators to discuss debt, deficits, and more.
Michael Cembalest discusses the underappreciated risks of Chinese retaliation against US companies doing business in China, and how a full-blown trade war and military conflict are far from inevitable.
The Arc and the Covenants
Michael Cembalest takes a unique look at US states, cities, and counties using his signature comprehensive debt ratio. While municipalities have time to address underfunded obligations, some face difficult trade-offs.
The Late Show
Michael Cembalest considers why despite strong US earnings growth and global expansion, equity markets remain flattish in 2018.