On the Minds of Investors
Drawing on the depth and breadth of their market and economic expertise, our global macro strategists offer insight into today's big investment themes to enable more confident portfolio decisions.
For investors, the Fed has laid out a hawkish path for rate increases with the intent to front load rate hikes. With such aggressive tightening this year, recession risks have risen further in 2023.
Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.
While rising interest rates and a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) help to explain what has gone on with valuations, it was not as clear why earnings estimates continued to move higher. Interestingly, however, companies have begun guiding earnings expectations lower in recent weeks, as it appears too difficult to continue ignoring rising costs and economic growth that is decelerating back toward trend.
Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.
The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.
The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.
The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.
The Year of the Tiger was expected to be a year of stabilization for China’s economy and of recovery for its equity market, following last year’s tough Year of the Ox. However, instead of positive surprises, investors have continued to grapple with uncertainties, both new and old.
At the end of the day, active tax management is a way to take advantage of volatility. Volatility is a hallmark of the capital markets, but it also tends to derail investors and undermine their ability to reach their long-term retirement goals.
At its May meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by 0.50% to 0.75%-1.00% and signaled similar 50 basis point rate increases would be on the table for the next couple of meetings.
Since the onset of the pandemic, global supply chains have been stressed, weighing on economic growth and lifting consumer core goods inflation. Supply chain issues had seemed to peak in December, with some encouraging improvement in the first two months of 2022.
Although climate change is a key consideration in sustainable investing, sustainable investing is more broadly about finding companies that are durable in the long run and identifying risks that traditional company analysis may not capture.
U.S. home prices have experienced incredible appreciation over the last decade, with particular strength in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.
With financials kicking off the first quarter earnings season this week, our current estimate for 1Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $51.01 ($42.80 ex-financials), representing year-over-year growth of 7.6%.
The March employment report showed that the U.S. economy continues to recover in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, with the labor force exhibiting signs of multi-generational tightness.
2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic – as well as over the prior cycle – under pressure.
Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.
One of the most critical levers to reduce carbon emissions globally is transportation. Transportation accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with nearly three-quarters coming from passenger travel and road freight.
2022 will likely remain volatile for equity markets, as central banks normalize alongside persistently hot-inflation and geopolitical issues result in prolonged uncertainty.
Last week marked the best week for U.S. equities since November 2020, with the S&P 500 erasing almost half of its year-to-date losses. The S&P 500 is now only down 6.4% versus its max drawdown of 13% in 2022.
For the first time since December 2018, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by a ¼ percent to 0.25%-0.50% at its March meeting and made clear further increases would be appropriate to tame inflation.
Emerging market (EM) equities are underperforming for a second year, down -16.4% year-to-date after last year’s -2.2%.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on commodity markets, we thought inflation might finally see its peak in February.
An inverted yield curve driven by short rates rising more than long-term yields has preceded every US recession since 1960 and is therefore a closely watched metric among investors regarding the outlook for the economy and markets.
While geopolitical tensions have reached a boiling point overseas, American investors have recently faced a set of potentially market-moving events at home: President Biden’s first State of the Union address and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony in front of Congress on monetary policy.
Despite the horrible human and social impact, the conflict in Eastern Europe is currently noise for the market. Time will tell how things evolve, but the key risk is that higher commodity prices – and energy prices in particular – fail to be transitory.
Geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine have been a source of market volatility, especially since February 11th when President Biden warned there was a “very distinct possibility” of a coming Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Since the start of the year, markets have meaningfully repriced expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (the Fed) this year; projections have risen from 2-3 25 basis point (0.25%) increases to 6-7 currently.
In both a U.S. led boom-bust recession and global synchronous growth, international equities could outperform, suggesting a key role for the asset class in portfolio construction.
Time and time again, investors get caught up in the good times and buy an asset when its price is inflated, only to turn around and sell it once optimism has receded and the price has fallen.
Retirement income can be a challenge for many advisors, and advice given to clients has often relied on rules of thumb based on assumptions of how households spend post-retirement.
Regulatory action on carbon emissions is likely to intensify over the coming years, and companies that are actively addressing these risks could have a competitive advantage in the future.
2021 was a year of steady reform introduction by Chinese authorities, focused on the long-term goals of improving the quality of growth and on addressing non-economic priorities like inequality, leverage, and decarbonization.
Fixed income can still play defense during periods of market turbulence and investors would be wise to maintain exposure through a more active approach as rates grind higher.
There are plenty of opportunities across the alternative investment landscape. However, any allocation to alternatives should be outcome-oriented.
2022 and beyond should present investors with those in the form of above trend international growth and stabilization in China.
There was no shortage of market catalysts to begin December, with the emergence of the Omicron variant and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell stirring the markets.
2021 was a better year than expected for U.S. equities, as a 34.5% increase in earnings expectations offset a 7.6% decline in valuations, leading to a price return of 26.9%.
