Our Market Strategists dive into the major topics and locations impacting the markets and investors.
Recent economic and employment indicators have improved markedly in recent weeks. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appropriately acknowledged this recent strength, while continuing to reassure investors it would not act prematurely in pulling back monetary support.
The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and the passing of a further USD 1.8trillion fiscal package has brightened the economic outlook and today’s meeting gave investors a gauge on how this might adjust monetary policy in the years ahead.
The pandemic would always have demanded a dramatic response in terms of easy monetary and fiscal policy. However, policy responses have been shaped not just by the needs of the present but by the lessons of the past.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the potential path for China’s policy normalization after the country’s economy recovered from COVID-19.
It is hard to remember a time when Brexit was not dominating British headlines, but at the midnight hour, UK and EU negotiators finally reached agreement on a new trade deal. This piece addresses the key questions surrounding the deal: what is covered, how does it impact the outlook for the UK economy, and what are the market implications?
Several major news outlets are now projecting that the Democrats will win the two remaining Senate races following Tuesday's run-offs in Georgia.
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the recovery of various Asian economies from the COVID-19 pandemic and discusses the near-term and longer-term regional outlook.
Turbulence defines today’s investment environment, with great waves of uncertainty surging from the pandemic, the election, fiscal policy and a slowdown in what had been, to this point, a sharp recovery from a very deep recession. The waves of uncertainty should fade in 2021 and, as they do so, the primary role of interest rates in determining asset class returns should reassert itself.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, gives our prospects about China’s upcoming 14th five-year plan. To be approved in October and implemented during 2021 to 2025, this plan will have profound impacts to Chinese economy and financial market.
This paper, written by David Kelly, addresses the FOMC's September meeting announcement.
The lack of policy action from the ECB is much more to do with the reduced effectiveness of the remaining options at its disposal rather than the ECB being comfortable with the current state of the economy.
All the analysis investors need as America selects its next president
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Yeo, provides a framework for comparing the policy responses and risks faced by Asian economies from the pandemic.
Notes on the week ahead from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Karen Ward, provides a framework for tracking COVID-19 infection rates globally, monitoring the impact on economic activity using high frequency or daily data, and assessing the economic linkages that could serve to transmit economic stress.
As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to maintain the current Federal funds target rate at a range of 0.00%–0.25% and the interest paid on excess reserves (IOER) at 0.10%. In addition, the committee will maintain its current pace of gross purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities at roughly $80 billion and $90 billion per month, respectively.
Equity markets have rebounded quickly from their March lows on the back of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy response. Although technology and healthcare are holding up relatively well compared to the more cyclical parts of the equity market, 2Q2020 should mark a low point for earnings.
After four days of negotiations the European Union (EU) council has come to an agreement on a EUR 1,074 billion Multiannual Financial Framework and a EUR 750 billion Next Generation EU recovery fund.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the rebound in Chinese economic activity and its implications for investors.
Discover the 2020 edition of J.P. Morgan's Investment Outlook; gain insights from our team’s broad view on the major economies and asset markets globally.
One of the best trades to put on in the aftermath of the financial crisis was going long high yield. Spreads blew out to nearly 18% in November 2008, implying a default rate of almost 30%. Looking back, this is far from what actually materialized, as default rates on U.S. high yield peaked at a level of 11% in November of the following year. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) becoming increasingly active in credit markets, we have been getting more and more questions on the outlook for high yield; the bottom line is that while valuations are not terribly compelling, the near-term path for credit spreads may be tighter.
This paper, written by Ian Hui and Chaoping Zhu, looks at the attractiveness of the Chinese bond market in the current global environment.
To frame the balance sheet discussion, we consider the impact to real GDP, employment and inflation under each recovery scenario.
This paper, written by Jai Malhi, examines the European Central Bank meeting outcome and its investment implications.
This paper addresses the FOMC's April meeting announcement.
This paper, written by Tillman Galler and Kerry Craig, discusses the latest movements in the oil markets amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.
This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Tyler Voigt, reviews the 1Q 2020 U.S. earnings results and the significant volatility that has taken place.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discussed the performance and outlook of Chinese economy, policies amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.
This paper, written by David Lebovitz, Alex Dryden, and Jack Manley, reviews the latest U.S. Fed increased liquidity actions and its investment implications.
This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Meera Pandit, reviews the surge in U.S. initial claims for unemployment and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.
This paper written by Dr. David Kelly updates the latest on the coronavirus impact to global markets.
This paper, written by David Kelly, provides an update on the investment implications of COVID-19.
This paper, written by Karen Ward, highlights the recent rate cut by the Bank of England and its investment implications.
This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Tyler Voigt, highlights the short-term and long-term uses of corporate cash investors could take advantage of within their portfolios.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, Hannah Anderson and Meera Pandit, addresses the upcoming U.S. election and its investment implications.
This paper, written by David M. Lebovitz and Tyler J. Voigt, reviews 4Q19 U.S. earnings with performance of various sectors and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Dr. Jasslyn Yeo, explains why cyclical tailwinds support a positive stance for Asia ex-Japan equities this year, and why persisting secular headwinds mean that the investment case for Asia ex-Japan growth stocks remains strong.
Market Strategists provide commentary and analysis on the latest events and their likely impact on the markets and investing.
Today’s actions from the European Central Bank (ECB) were at the upper end of market expectations.