Little Red Wagon: a preliminary assessment of 2022 midterm election results
After the 2018 midterms, I published the chart below since I thought it was notable that the GOP lost so many House seats at a time of robust economic and market conditions. Of course, House losses by the President’s Party do not always track these four quadrants that neatly. In 1922, many voters reacted negatively to Harding’s prohibition policies despite better than average market conditions. In 1942, voters reacted negatively to the early stages of FDR’s war effort, emerging scarcity of goods and frustrations around wage restrictions and price controls at a time of the largest House majority on record by either party (334 pre-midterm seats), despite improving economic conditions after the Depression. And in 1966, the Vietnam War and negative reactions to New Deal policies led to Democrats losing 47 seats despite better than average economic conditions at the time.
That said, here’s a preliminary read on the 2022 midterm elections based on the New York Times forecast of a net loss of 11 Democratic seats in the House, a figure which of course could change. If it holds, the President’s party will have done better than expected given below-average economic and market conditions. I will refrain from speculating on the reasons for this, but you all know what they might be. And to be clear, the NYT projection of seat changes would result in the GOP regaining control over the House by roughly the same small margin that Democrats had, which was the smallest governing margin in almost 100 years (see chart, below). I consider the market consequences of the midterms to be negligible given broader business cycle issues in play.
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With respect to countries in Latin America, the distribution of this material may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. We may offer and/or sell to you securities or other financial instruments which may not be registered under, and are not the subject of a public offering under, the securities or other financial regulatory laws of your home country. Such securities or instruments are offered and/or sold to you on a private basis only. Any communication by us to you regarding such securities or instruments, including without limitation the delivery of a prospectus, term sheet or other offering document, is not intended by us as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or instruments in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or a solicitation is unlawful. Furthermore, such securities or instruments may be subject to certain regulatory and/or contractual restrictions on subsequent transfer by you, and you are solely responsible for ascertaining and complying with such restrictions. To the extent this content makes reference to a fund, the Fund may not be publicly offered in any Latin American country, without previous registration of such fund’s securities in compliance with the laws of the corresponding jurisdiction. Public offering of any security, including the shares of the Fund, without previous registration at Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission— CVM is completely prohibited. Some products or services contained in the materials might not be currently provided by the Brazilian and Mexican platforms.
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCBNA) (ABN 43 074 112 011/AFS Licence No: 238367) is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Material provided by JPMCBNA in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Please inform us if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to be a Wholesale Client at any time in the future.
JPMS is a registered foreign company (overseas) (ARBN 109293610) incorporated in Delaware, U.S.A. Under Australian financial services licensing requirements, carrying on a financial services business in Australia requires a financial service provider, such as J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL), unless an exemption applies. JPMS is exempt from the requirement to hold an AFSL under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Act) in respect of financial services it provides to you, and is regulated by the SEC, FINRA and CFTC under U.S. laws, which differ from Australian laws. Material provided by JPMS in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. The information provided in this material is not intended to be, and must not be, distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons in Australia. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Act. Please inform us immediately if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to be a Wholesale Client at any time in the future.
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