This week, hopes of passing the Build Back Better (BBB) Act, the climate and social spending package, were dashed when Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia said he would not vote for it due to concerns over further stoking inflation and increasing the national debt.
Although lockdowns and restrictions may drag on economic activity in the near term, we see three key drivers of economic growth in 2022.
It is key that employers innovate the employee experience for younger professionals. Explore how employer-sponsored plans can better serve young adults.
Overall, investors should be prepared for an active Fed over the next few years. We expect the Fed to begin raising rates in June, and deliver one hike per quarter thereafter.
The November CPI report showed consumer prices rising at their fastest pace in nearly 40 years as surging gasoline prices, vehicle prices, and owner’s equivalent rent continued to drive inflation upwards.
Although risk assets enjoyed positive returns for most of November, the emergence of a new COVID variant and a hawkish pivot from the Fed prompted a risk-off environment to close the month, with investors positioned accordingly.
Volatility has come roaring back, with the S&P 500 seeing its worst 2-day performance in over a year and the VIX back above 30 for the first time since February.
It is now becoming clear that Chinese policy makers no longer focus exclusively on the quantity of growth, but also on its quality. In addition, several other policy goals are taking priority as well, such as deleveraging, decarbonization, common prosperity and public health.
President Biden voted for continuity in monetary policy with his renomination of Jerome Powell to another four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair. He also elevated Governor Lael Brainard to Vice Chair, replacing Richard Clarida.
Some areas of the agenda were advanced, true progress may have been postponed to the end of 2022, when countries are expected to recommit or strengthen their net zero commitments, which currently fall short of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Rates have experienced some big swings recently, even though they have traded within a fairly narrow range over the past couple of months.
Looking forward, while we don’t yet know which of the previous periods the next cycle will best resemble, the market is currently pricing Fed “liftoff” in mid-2022, with a total of five hikes complete by the end of 2023.
From our vantage point, it seems like a given that the President will sign the bipartisan bill into law. Looking at the budget reconciliation package, a deal will get done but it may come down to the wire.
Investors should not paint all central banks with the same brush stroke as normalization will come in different shades: some central banks are already or close to being on the move, others will remain somewhat patient until next year, while others will remain firmly on hold.
Tapering is not tightening, and while purchases will slow in the months ahead, the balance sheet will still expand by roughly $400 billion from now until mid-2022 and settle at around $9 trillion.
Semiconductors have come into focus as one of the best examples of the supply constraints faced by the global economy.
The last summit in 2015 resulted in the Paris Agreement, an international treaty addressing climate change mitigation (by aiming to limit the increase in global temperatures by 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels), climate adaptation, and climate financing. Therefore, we anticipate meaningful discussion on these topics: achieving net zero, fiscal efforts , climate financing, carbon pricing.
Recent economic data affirms China’s slowdown as the economy normalizes while still facing lingering pandemic obstacles and the consequences of its intentional long-term reforms.
While these fears were warranted following the near technical defaults experienced in 2011 and 2013 due to the same debt ceiling issue, by a narrow vote, the House raised the debt ceiling on October 12th by $480 billion to $28.9 trillion, averting a technical default.
While higher inflation and a recent slowdown in economic growth have stoked stagflation fears amongst investors, we continue to expect inflation to tame in the coming months.
Most investors seem to agree that technological adoption looks set to continue, but more and more we see people questioning the price they are paying for this exposure.
While it was expected that easing pandemic conditions would support demand for oil, the move in spot prices this year has caused investors to question whether these price pressures will persist and lead to higher inflation.
The result of the supply bottlenecks has been slower sales and inventory build-up than desired, depressing growth. In addition, the short supply of goods and services has led to higher prices, with input and output price indices accelerating at record speed this year.
From an investment perspective, elevated uncertainty will likely fuel additional volatility in both equity and credit markets through the first half of October.
Rising volatility reflects a broader distribution of outcomes – clearly, the events of recent weeks have forced investors to broaden their horizons and embrace a wider range of scenarios.
Chinese equities can still provide investors higher return and low correlation to other equity markets, while Chinese bonds can provide higher yields and low correlation to the global bond market.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sent a slightly hawkish signal to markets on its monetary policy outlook, recognizing that the delta variant has slowed economic progress, but also that inflation may prove somewhat stickier than they previously assumed.
Sustainable investing, which considers environmental, social, and governance factors (ESG), is a philosophy most investors are aware of, but not all may fully understand it, as it has evolved meaningfully over the past few years.
As we move into the final months of 2021, it has become increasingly clear that the private market momentum which began to build in the back half of 2020 has shown no sign of abating.
Due to pandemic-related unemployment, funding from payroll taxes is down, but this is expected to be temporary, so it shouldn’t set back the program significantly.
Until there is a resolution on the debt ceiling, net Treasury bill issuance is likely to remain materially negative in the coming month, putting continued downward pressure on short term interest rates.
As tapering moves to the forefront of policy discussions, investors should understand the mechanics of quantitative easing, how money is created and flows into the financial system, and the impact it’s having on financial markets.
