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Coronavirus (COVID-19) research compilation

This compilation includes all of our research to-date on the coronavirus. The high frequency charts on infection, mortality, economic and market data will be updated as data becomes available; asterisks (*) indicate sections with recent updates. 

What’s new: more detailed infection/mortality charts, China lockdown tracker (Section 1); update on anti-viral development and convalescent plasma (Section 2); impact of Fed announcements on credit markets (Section 3); what happens after the first COVID-19 wave subsides, and the importance of serology testing for COVID antibodies (Section 4)


 

Our research to-date on the coronavirus:

 


Listen to the audio file or subscribe to the podcast to get the latest updates:

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The asterisks below indicate which sections have been updated.*

1. COVID-19 infection tracker charts*

  • Latest infection and mortality rates by country/region/market/state/latitude/temperature/humidity
  • What happens next in China, and can we trust the data? Tracking infections as the lockdown is relaxed
  • US infection and activity tracker
Read more

 


2. Update on anti-viral and vaccine efforts*

  • Understanding the basics and the timelines for anti-viral and vaccine development
  • The Chloroquine Controversy, and the potential for convalescent plasma
  • A history of anti-viral drug development since 1963, and a table of vaccine/anti-viral research underway
Read more

 


3. Market valuations, flows and positioning*

  • Fixed income spread tracker for money markets and credit markets
  • Current US and European market valuations, and implied volatility
  • Leveraged fund and asset manager US equity futures positions, and quantity on loan of SPY ETF
  • A history of asset prices bottoming before crisis indicators improve
Read more

 


4. What happens after the first COVID-19 wave is over?*

  • On herd immunity, serology tests and returning to “normal”
Read more

 


5. “John Stuart Mill, the virus, and the road from ruin to recovery”, Eye on the Market

  • Economic history of calamity and recovery since the 1700’s
  • What’s priced into markets from COVID-19 compared to prior earnings recessions
Read more

 


6. Virus response times, China and information repression

  • The importance of rapid response times: a lesson from the Spanish Flu epidemic
  • The consequence of Chinese information repression on outbreak severity in Wuhan
Read more

 


7. Geographic vulnerability bands, contact tracing and surface transmission

  • COVID-19 outbreak patterns as a function of latitude, temperature and relative humidity
  • Temperature, humidity, sunlight and other seasonal factors observed in SARS and influenza epidemics
  • What does it take to control a virus outbreak (the importance of timely and aggressive contact tracing)
  • The important difference between initial and effective virus transmission factor (Ro) estimates
  • How long does COVID-19 last on different surfaces?
Read more

 


8. Appendix materials*

  • The limited value of infection prediction models
  • COVID-19 vs Spanish flu: the role of secondary bacterial infections and W-shaped mortality
  • Mortality and reproductive numbers for communicable diseases
  • US outbreak forecast; country healthcare data
Read more

 

This compilation incorporates research and feedback from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, Harvard Medical School, the University of Toronto Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Washington University Biomedical Sciences Department, the Imperial College of London Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health.