The market cap of four hyperscalers and the semiconductor ecosystem companies they rely on has grown from $3 trillion to $18 trillion in just a few years, and a broader group of 42 AI related companies has generated 65%-75% of S&P 500 earnings, profits and capital spending since ChatGPT’s launch in November 2022. Is this moat really indestructible?

In this year’s Outlook we focus on four medium term risks: US power generation constraints, China scaling the moat on its own, Taiwan and a “metaverse moment” for hyperscaler profits after $1.3 trillion of capex and R&D. We conclude with a few pages on everything else, including a history of populism for investors.

Click here for important information.