With greater attention being paid to younger Americans by the investment management industry, financial professionals are increasingly curious about the what, why and how of Millennial money management.
Extreme weather has prompted policy makers to focus on more resilient infrastructure and investments to mitigate climate change, which has meaningfully exacerbated extreme weather events.
Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.
While a variety of different input costs have been rising, a shortage of semiconductors has led to tight supply and demand dynamics around the world.
Investing in China the right way is key: with a portfolio of companies, listed both offshore and onshore, with a manager that has a local presence and can do long-term fundamental analysis.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the Chinese new reforms and the subsequent selling pressure in Chinese equities, and what this means for investors.
The FOMC statement highlighted the continued improvement in economic conditions due to progress on vaccinations, but noted risks to the outlook still remain, largely reflecting the rise in cases over the past few weeks in unvaccinated communities.
It is reasonable to believe that at some point we will see the U.S. economy return to a trend pace of growth, and furthermore, it would not be surprising for the recovery to be a bit more uneven that was originally anticipated.
Understanding how to properly navigate conversations with Millennials and recognize the unique challenges that face younger investors today are important steps in building a successful relationship with the next generation of wealth.
Generational differences can present a challenge when navigating money management. Discover our best practices for making these conversations more fruitful.
One of the most prevalent concerns among investors today is where inflation is heading next.
With U.S. federal debt at 100.1% of GDP, the highest since World War II and rising, investors wonder what the breaking point could be.
Investors have had to process a torrent of information and wild swings in sentiment so far this year.
The S&P 500 has marched steadily higher from its March 23rd low against a backdrop of investor skepticism. In previous posts, we have discussed how this rally is being driven by three things.
The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.
Global governments have been swift and bold in supporting their economies, building a bridge to get consumers, small businesses and corporates over the present abyss to the other side. Given the unknown breadth and depth of the abyss, more stimulus may be required.
Year-to-date, emerging market (EM) equities are down -17.6%, as a combination of the COVID-19 recession and the oil price shock has led to downward revisions to earnings expectations, as well as weaker currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.
Ultimately, the Fed’s next step will be dictated by the pathway of the virus, says Dryden.
Global markets have roiled in the face of COVID-19 and social distancing, and many investors are looking to “pick up the pieces,” eagerly hunting for the next big opportunity.
While many changes are likely to emerge, one clear trend, with far-reaching macro and market implications, is the increase in leverage, says Azzarello.
Earlier this week, oil prices turned negative for the first time in history, with WTI trading as low as -$37 a barrel.
Over the past two months investors have digested the COVID-19 shock: the fast spread of the virus around the world, the social distancing measures implemented and the resulting economic and earnings recession.
1Q20 earnings season will provide an important first look at how the ongoing pause in global activity is impacting corporate earnings.
The industries most impacted by social distancing account for 20% of payroll employment, and consumer spending across those industries account for 20% of GDP.
Today’s objectively complicated credit market may be an excellent source of future portfolio growth, says Dryden.
Ultimately, how high the unemployment rate gets is dependent on one key question: will American small business fire its workers, says Manley.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.
As economists continue to revise down their 2020 GDP estimates, a lot of clients have been asking us about the potential impact on earnings.
This past Sunday, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) fired a last desperate salvo in an attempt to stabilize financial conditions, the second emergency inter-meeting cut in two weeks.
Coming into this year, we expected an improvement in global economic growth, as 2019’s policy uncertainty clouds dissipated.
The COVID-19 crisis confirms, once again, the value of a diversified portfolio, says David Kelly.
It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.
There is not a clear answer. However, what we can provide perspective on, is where we are finding value, according to David Lebovitz.
Former Vice President Joe Biden made a surprise comeback during the Super Tuesday contests, paving the way for a two-person race to the Democratic nomination.
Even with this Fed action, there will likely be calls for fiscal action to support to businesses suffering from the response to virus fears, says David Kelly.
Sentiment, and valuations, are likely to keep markets relatively contained until there is clarity about the extent and length of the outbreak, says Tyler Voigt.
Equity investors spend a lot time looking for where earnings growth will be strong; what doesn't get as much attention is what happens after they're generated.
Taken at face value, the fall in job openings is concerning and warrants careful monitoring.
Financial markets have fallen sharply on concerns of the coronavirus, a respiratory illness first identified in Wuhan, China, spreading globally.
Equity market valuations have risen substantially in recent months, with the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 now at a level of 18.6x.
Investors are now asking whether inflation could return, threatening the rally in financial markets.
Buying the dip - the coveted strategy (almost) all investors like to employ.
Rising geopolitical tensions with Iran have led to some fears over potential oil supply shocks out of the Middle East.
Rising geopolitical tensions with Iran have led to some fears over potential oil supply shocks out of the Middle East.
Chief Global Strategist
Global Market Strategist
Global Market Strategist
Global Market Strategist
Chief Global Strategist
Global Market Strategist
Global Market Strategist
Global Market Strategist