Weekly Market Recap
Asia Pacific
29/07/2019
Week in review
Week ahead
- 30/07 – JP – BOJ policy meeting
- 01/08 – Global – Manufacturing PMI
- 01/08 – U.S. – FOMC meeting
- 02/08 – U.S. – Light Vehicle sales, Nonfarm Payrolls
Thought of the week
The S&P500 and Nasdaq broke record highs again last Wednesday. Earnings season has been mixed, but perceived progress on trade talks, relatively positive economic data and expectation of a July cut to the U.S. federal fund rate are buoying the U.S. equity market. So far, the latest round of earnings has shown slowing revenue growth and margin contraction, but a strong trend of share buybacks has been supportive for EPS growth. Looking forward to 2020, current consensus earnings growth estimates of 11% looks to be increasingly challenging with softening growth and higher cost pressures stemming from a still tight labor market. As such, downward revisions might be on the horizon. Amid a low but positive earnings growth environment, structural opportunities still remain in cyclical sectors, though high valuations should be taken into consideration. Income will continue to play a critical role in buffering against volatility and as slower earnings growth limits upside.
Chart of the week
S&P 500 2Q EPS consensus estimates
Index, Mar. 2019 = 100