This compilation includes all of our research to-date on the coronavirus. All sections on infection, mortality, economic and market data are updated as data becomes available, often on a daily basis.
What’s new: US consumer tracker using real time credit and debt data and virus severity (Section 1); The search for second waves of infection (Section 2); Vaccine update on Moderna, Oxford and Sinovac (Section 4).
Our research to-date on the coronavirus:
- High frequency national recovery summary
- State reopening status and virus litmus tests
- Real time credit and debit spending data, and the impact of state policy and virus severity
- Other trackers: mobility, manufacturing, retail, air travel, geolocation, oil, hotels, housing, etc.
- Global COVID infection snapshot (trends, declines from peak levels and GDP)
- Regional/US monitors: tracking recent changes in infection rates, weighted by GDP
- The search for second waves of infection
- Developed and developing world infection time series by country
- How did Asia do it, and can we trust the Chinese data?
- Stimulus impact on credit and equity valuations
- Special focus: COVID and the unfunded obligations of US states
- Special focus: A long history of market bottoms
- Understanding the basics and the timelines for anti-viral and vaccine development
- Mixed news on Remdesivir, and the latest on Moderna, Oxford, and Sinovac vaccines
- Convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibodies
- The chloroquine controversy, and the dubious premise of the BCG vaccine
- Understanding infectiousness, antibodies and PCR tests
- Roche’s serology test set a new bar for accuracy (sensitivity and specificity)
- Latest serology results and implications for higher levels of immunity
- COVID case fatality rates by country and US state, with estimates of “true” infection fatality rates
- Case fatality rates vs fatalities per mm people
- COVID mortality and age: understanding the 4 main calculations (case fatality rates, mortality probabilities, infection fatality rates and proportionate mortality), with examples from around the world
- US working age population by age and industry
The appendix includes epidemiological, healthcare and historical information that we have compiled since the inception of the virus. Sections include testing rates by country; survival times of the virus on different surfaces; history on the Spanish Flu; the importance of rapid response times in a virus and the global cost of Chinese information repression; weather patterns and influenza; and a primer on reproductive numbers and contact tracing.
This compilation incorporates research and feedback from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, Harvard Medical School, the University of Toronto Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Washington University Biomedical Sciences Department, the Imperial College of London Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health.
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